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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| I cannot predict the future. |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| David wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | | Turnbull will contest the next election, and win. |
That seems pretty optimistic! What do you think will be the turning point for him? |
He's got gay marriage across the line, the economy is doing well, he's given the unions no ammo, he's always been ahead of Shorten as preferred PM, so despite all the angst from both the far right and the left, he's actually doing OK and there's nothing pivotal to change the roughly 10% of swinging voters who decide elections to dump him.
I can see the coalition winning with a small majority.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Dave The Man 
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| stui magpie wrote: | ^
We do. But not enough for Shorten to get voted in. |
That is the only thing Holding Back that Shorten is not Liked.
I like that Lady Wong to Become Labor Leader as I reckon she would win Easilt
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I am Da Man |
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ronrat
Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: Thailand
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Wong would need to move out of the Senate for that to happen. SA has just lost a seat in Reps. Not all that sure that traditional labor strongholds in Adelaide will comfortable with a gay Asian woman. I think deputy PM and leader in the senate will be as far as she goes.Could well be factional issues in gaining a seat in the lower house. A smart move might be look at moving to say Canberra and grabbing that seat.
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Annoying opposition supporters since 1967. |
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Culprit 
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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| stui magpie wrote: | | he's given the unions no ammo |
Low wage growth, cost of living is up = bang bang. Stui, you and I have seen a few elections and I always say that people vote with their wallets and the next election will be exactly the same.
Last edited by Culprit on Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:50 am; edited 1 time in total |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| ronrat wrote: | | Wong would need to move out of the Senate for that to happen. SA has just lost a seat in Reps. Not all that sure that traditional labor strongholds in Adelaide will comfortable with a gay Asian woman. I think deputy PM and leader in the senate will be as far as she goes.Could well be factional issues in gaining a seat in the lower house. A smart move might be look at moving to say Canberra and grabbing that seat. |
I suspect she’d be a popular candidate wherever she stands, particularly in inner Adelaide electorates (like Kingston and Port Adelaide, which are fairly safe Labor seats), and I have a feeling that this will happen sooner or later – probably not until Bill has had his run, though.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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Yes, I do not like Penny Wong’s politics, but she seems a person of reasonable character and her public persona seems fairly authentic and rational. Does she have the ambition for it ? I expect she’d be very electable, and less off-putting than the haranguing, opportunist shop-steward who currently leads the ALP. I doubt her sexuality would be an issue given the gay marriage vote.
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Two more flags before I die! |
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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I think Anthony Albanese is the most realistic challenger to Shorten's leadership at this stage.
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| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Culprit wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | | he's given the unions no ammo |
Low wage growth, cost of living is up = bang bang. Stui, you and I have seen a few elections and I always say that people vote with their wallets and the next election will be exactly the same. |
Can't argue with that, it remains to be seen who they think will be best for their wallets and what the tactics will be for each party. Can't see Shorten's medi-scare working twice.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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By the way, Bennelong turned out to be a bit of an anticlimax, didn’t it? Turnbull would be pretty relaxed after that – I suppose it remains to be seen whether he will face any more Section 44 by-elections, but two easy wins out of two isn’t a bad result.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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Bennelong Results (NOT final)
Liberal = 36,868 (45.1%)
Labor = 29,234 (35.8%)
Greens = 5,485 (6.7%)
Aus Conservatives = 3,526 (4.3%)
Christian Democrats = 2,540 (3.1%)
Science = 1,005 (1.2%)
Sustainable Australia = 944 (1.2%)
Affordable Housing = 710 (0.9%)
Liberty Alliance = 695 (0.9%)
Progressives = 420 (0.5%)
People's Party = 176 (0.2%)
Non-Custodial Parents = 127 (0.2%)
Two-Party Preferred
- Liberal = 44,925 (55.0%)
- Labor = 36,808 (45.0%)
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| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Interesting to see that Bernardi’s mob managed fourth place – admittedly, they didn’t have much competition for it, but it shows that their name, if nothing else, is resonating.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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| David wrote: | | Interesting to see that Bernardi’s mob managed fourth place – admittedly, they didn’t have much competition for it, but it shows that their name, if nothing else, is resonating. |
^ Yes, that’s not a bad return for Bernardi and Co. I do not like their American-style libertarian economic policies, which are more radical than conservative, and I do not like their environmental indifference ; but it is good to see a party trying to fill the space they do on social and cultural issues.
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Two more flags before I die! |
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ronrat
Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: Thailand
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| David wrote: | | ronrat wrote: | | Wong would need to move out of the Senate for that to happen. SA has just lost a seat in Reps. Not all that sure that traditional labor strongholds in Adelaide will comfortable with a gay Asian woman. I think deputy PM and leader in the senate will be as far as she goes.Could well be factional issues in gaining a seat in the lower house. A smart move might be look at moving to say Canberra and grabbing that seat. |
I suspect she’d be a popular candidate wherever she stands, particularly in inner Adelaide electorates (like Kingston and Port Adelaide, which are fairly safe Labor seats), and I have a feeling that this will happen sooner or later – probably not until Bill has had his run, though. |
Port Adelaide probably not. Union stronghold. As I intimated factional stooges at play. The ALP would win there if they stood Tukky my poodle but it is hard seeing her getting the nod for preselection.A winnable marginal seat (if they exist) would be a brave but possibly smart move overall if it meant an ALP gain. But like most things in Adelaide it is hard to take any notice of what is going on. A lot depedns on her ambition as well. Deputy PM has a lot of advantages. You don't cop all the heat and you get to pick your own portfolio. Personally I think she would be excellent if she picked Education or Family services as Deputy pm and Minister.
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Annoying opposition supporters since 1967. |
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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With further cut backs as debt increases we will be better off in 5 years under the latest figures. You cut and cut and don't spend, the electorate will punish you. A few vote grabber is Migrants cannot get welfare for 3 years and only a fool wouldn't expect crime to escalate with those migrants as they are basically being forced into crime.
Another Poll down but the LNP are celebrating as they just retained 2 safe seats. Woo Hoo. |
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