Article 12: Midfielder vs the Key tall debate

[inxs88]

With the AFL National Draft looming, whom the Pies select at pick 6 strikes me as the most intriguing and defining selection since the 2005 Draft. Like many fans, we have been crying out for key position players given the exodus in the last 2 seasons of:

* C Gault
* J Marsh
* N Brown
* J Frost
* L Keefe
* M McCathy
* H Schade
* J White

With only the inclusion of Dunn and McLarty to our primary list. As such with Ben Reid, Tyson Goldsack and Lynden Dunn in the final part of their careers, one would assume that Hine shall earmark tall's as a major focus of this draft with talent such as:

* Aaron Naughton: backman, 1st rounder
* Oscar Clavarino: backman, 2-3rd rounder
* Jarrod Brander: forward, 1st rounder
* Harrison Petty: backman, 2nd-3rd rounder
* Oscar Allen: forward, 1st rounder
* Sam Taylor:backman, 1st-2nd rounder

However, with Fremantle securing pick 2 in the draft from the Gold Coast, it shapes as the most interesting variable to what looked like a predictable top 5 in the draft which indicatively are:

1. Brisabne
2. Fremantle
3. Carlton
4. North Melbourne
5. Fremantle
6. Magpies

Why?? Well with the Dockers having 2 bites of the cherry prior to us, there seems to be a strong likelihood that they could take the best midfielder available and the best key position player given their own current declining key position spots.

If they take WA based Naughton as a replacement for Michael Johnson and the never replaced Luke McPharlin, it means that one of the much vaunted top 5 midfielders shall drop to pick 6. Pundits more learned than me suggest that the top 5 in order shall likely be:

1. Cam Rayner
2. Luke Davies Uniacke
3. Paddy Dow
4. Adam Cerra
5. Aaron Naughton (if Dockers take)

It may mean that either a Jaidyn Stephenson or a Andrew Brayshaw whom looks like a "Clayton Oliver bolter" could slip to the Pies. Is this Derek Hine's draft to select? Has Ned Guy got "final cut" so to speak. Most likely it shall be Hine & Co's call given their 2017 research and work.

Aaron Naughton has declared his preference to go to the Pies and this seems to have been precipitated on recruiters catching up with him in Perth recently. For those unfamiliar with him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fweo0J5L3VU


He looks like an aerial gun with exceptional intercepting skills. However, his ball drop and kicking efficiency makes Tom McDonald from the Dees look like Nathan Buckley. Can Pie fans endure another 12 years of poor kicks exiting from defence??

My thoughts are that we should pick Darcy Fogarty:

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/sport/afl/glenelgs-darcy-fogarty-is-this-years-best-afl-draft-prospect-says-list-expert-gary-buckenara/news-story/8d1a792f0dabbb26af6f8102a503a043

Why? He is a hybrid 6ft 4 forward/midfielder with a massive ceiling and given we missed out on a similar type in Charlie Curnow (One of the Treloar picks), I would be excited to see us recruit a player that has versatility, imposing physique and X factor point of difference to our list.

With Dunn having 1-2 years left, Mclarty likely to emerge, Moore going down back to allow Cox to play forward and intercept players such as Scharenberg and Howe excelling, our defence to me seems shored up. Our pick 38 could seemingly look at some of the above listed key position backs such as Clavarino or Petty.

Our forward line needs addressing and if a player like Fogarty has the versatility to assist there in his first 2 seasons and eventually rotate through the mid field, it seems like a no brainer. Combined with our ability to recruit and retain several South Australians, he'll have great mentors such as Grundy and Scharenberg around him.

Either way Draft night each year always is a night of "hope and renewal" and like many Pies fans, shall be glued to the TV and SEN radio whom historically have a far superior coverage to Foxtel whom seemingly lose interest after pick 30.

Our Draft picks available:

Picks 6, 38, 56, 61, 70 (only if we delist one more player)


My hopes are:

Pick 6: Darcy Fogarty
Pick 38: Oscar Clavarino
Pick 56: Liam Ryan (73 goals in WAFL)
Pick 61: Tyler Brown (Father/son)
Pick 70: Marty Hore (Pies Reserves)

If we don't use pick 70 this year, it further diminishes the Sam Murray trade which for those whom don't remember was:

In

S Murray
pick 70 this year
2018 3rd round pick

Out:

our 2018 2nd round pick

The deal would be much more palatable if we used pick 70 on a player such as Marty Hore whom won our Reserves Best and Fairest convincingly in 2017.

Friday night!!! Can't wait.

[On the March]

[inxs88]

[Pies2016]

[Harrysz]

Well expressed and reasoned INXS.

I think they'll take Naughton at 6 if Freo doesn't take him at 5. Otherwise Fogarty would be great, but what about Brayshaw or Cerra, if either is still there at 6?

[Pies2016]

Good summary as always.

