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Queensland state election

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David Libra

Reel around the fountain


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Anywhere, I don't care I don't care I don't care

PostPosted: Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:01 pm
Post subject: Queensland state electionReply with quote

This one’s pretty intriguing. Labor currently ahead of the LNP at the halfway mark of the count, but they may be forced into minority government again with the Katter Party or Greens. One Nation is yet to pick up a single seat.
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:56 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

According to the ABC, these are the results so far after 67% of the count:

Labor 41 (35.4%) = -2% Swing
LNP 37 (33.4%) = -7.95% Swing
Katter 2 (2.2%) = +0.3% Swing
One Nation 0 (13.5%) = +12.5% Swing
Greens 0 (10.0%) = +1.6% Swing
Other 0 (5.5%) = -4.4% Swing

One Nation a chance to win the seat of Mirani.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/results/

Current ABC projections are:

Labor = 48
LNP = 38
Katter = 3
One Nation = 2
Independent = 2

Need 47 to form government.

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David Libra

Reel around the fountain


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Anywhere, I don't care I don't care I don't care

PostPosted: Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:50 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

I figure Labor need 46 to be comfortable, as Margaret Strelow in Rockhampton is a former Labor MP and likely to back them (I don’t know much about the political leanings of the other independent, Sandy Bolton, who’s a former mayor). If Labor only get 44 or 45, though, the chances of an unlikely LNP/Katter/One Nation coalition become more possible. There’s little way of knowing who the Katters will back this time around – it was the ALP last time, but that was mostly due to their experience under the Newman government, which is now a distant memory.

Some electorates to keep an eye on:

Maiwar: Labor are leading the LNP comfortably on two-party preferred, but the high Greens vote means they could potentially leapfrog the ALP from third place and win the seat. This is probably their only prospect of a seat at this stage.

Macalister: This is still listed as a seat in doubt despite Labor killing the LNP in 2PP. I’m guessing that’s because anti-child abuse campaigner Hetty Johnston is running as an independent and has received an extraordinarily high first preference vote. If she pulls off a miracle and wins, I suspect she’d be more likely to back Labor in a hung parliament.

Thuringowa: Some people seem to think this could go One Nation’s way, but I’m not sure how that could be possible given Labor’s significant 2PP lead over them. Perhaps the LNP are still a chance to sneak a win here if One Nation fall to third – if so, it’s one of the few seats in doubt where they seem to have a chance.

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Past the pub that wrecks your body, and the church, all they want is your money; the Queen is dead, boys, and it's so lonely on a limb...


Last edited by David on Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:52 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

That is a hypothetical question.
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:59 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest ABC projections:

Labor = 49
LNP = 38
Katter = 3
One Nation = 1
Independent = 2

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Pies4shaw 

"Phil had more talent in his little finger than both Abletts combined displayed in their entire careers"


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:15 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-25/qld-election-malcolm-roberts-set-to-lose-ipswich/9193762

Interestingly, the web address of the article contains a less vivid title than the one on the ABC's site, which is "One Nation left without state leader as key Hanson candidates tank".

Even in the last bastion of idiocy, the No Notion folk can't get a foothold.
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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne

PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:47 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

The most wonderful result was Malcolm Roberts getting a clear message to piss off. "Mr denial" continues to deny everything and even denied he lost. I laughed when he started to rant on. Even the One Nation Boss (Ashby) was clearly embarrassed.

Malcolm Turnbull and the LNP are going to have to squash Pauline Hanson again if they want a chance of winning the next Federal Election.
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David Libra

Reel around the fountain


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Anywhere, I don't care I don't care I don't care

PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:53 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to say, after all the talk of this being 1998 all over again – when One Nation famously got 25% of the vote and won 11 seats – the fact that they’re looking at a maximum of one seat and might not even get that is a pretty woeful result. One can look at the fact that 13% voted for them and blame a conspiracy of major parties for freezing them out, but I don’t know how that works this time around given that the LNP actually directed preferences to them.
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Pies4shaw 

"Phil had more talent in his little finger than both Abletts combined displayed in their entire careers"


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:41 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, looking at the quality of their candidates, perhaps they’re tanking for draft picks? Maybe in the future, they’ll field a few Australians as candidates - that might make a difference, I suppose.
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swoop42 Virgo



Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 22

PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:44 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Pauline meeting with her key policy advisor circa 2003.

Rare footage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CcwyFrurUk

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Location: Ballarat!

PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:26 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

One Nation are a joke of a party. Despite an obvious market for a Right Wing party they're bumbling idiots. Preferencing Labor in some seats etc. Idiocy. Bernardi is going to take all their votes that don't go back to the LNP.
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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:28 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

One what?
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David Libra

Reel around the fountain


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Anywhere, I don't care I don't care I don't care

PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:06 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Wokko wrote:
One Nation are a joke of a party. Despite an obvious market for a Right Wing party they're bumbling idiots. Preferencing Labor in some seats etc. Idiocy. Bernardi is going to take all their votes that don't go back to the LNP.


Bernardi’s certainly a smarter operator, but I think the thing he fails to understand is that, despite appearances to the contrary in the tabloids and talkback radio, there aren’t all that many right-wing ideologue voters out there. What One Nation do is tap into vague, sometimes contradictory ideas that ‘non-political’ people might well hold about patriotism, Christian values, protectionism and fear of outsiders; Bernardi, on the other hand, preaches a very specific message to the converted. I’m yet to be convinced that his party will go anywhere, short of a major Liberal Party schism.

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Location: Ballarat!

PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:54 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Still hoping for the shitshow of Abbott joining the Conservatives Laughing
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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne

PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:20 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Wokko wrote:
Still hoping for the shitshow of Abbott joining the Conservatives Laughing
I reckon his plan A will be to challenge Turnbull in one last ditch effort to become PM again. Plan B to shift. Razz
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