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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Donny wrote: | ...
"The odds makers aren't stupid they go by history and I other factors when setting the prices"
As far as I know, weight of money (or lack of) determines the odds. It's not their (Crown, Bet 365 etc) opinion. They're not punters. 
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Presumably the betting agencies have to set initial odds, though, before there is any weight of money... The weight of money then shifts it from the anchor point. How long any anchor effects last is the question. |
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qldmagpie67
Joined: 18 Dec 2008
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| K wrote: | | Donny wrote: | ...
"The odds makers aren't stupid they go by history and I other factors when setting the prices"
As far as I know, weight of money (or lack of) determines the odds. It's not their (Crown, Bet 365 etc) opinion. They're not punters.
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Presumably the betting agencies have to set initial odds, though, before there is any weight of money... The weight of money then shifts it from the anchor point. How long any anchor effects last is the question. |
Current there must be a starting market before anyone can place a bet
That is were the historical data and analysts come in
Sidey was always stupid odds in our eyes but in there's they want punters to take the 100/1 then they can shorten it
History stills says he can't win it but history is made to be rewritten
I hope for those who took the juicy odds he gets up and you've all had a scent lick at him |
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Donny 
Formerly known as MAGFAN8.
Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia
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Many did.
For a player's odds to shorten from 100/1 to 40/1, means plenty got on.
_________________
Donny.
It's a game. Enjoy it.  |
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Presti35 
Dick Lee for Legend Status
Joined: 05 Oct 2001
Location: London, England
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I feel that Pendles chance to win the medal has passed. Obvs there's still a lot of games to play, but I don't know if he'll be able to get enough 3's.
Which has me a little surprised that he is sort odds compared to Sidebottom and Grundy.
I guess its still only round 4.
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A Goal Saved Is 2 Goals Earned! |
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Damien 
Me Noah & Flynn @ the G
Joined: 21 Jan 1999
Location: Croydon Vic
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| qldmagpie67 wrote: | | K wrote: | | Donny wrote: | ...
"The odds makers aren't stupid they go by history and I other factors when setting the prices"
As far as I know, weight of money (or lack of) determines the odds. It's not their (Crown, Bet 365 etc) opinion. They're not punters.
... |
Presumably the betting agencies have to set initial odds, though, before there is any weight of money... The weight of money then shifts it from the anchor point. How long any anchor effects last is the question. |
Current there must be a starting market before anyone can place a bet
That is were the historical data and analysts come in
Sidey was always stupid odds in our eyes but in there's they want punters to take the 100/1 then they can shorten it
History stills says he can't win it but history is made to be rewritten
I hope for those who took the juicy odds he gets up and you've all had a scent lick at him |
Why does history say he can’t win it? He’s a mid?
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'Collingwood are the Bradmans of Football'
The Herald - 1930 |
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Donny
Formerly known as MAGFAN8.
Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia
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Martin's firmed, after his 6 goal game, last week. He's now a touch under 3/1.
Mitchell's 7/2.
Dangerfield & Fyfe are next, @ 7 and 8/1.
After tumbling in from the 100/1 to 40s, punters kept wagerring on Sidey. He's now paying $34 on Crown.
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Donny.
It's a game. Enjoy it. |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| What was it like before tumbling in from the 1001 to 40s punters kept wagerring on Sidey ? |
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dalyc 
Joined: 02 Mar 2005
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| Donny wrote: | Many did.
For a player's odds to shorten from 100/1 to 40/1, means plenty got on. |
Not necessarily. Money moves markets but so does information. Bookies weren’t blind and deaf and they aren’t a charity. They saw Sidey’s form and that would have contributed to the move in price just as much as bets taken.
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Four legged animals good, two legged animals better |
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Donny
Formerly known as MAGFAN8.
Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia
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I think that's incorrect but I'll research.
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Donny.
It's a game. Enjoy it. |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| I'm glad you got a laugh out of it. |
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dalyc
Joined: 02 Mar 2005
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| Donny wrote: | | I think that's incorrect but I'll research. |
I’ll bet ya
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Four legged animals good, two legged animals better |
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Donny
Formerly known as MAGFAN8.
Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia
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I emailed Crown.
Reply:
"odds within a market will fluctuate based on the number of bets being placed and on which selections"
Yep. Not blind and deaf. Also, not punters.
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Donny.
It's a game. Enjoy it. |
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Piesnchess
piesnchess
Joined: 09 Jun 2008
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Jesus, or rather, Grundy, WILL win the Brownlow, lock it in !!!!!!
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Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb. |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| dalyc wrote: | | Donny wrote: | Many did.
For a player's odds to shorten from 100/1 to 40/1, means plenty got on. |
Not necessarily. Money moves markets but so does information. Bookies weren’t blind and deaf and they aren’t a charity. They saw Sidey’s form and that would have contributed to the move in price just as much as bets taken. |
The Only thing that moves markets is money. If bookies went with their heart (as you're suggesting) they'd be gambling and they don't do that.
Their markets are framed so they can't lose.
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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dalyc
Joined: 02 Mar 2005
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Ok so consider this. In October, a Horse is 50-1 to win the Melbourne Cup. He then wins the Caulfield Cup running away by 4 lengths. I can guarantee you the a minute after the race the horse would be 10-1 or shorter for Melbourne Cup without a bet being taken. How do I know this? Because I’ve worked in the gambling industry for 20 years.
Yes, money moves markets but so does information.
It’s why bookies employ various people to gather information and use this info to gain an edge.
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Four legged animals good, two legged animals better |
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