Quite simply, trying to nail picks four through to ten is just to hard to predict with any certainty.
In another thread, I have long pushed the merits of Fogarty and Brayshaw.
They both interviewed really well and have great character, so there are no skeletons. Fogartys problem remains as to why did his form fall away so much in 2017. He did play some goodish footy in the SANFL but overall ( injuries aside ) he was quite underwhelming. If the Pies believe they have the solution to his form slump, I would take him in a heartbeat.

Paddy Dow is considered to have the best work ethic of all the kids in the draft. Ross Lyon loves this stuff and they need to get first hands on the ball with Mundy at the end. I just have a feeling that Dow will go second and the rest is anyone's guess. Still wouldn't totally shock me if they went with Oscar Allen at 5 either.

I like your later picks but I tend to think that both Claravino and Ryan will be gone by then. The Eagles traded out a future first rounder for two 2017 second round picks and the word is they will look to secure more local talent like Ryan, Kelly ( both mature age ) and possibly Starcevich.( Ryan supposedly targeted to replace Le Cras )
For later picks, keep an eye on James Worpol ( Falcons and very Scott Burns like ) as a third round pick. Tom DeKoning ( stingrays ) is another I hope they would at least look at. He would go to a club as a bit of a project player but maybe worth a punt on a late pick. Great below his knees at 200cm and a good kick on goal and good speed for a monster ( suffered lacerated kidney at end of the season but I'm assuming he is ok to go )

It's going to be compulsory viewing on Friday night.

[Bay Pie]

The Treloar picks ended up being Sam Weideman and Griffen Logue. With the 2nd rounder we gotr back we added another 2nd rounder and got James Aish. That additional pick was used on Willem Drew.

Therefore, the deal was Treloar and Aish for Weideman, Logue and Drew. You can't just cherry pick a player who was ranked about the 4th best forward in the draft. Unlikely we'd have taken Curnow when Weideman was available and consistently ranked higher than Curnow as was McKay, with carlton taking him before Curnow.

In any case, top 3 appear pretty locked in, LDU, Dow and Raynor.

That leaves Cerra, Brayshaw and Stephensen at pick 4. Roos are reportedly very keen on Stephensen, so possibly we pick whoever Freo don't out of Brayshaw and Cerra.

If Roos don't take Stephensen, they'll take Cerra or Brayshaw and Freo will take the other.

That leaves our decision as Stephensen or another. This is where I think Naughton may be chosen. If Brayshaw or Cerra are available at pick 6, especially Cerra, I think we take that player.

I wont be surprised if we take a certain very young key tall with one of our later picks. He'd be rated much higher next year should he have been born just a little later.

[inxs88]

[inxs88]

[MatthewBoydFanClub]

I don't see this as a debate. I think we should take our chances and see who drops at our feet at pick six. After all, who would you prefer out of Gault or an average to good midfielder? I'll take the average to good midfielder. You need to take the best if you want to get better and make adjustments to your list when the dust settles to balance your ratio of midfielders to talls.

[Adam Treloar 3 Votes]

FFS we don’t need more midfielders, it’s the one part of the ground that we are flush. On top of our established midfielders De Goey and Maynard are seeking more time in there this year. The no vacancy sign needs to go up.

We have a known shortage of KPP, particularly in defence. The smart move is to recruit replacements prior to Reid, Goldsack and Dunn either retiring, dropping off or having injuries. If we don’t take one this year it will hurt us for years to come.

If we get Tom Lynch next year that will likely cost us our 2018 and 2019 first round picks. 2020 is a long way away and Dunn, Reid and Goldsack will all be gone by then. We would also likely be premiership contenders by then so our first pick may be 15+. Unlikely to grab a gun KPP there.

[qldmagpie67]

Inxs88 as usual a articulate and well thought out post. The premise of the debate is one many of us have questioned.
I would like to add a different opinion.
The need of a KPP or midfielder should be secondary. For mine the question should be who's the best player (skill wise) left in the draft and draft that player.
My reasoning is if you have a team of skilled good players you will win more games based on pure talent alone. Yes you need to have a mix of height speed etc but talent should be the first stopping point when looking at any potential draftee.
I'm not fussed on who we get (I like idea of the hybrid type player they seem to be having a bigger impact on games now more than ever) I just want the player who is the best kick and has the best attitude towards learning and committing themselves to our goals

[MatthewBoydFanClub]

[Adam Treloar 3 Votes]

^ why the reference to Bontempelli? You know who the draftee’s are.

Have a logical think about it, GC will be able to match any offer that we put forward and there is no way they will let him go for just a compensation pick. The only way I see them trading him (without going to draft) is via fair compensation.

[Adam Treloar 3 Votes]

The suggestion that you overlook team needs where we have a known shortage of a particular position just to grab the best player is folly. You can’t play 18 midfielders and expect to win games of footy.

I understand and agree that where there isn’t a quality KPP around our draft position it would makes sense to take best available rather than trading well down to fill a need. However, that scenario doesn’t apply to this draft as the Pies will likely have a couple of quality KPP to select from with pick 6.