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The Prince of Point Piper’s (Malcolm Turnbull's) woes

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:25 am
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Culprit wrote:
A few vote grabber is Migrants cannot get welfare for 3 years and only a fool wouldn't expect crime to escalate with those migrants as they are basically being forced into crime.


The data says that most migrants, desperate for a better life, are highly unlikely to end up unemployed. So it is extremely unlikely that they will therefore be “forced into crime” by a three-year qualifying period for welfare. If they do commit crime, of course, they should be deported, pronto. It’s a sensible policy designed to deter welfare tourism and protect the interests of taxpaying Australians.

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:19 am
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Thats just a restatement of the old notion that people on the dole must be lazy or just not trying hard enough. I’m sure there would be many migrants, including those with less than perfect English, who would struggle to get a job at first. And of course Culprit is absolutely right that there’s a link between lack of income and the hopelessness of long-time unemployment and crime. But hey, if some do go down that path, the government can always talk tough about deportation. Win-win. Rolling Eyes

It seems pretty clear to me that this is just another bit of pandering to the Herald Sun set. It’ll get voted down in the Senate, one expects, and one half-expects that the government already knows that. This way, they get to play to the xenophobic vote without having to deal with the social costs if their policy were actually implemented.

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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:54 am
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The data? Really, I use data everyday and as always GIGO, Garbage in Garbage out. If there is no work and you have a family to feed what are you going to do if you don't have a job? The same data has unemployment under 6% and that's bullshit. 30 years ago anyone could get a job especially in manufacturing and in saying that those jobs are long gone.
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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:28 am
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David wrote:
Thats just a restatement of the old notion that people on the dole must be lazy or just not trying hard enough. I’m sure there would be many migrants, including those with less than perfect English, who would struggle to get a job at first. And of course Culprit is absolutely right that there’s a link between lack of income and the hopelessness of long-time unemployment and crime. But hey, if some do go down that path, the government can always talk tough about deportation. Win-win. Rolling Eyes

It seems pretty clear to me that this is just another bit of pandering to the Herald Sun set. It’ll get voted down in the Senate, one expects, and one half-expects that the government already knows that. This way, they get to play to the xenophobic vote without having to deal with the social costs if their policy were actually implemented.


Ah, yes, it’s just “xenophobia”. How one side of politics loves these terms from pathological psychology ! Perhaps the right of politics needs to develop its own equivalent pseudo-psychopathological silliness. What would best denote an irrational fear of reciprocity, hard work, lawful behaviour, conscientiousness and self-discipline? Adultophobia ? “Fear of acting like a responsible adult” ?

There is nothing “xenophobic”about the argument that those who draw welfare should be expected to accumulate rights through contribution. Benefit-based migratory choices are very evident in Europe, where differing systems in adjacent countries cause migrants to gather at the border of countries which offer non-contributory entitlements. It’s quite rational behaviour, and preventing it is just good policy, consistent with most people’s sense of justice. Those who have divorced welfare from contribution, and who consider crime a natural phenomenon rather than an individual choice, have contributed greatly to the progressive public scepticism towards sensible and desirable social insurance, and towards migration itself.

I should add that the data shows that migrants typically find jobs very quickly and have negligible rates of unemployment. Refugees, however, have far higher rates. That may be a language issue, but after some transitional support -which is provided, I understand, in the form of public financial support, accommodation plus language classes - I think it is reasonable to expect refugees of working age to find a job. I know it may not be easy, but other migrants did it right through history, and I think we owe refugees the credit of assuming that they can do so, too.

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:39 am
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Of course it's xenophobia. I can understand (likely greatly inflated) concerns about 'welfare tourism' in essentially borderless zones, like the EU, but I doubt it's a huge issue in this gated island community. Basically, it's a solution without a problem (well, apart from poor polling figures).
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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:17 am
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David wrote:
Of course it's xenophobia. I can understand (likely greatly inflated) concerns about 'welfare tourism' in essentially borderless zones, like the EU, but I doubt it's a huge issue in this gated island community. Basically, it's a solution without a problem (well, apart from poor polling figures).


Repeating that it is xenophobia does not make it so. You think that a country which has taken in literally millions of foreigners on the last thirty years has xenophobia. What would constitute contrary evidence for you ?

Refugees (or migrants, since it has become impossible to distinguish between the two since the global illegal migration industry started exploiting the asylum loophole) make choices about where they come, whether to Australia or France or Germany or Sweden. The European experience shows that people are well-informed about this, and of course the people smugglers make it their business to pass it along. If Australia were that far off the radar of choice as you suggest, these folks would not be arriving as they do, since we are nowhere near the world’s genuine refugee centrifuges.

