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Dave The Man 
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| Post subject: 2018 Ladder Prediction |  |
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GWS
ADELAIDE
SYDNEY
PORT ADELAIDE
MELBOURNE
WESTERN BULLDOGS
ESSENDON
GEELONG
RICHMOND
FREMANTLE
WEST COAST
ST KILDA
NORTH
HAWTHORN
CARLTON
Gold Coast
Collingwood
Brisbane
_________________
I am Da Man |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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Hmm, so with a softer draw and an average losing margin of 18 points in 2017, we are going to drop a few more spots in 2018.
Well at least the number two pick will be one of the King twins ( Dragons ) |
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Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| Pies2016 wrote: | Hmm, so with a softer draw and an average losing margin of 18 points in 2017, we are going to drop a few more spots in 2018.
Well at least the number two pick will be one of the King twins ( Dragons ) |
IF I am Right(Though I hope Not) we would have good Pick to Draft a Gun KPF or Help in a Possible Lynch Trade(Which I doubt will Happen)
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I am Da Man |
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qldmagpie67
Joined: 18 Dec 2008
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| Post subject: Re: 2018 Ladder Prediction | |
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| Dave The Man wrote: | GWS
ADELAIDE
SYDNEY
PORT ADELAIDE
MELBOURNE
WESTERN BULLDOGS
ESSENDON
GEELONG
RICHMOND
FREMANTLE
WEST COAST
ST KILDA
NORTH
HAWTHORN
CARLTON
Gold Coast
Collingwood
Brisbane |
David the only way that ladder is right is if we have massive injuries and basically struggle to field 22 players each week.
I'm no expert but we are much better than your prediction
I'll do my ladder now
GWS - 17 wins
Adelaide - 16 wins
Sydney - 15 wins
Melbourne - 15 wins
Port Adelaide - 14 wins
Geelong - 14 wins
Collingwood - 13.5 wins
Richmond - 13 wins
St Kilda - 13 wins
West Coast - 12 wins
Bulldogs - 12.5 wins
Essendon
Hawthorne
Fremantle
Carlton
Brisbane
North
Suns |
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ronrat
Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: Thailand
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This prediction will come back to bite you DTM. If this is testament to your footballing knowledge.
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Annoying opposition supporters since 1967. |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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Just one observation Dave.
Blues have already lost their current best and fairest for the season to injury ( Docherty ) and Gibbs has traded clubs.
That's a big a call to think they would finish above us at this stage. |
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MatthewBoydFanClub
Joined: 12 Feb 2007
Location: Elwood
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That ladder is just ridiculous Dave. We have 17 clubs going forwards and one club, in GCS going backwards. Look at Brisbane for instance. They have McCubbage and now Raynor and a gun forward in Hopgood. They are going to get better. Then you have Carlton who have lost Gibbs, but they have picked up some gun recruits and so they're getting better. Then you have the Suns, who represent the perils of changing coach midstream, by an inpatient admin, who should keep their noses out of the football department. Football decisions become political decisions, whereby they pick up Weller from Freemantle and screw up one of the best national drafts in years.
So where does that leave us? With a massive headache trying to keep ahead of the other clubs in a similar position to us trying to get better and injecting their teams with a lot of elite talent from the draft, like us. I'm confident we will play better football in 2018 than 2017, but will it be good enough to win us a spot in the final 8 at the end of the season. I don't know the answer to that question. |
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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| Post subject: Re: 2018 Ladder Prediction | |
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| Dave The Man wrote: | GWS
ADELAIDE
SYDNEY
PORT ADELAIDE
MELBOURNE
WESTERN BULLDOGS
ESSENDON
GEELONG
RICHMOND
FREMANTLE
WEST COAST
ST KILDA
NORTH
HAWTHORN
CARLTON
Gold Coast
Collingwood
Brisbane |
I’ll give you $10 if we finish in the bottom four, Dave. I think we’ll be in the 8-5 zone at year end.
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Two more flags before I die! |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Going by the money, the punters have the ladder looking like this....
Crows
Swans
Giants
Tigers
Cats
Power Bombers
Dees
Pies
Dogs
Hawks
Eagles
Dockers
Saints
Blues
Lions
Kangas
Suns
We're $1.95 to make the 8, $4.50 to make the top 4 & $23 to win the flag.
Treloar is 20/1 to have the most disposals in the season and 33/1 for the Brownlow.
Rising Star odds;
Stephenson $23
Brown $26
Daicos $31
Kirby $34
I've backed Daicos and have taken the 66/1 on offer for Steele to win the Brownlow.
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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glasseyevfx
Joined: 01 Jul 2017
Location: Gold Coast
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I'm not a gambler but I think that betting figures are derived by the popularity of the expectation as much as prediction. So if a heap of Pies die hards bet on them to make the top four it effects the odds. Or am I wrong?
Besides this I believe Dave is off the mark and we will finish low to mid eight in a very even season.
.....Ahh finals....
