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Tom Lynch to Collingwood in 2019?

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BucksIsFutureCoach 



Joined: 12 Feb 2007


PostPosted: Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:44 pm
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K wrote:
mudlark wrote:
K wrote:
Okay, let's pretend we get him. Is he worth the reported $1.3m/yr this would cost? Specifically, is he mobile enough for the way the game has been heading?? Thoughts, Nicksters?

Was Tony Lockett mobile enough??? Probably not we thought and let him go.


Yeah, I have actually wondered exactly how he would go in today's game...

Do you recall, even in his time, there were questions about whether he and Jason Dunstall could fit in the same team? (How a Queenslander qualifies to play in the same team is another question...)


Dunstall was lightening quick on the lead to take the chest mark. The difference between then and now is that defenders cover the space that the forwards lead to. That would have prevented Dunstall from taking a lot of his marks today. However the situation today would have no effect on Lockett's leads. Anyone covering the space that Lockett leads to would be wiped out by Lockett's 110kg frame charging into you. Mind you, Lockett would be serving a lot of suspensions if he was playing today.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:51 pm
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Turns out the club has a flashback video of that game too...

http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/2014-07-04/flashback-1989-state-of-origin

Lockett 5, Dunstall 4. Whitten Medalist you-know-who.
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stui magpie 

suge min pikk


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:24 pm
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Geezus that brings back memories, todays players would refuse to play in conditions like that.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:02 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
Geezus that brings back memories, todays players would refuse to play in conditions like that.

The drainage systems must be so much better nowadays.
I'm all for playing in torrential rain, but not for playing on bogs.
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5 from the wing on debut 



Joined: 27 May 2016


PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:32 pm
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BucksIsFutureCoach wrote:
If we have to start bribing players to play for us, our club is truly stuffed. Treloar and Aish had better offers from other clubs, but came to us because they love the facilities here and love playing for Buckley. If Lynch comes to us next year he'll be set up for life when he retires. We don't have to pay him a million plus a year for the pleasure of playing for us. If that's what he wants he's a mercenary and we'd be better off pursuing KPP's in next year's draft.


Those old enough to remember the Quinlan recruiting fiasco, and the premierships we missed out on as a result, would disagree with you. The club should learn from its mistakes, not repeat them.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:00 pm
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5 from the wing on debut wrote:
BucksIsFutureCoach wrote:
If we have to start bribing players to play for us, our club is truly stuffed. ... If Lynch comes to us next year he'll be set up for life when he retires. We don't have to pay him a million plus a year for the pleasure of playing for us. If that's what he wants he's a mercenary and we'd be better off pursuing KPP's in next year's draft.

Those old enough to remember the Quinlan recruiting fiasco, and the premierships we missed out on as a result, would disagree with you. The club should learn from its mistakes, not repeat them.

What would you advocate in the current case, 5ftwod? Going all out for Lynch? There are quite a few differences from the Quinlan fiasco, such as: the state of the list, the salary cap, the desire or otherwise to switch clubs and come to us, ...
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White Black n Blood 



Joined: 28 Nov 2017


PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:56 pm
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Am i the only one that is yet to see what all the fuss is about with Lynch? Yeah, he's a decent forward but I am not at all convinced he's the saviour a lot of fans are thinking he is. And that's not just Pies fans either.

I think he needs a good year this season coming to get the sort of coin he's wanting. Otherwise we're buying hope and I would rather us purchase known quantities.

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BucksIsFutureCoach 



Joined: 12 Feb 2007


PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:55 am
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White Black n Blood wrote:
Am i the only one that is yet to see what all the fuss is about with Lynch? Yeah, he's a decent forward but I am not at all convinced he's the saviour a lot of fans are thinking he is. And that's not just Pies fans either.

I think he needs a good year this season coming to get the sort of coin he's wanting. Otherwise we're buying hope and I would rather us purchase known quantities.

He has the ability to straighten up our forward line, like Dixon does at Port Adelaide. But he's not the difference between winning and losing, which Port Adelaide found out against the better sides in 2017. The match winners at PA are guys like Wines and Robbie Gray. Similarly at Collingwood, we're relying on guys like Elliot and Treloar to win games of footy. Lynch will help us do that because he will bring those other guys, who are the actual match winners, into the game. Adding to that, if he averages 2 goals a game, he boosts the scoring power of our forward line. Hence he's a needed addition to our forward line if we get him, but he's not the panacea to our forward line woes.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:56 pm
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BucksIsFutureCoach wrote:
White Black n Blood wrote:
Am i the only one that is yet to see what all the fuss is about with Lynch? Yeah, he's a decent forward but ...
I think he needs a good year this season coming to get the sort of coin he's wanting. ...

He has the ability to straighten up our forward line, like Dixon does at Port Adelaide. But he's not the difference between winning and losing, which Port Adelaide found out against the better sides in 2017. The match winners at PA are guys like Wines and Robbie Gray. Similarly at Collingwood, we're relying on guys like Elliot and Treloar to win games of footy. Lynch will help us do that because he will bring those other guys, who are the actual match winners, into the game. Adding to that, if he averages 2 goals a game, he boosts the scoring power of our forward line. Hence he's a needed addition to our forward line if we get him, but he's not the panacea to our forward line woes.