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:14 am
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Culprit wrote:
The data? Really, I use data everyday and as always GIGO, Garbage in Garbage out. If there is no work and you have a family to feed what are you going to do if you don't have a job? The same data has unemployment under 6% and that's bullshit. 30 years ago anyone could get a job especially in manufacturing and in saying that those jobs are long gone.


Maybe, but if you won’t accept official statistics as evidence, what do you propose instead ? ALP press releases ? 30 years ago the unemployment rate was ca 8%, entering a brief valley of recovery between peaks of 10% in 1982 and 12% in 1993. It was not “easy for anyone to get a job in manufacturing” then either, but it is true that many of the jobs we did have in mfg then, have gone now, and been replaced by service industry jobs.

This has occurred across the western world, as production has moved to lower cost locations in Asia. Germany has been a significant exception, because its currency is kept artificially low by a political airlock which I think likely to explode eventually. Most Western countries have kept growing via debt creation (private and public), current account deficits, money-printing (QE) and migration (which is not real growth at all, in per capita terms). Presumably this will all unwind in a very disorderly way at some point. Australia has some insulation as long as China keeps getting orders from the debt-ridden EU and US. For as long as that happens, Australians can afford the welfare largesse advocated by those who wear their conscience like a placard.

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Last edited by Mugwump on Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:45 am; edited 1 time in total
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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:34 am
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Mugwump wrote:
Repeating that it is xenophobia does not make it so. You think that a country which has taken in literally millions of foreigners on the last thirty years has xenophobia. What would constitute contrary evidence for you ?


Some sign that it was no longer central to the policy design and messaging of the major parties or the narratives of mainstream news media outlets, as it has quite explicitly been since around the turn of the 21st century.

Every country contains xenophobic sentiments, mind you; but not all have made them quite as integral to the political program as Australia – particularly, the governing coalition, but also, frequently, the Labor Party – has.

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:55 am
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sorry, but a country where 28% of the population was born overseas, with one of the highest net migration rates in the world does not - practically by definition- have xenophobia on a serious political scale.

If you think about it, you’ll find better explanations which consider and take account of known facts (eg people don’t mind migration, but they do not like uncontrolled migration, or governments that do not know how to protect their borders). But to weigh this, you might have to give up the assumption that opposing views of the world are based on a pathological “phobia”.

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Wokko Pisces

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:10 pm
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If we're xenophobic then wtf is Japan? Laughing
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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:57 pm
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^ Also xenophobic.

High immigration rates don’t tell the whole story. Indeed, some would say that this was precisely Howard’s tactic: improve the economy by taking in huge numbers of migrants, but alleviate the anxiety (i.e. political cost) of this by playing to xenophobic sentiments – say, by reframing fears around immigration as fears about “boat people”. And, by, say, pouring millions into ‘border protection’ and dropping bills from time to time about useless symbolic things like delaying citizenships, ‘toughening up’ the citizenship test, deporting foreign-born dual citizens, holding back welfare payments and so on.

Seriously, you can’t understand the first thing about the history of 21st century Australian politics if you can’t recognise this phenomenon.

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Wokko Pisces

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:22 pm
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I recognize that we'd be better off like Japan and all we get is mass immigration hidden behind stopping fake refugees.

'Xenophobia' is just a bullshit term to shame people who don't want endless population growth and destruction of culture through mass immigration. Immigration should be slow, controlled and any changes allowed time to filter through and be assessed. Melbourne's current black crime wave is testament to that; but the people calling for mass immigration from the 3rd world don't live in Dandenong, Footscray or Deer Park do they?
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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:27 pm
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What word would you use to describe (the deeply human, but also potentially violent and discriminatory) fear or mistrust of the ‘other’?

I’ve been careful to use the word ‘xenophobia’ rather than ‘racism’ for years to describe this phenomenon, as I think it more accurately describes what’s going on behind a lot of anti-immigrant sentiment (and because ‘racism’ is overused to the point of losing all meaning). I understand that it’s a word with negative connotations and that people don’t like their views being described as such. But, again, what word would you use?

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Wokko Pisces

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 3:06 pm
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It's using a pejorative to describe what is simply a political stance. Nativism I guess would be the correct term. Otherwise I guess I need to start calling so called progressives "Anglophobics" or something equally ridiculous.
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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:15 pm
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Cabinet reshuffle, means less Victorian influence. It's all about Sydney and NSW now.
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