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AFL site and flag odds

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BazBoy 



Joined: 11 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:39 am
Post subject: AFL site and flag oddsReply with quote

Every side listed as flag winners by Crown Bet

Be a long time since this I reckon
Collingwood $25
Hawthorn. $25

Scum are $67

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masoncox 

masoncox


Joined: 31 Aug 2015


PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:18 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

At sports bet we are at equal 10th with the Hawks as favs for the flag. Looks about right to me.
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thebaldfacts 



Joined: 02 Aug 2007


PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:42 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Wonder what odds the Tigers were at this time last year.

Longer odds is my guess.
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BazBoy 



Joined: 11 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:44 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

And the Doggies the year before
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masoncox 

masoncox


Joined: 31 Aug 2015


PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:46 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

thebaldfacts wrote:
Wonder what odds the Tigers were at this time last year.

Longer odds is my guess.

Odds always change. Bolters get up and favs get done over.
The point is the odds show what the collective mob think about our chances and every other teams chances for the flag next year.
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BazBoy 



Joined: 11 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:48 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Tigers were $67 at before round 1
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Adam Treloar 3 Votes 



Joined: 09 May 2017


PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:57 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

^ Masoncox

The hawks as favourites for the flag looks right to you 😳. Did you watch any of the 2017 season? Pretty hard to win a premiership if you won't make the finals I would have thought.

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masoncox 

masoncox


Joined: 31 Aug 2015


PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:12 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Adam Treloar 3 Votes wrote:
^ Masoncox

The hawks as favourites for the flag looks right to you 😳. Did you watch any of the 2017 season? Pretty hard to win a premiership if you won't make the finals I would have thought.

Poor old AT3V, did you check the stats of Hawks vs Pies re flags since the Hawks first came good in modern times? It is 13 to them and 2 to us. I am extremely jealous of their record. And so should you be if you are a true Collingwood supporter. Next time AT3V aim high and not low.
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ronrat 



Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: Thailand

PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:00 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

masoncox wrote:
Adam Treloar 3 Votes wrote:
^ Masoncox

The hawks as favourites for the flag looks right to you 😳. Did you watch any of the 2017 season? Pretty hard to win a premiership if you won't make the finals I would have thought.

Poor old AT3V, did you check the stats of Hawks vs Pies re flags since the Hawks first came good in modern times? It is 13 to them and 2 to us. I am extremely jealous of their record. And so should you be if you are a true Collingwood supporter. Next time AT3V aim high and not low.


What he should have said was they are on the same line of betting. They are not favourites. Neither should they be.25-1 is way unders. I would have them around the 50-1 mark, I reckon I could find better and I still wouldn't take it. 25-1 is a bit short for us as well but a lot closer to the mark than Whorethorn.

What they have done in the past is irrelevant. An ageing list and stuff all draft picks. Couldn't even unload Hartung for a pick and they have lost Hodge.. GWS has never won a flag but who is to say they can't win next year.

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:04 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Just for fun, I could model it as :

15% chance we come top 4, then 50% chance in each of three finals if we do;

PLUS

50% chance we make 5-8 and 50% chance in each of the first two finals if we do, with 25% chance of winning in a prelim and GF given that ladder position.

Do those numbers and you end up in the 33-1 to 40-1 range.

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Skids Cancer

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:02 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Where are you getting those odds?

Sportsbet has us @ 22/1
Ladbrokes @ 20/1
WATAB @ 20/1

I wouldn't have a buck on the Crows @ 4/1... massive unders and I'm laying them on Betfair.

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