Yeah, there are many interesting things to think about in this specific case, as well as more generally. For example, whether player X would straighten up the forward line or just be an inefficient sink for forward entries. This might be affected not just by X but by the quality of his teammates. Take, for instance, Ben Brown, now pretty successful and in demand. (Some have suggested we should make a play for him.) His pauper teammates choose him as a target a lot, maybe too much. [The AFL website reveals that he was inside 50 target 288 times this year.] And, yes, we could easily have drafted him. In effect, we chose Jesse White instead: the draft pick we gave up for him came before the one used on Brown. You might say this happened because of an unhealthy obsession with finding someone to play the "Leigh Brown role". But actually Ben Brown was rucking in the year before getting drafted. His ruck duties have diminished as (in the temporal sense, but possibly also true in the causal sense) his forward output has increased. Maybe for the CFC recruiters' sakes, he should have changed his name from Ben to Leigh. Wink

On Robbie Gray and Dixon, if we play some sort of word association game, namely "Y is to Lynch as Robbie Gray is to Dixon", it's not clear who Y might be, because, while Dixon is workmanlike, Gray is a genuine star.
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5 from the wing on debut 



Joined: 27 May 2016


PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:17 pm
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K wrote:
5 from the wing on debut wrote:
BucksIsFutureCoach wrote:
If we have to start bribing players to play for us, our club is truly stuffed. ... If Lynch comes to us next year he'll be set up for life when he retires. We don't have to pay him a million plus a year for the pleasure of playing for us. If that's what he wants he's a mercenary and we'd be better off pursuing KPP's in next year's draft.

Those old enough to remember the Quinlan recruiting fiasco, and the premierships we missed out on as a result, would disagree with you. The club should learn from its mistakes, not repeat them.

What would you advocate in the current case, 5ftwod? Going all out for Lynch? There are quite a few differences from the Quinlan fiasco, such as: the state of the list, the salary cap, the desire or otherwise to switch clubs and come to us, ...


In the case of Quinlan, he wanted to play for us, Hafey wanted him, but the board said no to his salary demand. So he went to Fitzroy, a club that had no resources. Shortly afterwards we were paying a fortune to recruit Richmond players, at well above market rates.

I don't believe we should be going all out for Lynch, there has to be limits. But, he is what we need. Midfielders are a dime a dozen. Mobile key goalkicking forwards are not. The salary cap increases from about $10m to $13m between 2017 and 2022. We have a list that won't be demanding large pay increases based upon performance alone. In my business I pay my staff based upon what they produce. That is where the value is, it's not a matter of how long they have been there, or what they might possibly achieve in the future, that is irrelevant. The same applies with football clubs. I can't really think of any players that are bashing the door down with performances that demand that they be paid significantly more.

The increase in the cap will lead to all clubs having more $'s to spend. The aim of the club's management will be to translate that into a recruiting coup rather than just paying mediocre players a lot more to continue to underachieve.

The limiting factors on Lynch being recruited would probably be whether the Suns offer him way overs, even before we get to the restricted free agent negotiating period when they can match, or whether the AFL determine that they want him to stay and then bend the payment rules to ensure that happens.

To put it bluntly, our tall forwards are almost non existent in terms of goal kicking, no-one really knows whether the resting ruck/forward combo will work (fingers crossed on that one but I feel that they are both no.1 ruckmen, not forwards),Moore is reputed to be moved to defence, Lynch is a very good player, and if there is a chance of grabbing Lynch at a cost of only money, then we should pursue it as best we can.
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White Black n Blood 



Joined: 28 Nov 2017


PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:18 pm
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Decent article about it here.

https://themongrelpunt.com/afl/2017/12/31/is-tom-lynch-the-jackpot-or-just-fools-gold

He is gonna be the highest paid player in the AFL. You reckon he's worth it?

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Raw Hammer 



Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter

PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:03 pm
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White Black n Blood wrote:
Am i the only one that is yet to see what all the fuss is about with Lynch? Yeah, he's a decent forward but I am not at all convinced he's the saviour a lot of fans are thinking he is. And that's not just Pies fans either.

I think he needs a good year this season coming to get the sort of coin he's wanting. Otherwise we're buying hope and I would rather us purchase known quantities.


Yes, you’re the only one.

Fuss is warranted.

April 15 2017 vs Carlton. If you have any doubts to his value, do yourself a favour and watch his 7 goal haul.

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swoop42 Virgo

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Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 22

PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:20 pm
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For him to be worth the reported money on offer he'd need to produce Josh Kennedy like numbers going forward from 2019 when he'll enter the season as a 26 year old.

His trajectory is very similar to that of Kennedy (Lynch ahead) and if he can recapture his goal kicking form of 2016 next season he'll be worth every cent.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/T/Tom_Lynch1.html

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/J/Josh_Kennedy0.html

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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:26 pm
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swoop42 wrote:
For him to be worth the reported money on offer he'd need to produce Josh Kennedy like numbers going forward from 2019 when he'll enter the season as a 26 year old.

His trajectory is very similar to that of Kennedy (Lynch ahead) and if he can recapture his goal kicking form of 2016 next season he'll be worth every cent.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/T/Tom_Lynch1.html

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/J/Josh_Kennedy0.html


agree. the value of a gun forward goes far beyond his production. Our biggest problem in 2017 (and in the 2003 Grand Final FWIW) is that we didnt have a person up forward that allowed us the confidence to attack with impunity. great KP forwards create this feeling that all the midfield has to do is kick it forward and they will do the rest. when cloke was at his best, he was that guy. even though cloke only averaged 2.5 goals a game, he was worth about 7 just because the ball kept coming forward and goals just get scored more often whenthe ball is forward.

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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:48 pm
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^^^

Add to that is that he will more often than not, draw two defenders in most of his contests. I would think players like Moore, Cox, Elliot etc, wouldn't believe their luck if Lynch was leading away from them.
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