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Mighty Magpie’s 2018 Season Preview

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:35 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

MightyMagpie wrote:
8 Jan Training Report in post #1169: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/mazzarjos-training-reports-dec-20-report-post-1160.1153261/page-47


If anyone posts over there, please PM Neil and try to convince him to post his training reports over here (as well as there), just as he used to (before 2017). Surely copying & pasting is quick and easy for him.
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:02 pm
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http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-01-10/magpies-optimistic-on-forward-duos-fitness
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:36 am
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Training report links have been updated

A few notes of interest:

10 of our 45 players have no AFL games experience.

Another 4 (Kirby, Brown, Daicos and Wills) have less than 10.

13 players > 100 games.

9 players 50-99 games.

9 players 10-49 games.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/tp-collingwood-magpies?year=2018&sby=13

Without looking at individual players and positions and the merit of selection, we can put out a 22 of players with 50+ games experience. As soon as injuries strike we are into players with less than 50 games experience.

We will be relying pretty heavily on some less experienced players (certainly <50 games and possibly <10 games) to succeed in 2018. Those players in order of experience:

Moore - exposed AFL form
Thomas - exposed AFL form
Broomhead - exposed AFL form
Oxley - exposed AFL form
Smith - exposed AFL form
Phillips - exposed AFL form
Cox - exposed AFL form
Scharenberg - limited exposed AFL form from 2015 and 2017
Crocker - limited exposed AFL form from 2016 and 2017
Wills - limited exposed AFL form from 2016
C Brown - exposed VFL form (limited AFL)
Daicos - exposed VFL form (limited AFL)
Kirby - exposed VFL form (limited AFL), but some concerns re endurance/fitness base
T Brown
Lynch
Magden
McLarty - exposed VFL form
Murphy
Murray - training track reports suggest he may be AFL ready
Sier
Stephenson
Appleby - training track reports suggest he may be AFL ready
Mihocek - exposed VFL form

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:02 am
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Just a quick depth chart ranked on AFL games experience and using notional positions from footywire website with my adjustments noted in square brackets:

RUCKS

Grundy
[Cox (F)]
Lynch

MIDFIELDERS

Wells (F)
Pendlebury [D]
Sidebottom
Treloar
Greenwood (F)
Adams (D)
Crisp [D]
Hoskin-Elliott (F)
[Maynard (D)]
Aish
De Goey (F)
Thomas (F)
Phillips (F)
Wills (F)
C Brown (F)
T Brown
Sier
Stephenson

FORWARDS

Wells (M)
Varcoe
Mayne [D]
[Goldsack (F)]
Blair
[Reid (D)]
Greenwood (M)
Fasolo
Elliott
Hoskin-Elliott (M)
De Goey (M)
Moore [D]
Thomas (M)
Broomhead
Phillips (M)
Cox [R]
Crocker
Wills (M)
C Brown (M)
Daicos
Kirby
McLarty (D)
Murphy
Murray [D]
Sier (M)
[Stephenson]

DEFENDERS

[Pendlebury (M)]
Dunn
[Mayne (F)]
Goldsack [F]
Howe
Reid [F]
Adams (M)
[Crisp (M)]
Langdon
Maynard [M]
[Moore (F)]
Oxley
Smith
Scharenberg
McLarty
Appleby
Mihocek

I'm not sure where Category B Rookie Magden fits in.

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:15 pm
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per Stevo

Yeah, it's only January, but Mason Cox very impressive in a Collingwood intraclub hitout, AFL umps and all, this morning @7NewsMelbourne

If any Nicksters were there, I (and I am sure others) would appreciate a report.

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:10 pm
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Today’s training report now included: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/training-report-29-jan.1185737/
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:15 pm
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per Stevo again

Fairly wiling match simulation at Pies HQ, no sign of Darcy Moore ... trained indoors ... @7NewsMelbourne

Jamie Elliott managed light running at Pies HQ ... positive signs ... Daicos restricted to laps, had some work on groin @7NewsMelbourne

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:19 pm
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http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/collingwood-big-men-ben-reid-brodie-grundy-and-mason-cox-could-all-play-in-attack-in-2018/news-story/70c8f4ba6511809a589b9212f9404e38
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:06 pm
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I'll update this post in a bit more detail with my comments and some additional information as I work through the AFL Prospectus, but here's a list of our top-ranked players with relative rating in round brackets and previous years (2016 and 2015 from 2017 and 2016 AFL Prospectus, respectively) in square brackets.