ADELAIDE
RICHMOND - not pretenders
GWS - too confident - could drop further
MELBOURNE
COLLINGWOOD
SYDNEY - sliding
ESSENDON
WESTERN BULLDOGS - last grasp at the window
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PORT ADELAIDE
GEELONG - too many eggs in too few hands
HAWTHORN
WEST COAST - rebuild
BRISBANE - big lift
ST KILDA
FREMANTLE
GOLD COAST
NORTH
CARLTON - happy days (probably not tho)
_________________
We shall set our course by the stars and not ships that pass in the night |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| glasseyevfx wrote: | I'm not a gambler but I think that betting figures are derived by the popularity of the expectation as much as prediction. So if a heap of Pies die hards bet on them to make the top four it effects the odds. Or am I wrong?
Besides this I believe Dave is off the mark and we will finish low to mid eight in a very even season.
.....Ahh finals....
ADELAIDE
RICHMOND - not pretenders
GWS - too confident - could drop further
MELBOURNE
COLLINGWOOD
SYDNEY - sliding
ESSENDON
WESTERN BULLDOGS - last grasp at the window
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PORT ADELAIDE
GEELONG - too many eggs in too few hands
HAWTHORN
WEST COAST - rebuild
BRISBANE - big lift
ST KILDA
FREMANTLE
GOLD COAST
NORTH
CARLTON - happy days (probably not tho) |
That is correct... to an extent. Smart punters use the weight of money for sides that realistically aren't in the race and blow out the price of true contenders and then pounce.
I backed Richmond at 14/1 to win the flag, 8 weeks before the finals. 
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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Pebbles Rocks
Joined: 28 Sep 2008
Location: Collingwood
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| Post subject: Re: 2018 Ladder Prediction | |
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| Dave The Man wrote: | GWS
ADELAIDE
SYDNEY
PORT ADELAIDE
MELBOURNE
WESTERN BULLDOGS
ESSENDON
GEELONG
RICHMOND
FREMANTLE
WEST COAST
ST KILDA
NORTH
HAWTHORN
CARLTON
Gold Coast
Collingwood
Brisbane |
Why do you start using small caps for the last 3 teams?
_________________
"You must be a parking ticket, cuz you got fine written all over you" Glen Quagmire |
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qldmagpie67
Joined: 18 Dec 2008
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| Skids wrote: | Going by the money, the punters have the ladder looking like this....
Crows
Swans
Giants
Tigers
Cats
Power Bombers
Dees
Pies
Dogs
Hawks
Eagles
Dockers
Saints
Blues
Lions
Kangas
Suns
We're $1.95 to make the 8, $4.50 to make the top 4 & $23 to win the flag.
Treloar is 20/1 to have the most disposals in the season and 33/1 for the Brownlow.
Rising Star odds;
Stephenson $23
Brown $26
Daicos $31
Kirby $34
I've backed Daicos and have taken the 66/1 on offer for Steele to win the Brownlow. |
Skids love your optimism mate but the odds don't make much sense to me really.
Our chances based on recent history I would suggest we should be a tad longer to make the 8-4 and win the Comp
We never seem to poll well in the rising star for what ever reason. Our last real chance was Beams who finished 3rd by memory outside of that we've even struggled to get a nomination.
Sidey at 66-1 for the Brownlow is massive unders. He has on,h once polled double digits (last season he polled 14 votes) before that his next best vote tally was 9. For whatever reason again he doesn't seem to attract the attention of the umpires.
Pendles will always take votes from him likewise Adams and Treloar also players like Grundy Howe JDG will also take votes from him. Sidey doesn't do anywhere near enough to poll the votes required. For some reason players like Dangerfield Martin who are involved in the game it's seems more often in a positive manner than Sidey always poll well. It's been that way through out recent history at least. Think Voss Buckley Judd Black Harvey Hird they always seemed to be at the absolute forefront of there teams winning games. They were all noted for being match winners Sidey doesn't fall into that category
Looking at voting in recent times it suggests the umpires like players who do many different things in a game but mainly it seems impact score word, run and carry, win loads of ball, have patches of absolute brilliance during a game or always seem to have the ball on hand. That's how the votes are cast.
Players like Zorko polled well in a side struggling for a win like wise Beams who polled 17 votes for his 3rd top 10 finish. Outside of them the lions barely mustered a vote. The point is when the lions were going well in games they were to 2 names at the forefront.
For mine if I was to back any of our players it would be Pendles or Trelaor there our only realistic chances anyone other pies player should be 100-1 or longer |
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Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| ronrat wrote: | | This prediction will come back to bite you DTM. If this is testament to your footballing knowledge. |
Glad to know that you think I have no Clue.
<Mod edit: Calm down>
_________________
I am Da Man |
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Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| Post subject: Re: 2018 Ladder Prediction | |
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| Pebbles Rocks wrote: | | Dave The Man wrote: | GWS
ADELAIDE
SYDNEY
PORT ADELAIDE
MELBOURNE
WESTERN BULLDOGS
ESSENDON
GEELONG
RICHMOND
FREMANTLE
WEST COAST
ST KILDA
NORTH
HAWTHORN
CARLTON
Gold Coast
Collingwood
Brisbane |
Why do you start using small caps for the last 3 teams? |
Turned the CapsLock Off
_________________
I am Da Man |
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