First, a link to an explanation of the AFL Player Rating system: http://www.afl.com.au/stats/player-ratings/ratings-explained and http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/PlayerRatings/PlayerRatings_HOW.pdf

Secondly, Relative Rating is a measure of how a player performed relative to players of the same age and position based on AFL Player Rating points.

For those bagging Champion Data, I would just say this ... AFL is about 20 years behind baseball with analytics (think baseball in late 1990s/early 2000s) and, whilst not perfect by any means, it improves each year and improves the understanding of the game for those taking it onboard. The early modern history of sabermetrics (Bill James, Sandy Alderson et al) is quite interesting and Bill James was regarded by baseball organisation stalwarts as a bit of a crackpot in the early days.

ELITE (top 10%)

Howe (+44%) [Above Average +28%] [Above Average]
Scott Pendlebury (+36%) [Elite +49%] [Elite]
Jack Crisp (+26%) [Average +4%] [Average]

ABOVE AVERAGE (top 11%-35%)

Brodie Grundy(+49%) [Above Average +32%] [Average]
Adam Treloar (+23%) [Elite +42%] [Above Average]
Taylor Adams (+22%) [Above Average +24%] [Average]
Tom Langdon (+21%) [Above Average +32%] [Above Average]
Tom Phillips (+21%) [Unclassified -23%] [unclassified]
Will Hoskin-Elliott (+1%) [Poor] [Below Average]
Daniel Wells (-21%) [Above Average +8%] [Average]

AVERAGE (top 36%-65%)

Jordan DeGoey (+23%) [Average +5%] [Poor]
Brayden Maynard (+22%) [Below Average +9%] [unclassified]
Tyson Goldsack (+10%) [Above Average] [Above Average]
Steele Sidebottom (+2%) [Above Average +21%] [Above Average]
Lynden Dunn (-4%) [Average] [Above Average]
Jamie Elliott (-5%) [Above Average] [Above Average]
Ben Reid (-14%) [Average +0%] [unclassified]
Travis Varcoe (-15%) [Average -24%] [Average]
Alex Fasolo (-16%) [Above Average +33%] [Above Average]
Jarrad Blair (-19%) [Average -13%] [Above Average]

BELOW AVERAGE (top 66%-90%)

Darcy Moore (-1%) [Below Average +3%] [unclassified]
Mason Cox (-15%) [Rookie -15%] [Rookie]
Matthew Scharenberg (-19%) [Unclassified] [unclassified]
Tim Broomhead (-23%) [Average] [Average]
Levi Greenwood (-26%) [Average -17%] [Average]
Josh Smith (-30%) [Below Average -14%] [Rookie]
Chris Mayne [Average -16%] [Above Average]

POOR (bottom 10%)

James Aish (-45%) [Below Average +3%] [Poor]
Ben Crocker [-28%] [Poor] [unclassified]

The rest are rookie listed or unclassified.

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Last edited by MightyMagpie on Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:43 am; edited 4 times in total
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:21 pm
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The "Complex Puzzle" in the Collingwood assessment of the AFL Prospectus contains this gem:

"[another tall to support Darcy Moore], but the ground level numbers in the forward 50 suggest that this is a bigger problem than the air."

I do believe that several Nicksters have been crying out for a true crumber in the forward line for at least a couple of years.

Sometimes the statistics analysis comes around to support the bleeding obvious that is right there in front of your nose.

A very rough paraphrase of the CD solution seems to be focussing more on loose ball gets (particularly in the forward line) where we ranked a lowly #15 (we do well in hard ball gets, ranked #3) where the outcome is likely to be more beneficial than in the case of a hard ball get because of time and space.

For the last 5 years out top loose ball get players have been Beams (4.3), Sidebottom (4.2), Treloar (3.Cool and Pendlebury (3.7). We have already heard that Pendles will likely spend time forward and it won't surprise me if Sidebottom does too.

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Last edited by MightyMagpie on Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:40 pm
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Make or break year I suspect http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-02-07/proper-run-at-it-sees-pie-on-a-high
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:16 pm
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I think we will see grunt (Wills, Greenwood, Phillips, De Goey, Maynard) on the inside and class (Pendles, Sidebottom, Treloar, Wells and Varcoe) on the outside and forward.
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:16 pm
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http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-02-07/pie-saves-career-after-getting-fair-dinkum-bucks
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qldmagpie67 



Joined: 18 Dec 2008


PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:01 am
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MM many thanks for your hard work and dilligence in providing all these updates very much appreciated mate
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:11 am
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qldmagpie67 wrote:
MM many thanks for your hard work and dilligence in providing all these updates very much appreciated mate


No probs ... hanging out for the season!

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