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US Midterm Elections 2018

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:51 pm
Post subject: US Midterm Elections 2018Reply with quote

The much anticipated midterm elections in the US are upon us, as Americans head out to vote tomorrow (6/11/2018). The results will start flooding in around midday local time on Wednesday.

The midterm elections are the elections of the Legislative branch of government consisting of the House of Representatives and the Senate. To simplify it, I'll separate the two houses and what the voting structure entails in this election cycle.

House of Representatives:

The House of Representatives consists of 435 seats, with 218 seats required to form a majority.

In this election cycle, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs. Ordinarily, the House of Representatives elections are held every two years in the US and all seats are up for election.

As it stands, the Republicans currently have 235 seats in their disposal, while the Democrats have 193 seats. Therefore, this means the Democrats require flipping 25 seats currently held by the Republicans in order to win back control of the House.

Most mainstream polls are predicting that the Democrats will reclaim the House, but it's a matter of how big the margin will be. However, there's also a possibility that the Democrats will fail to win back the House and it will remain a Republican majority.

Traditionally, the party that is in power in the executive branch of government (currently the Republicans with Donald Trump as President) often loses control of the House. This happened to the Democrats in 2008 after Obama won the Presidential election, but they lost the House to the Republicans in 2010.

Key Seats:
- California 10
- California 25
- California 39
- California 48
- Florida 15
- Florida 26
- Florida 27
- Illinois 6
- Illinois 14
- Iowa 3
- Kansas 2
- Kansas 3
- Kentucky 6
- Maine 2
- Michigan 8
- Michigan 11
- Minnesota 1
- Minnesota 2
- Minnesota 3
- Minnesota 8
- New Jersey 2
- New Jersey 3
- New Jersey 7
- New Jersey 11
- New Mexico 2
- New York 19
- New York 22
- North Carolina 9
- North Carolina 13
- Ohio 12
- Pennsylvania 1
- Pennsylvania 5
- Pennsylvania 6
- Pennsylvania 7
- Pennsylvania 14
- Texas 7
- Texas 23
- Texas 32
- Utah 4
- Virginia 2
- Virginia 5
- Virginia 7
- Virginia 10
- Washington 8
- West Virginia 3

Apart from Minnesota 1, Minnesota 8 and Pennsylvania 14, all other seats are currently held by the Republicans.

Senate:

The Senate has 100 seats, which consists of 2 seats for each state so every state has equal representation regardless of its population numbers. However, only 33 seats (1/3) of seats are up for grabs in each Senate election which is ordinarily held every two years.

As it stands, the Republicans hold 51 seats, the Democrats hold 47 seats with two independents (which includes Bernie Sanders) making up the 100 seats in the Senate. The independents caucus with the Senate Democrats which takes their power up to 49 seats.

In this election cycle, the Democrats are required to defend 24 Senate seats (including the two Independents), while the Republicans only need to defend 9 seats.

Most pundits have predicted that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate and may in fact increase their margin over the Democrats.

Key Seats:
- Arizona (currently held by Republicans)
- Florida (currently held by Democrats)
- Indiana (currently held by Democrats)
- Missouri (currently held by Democrats)
- Montana (currently held by Democrats)
- Nevada (currently held by Republicans)
- New Jersey (currently held by Democrats)
- North Dakota (currently held by Democrats)
- Tennessee (currently held by Republicans)
- Texas (currently held by Republicans)

I'm predicting Arizona will flip to the Democrats, but the Republicans will gain Missouri and North Dakota taking it a 52-48 lead in the Senate.

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swoop42 Virgo

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Joined: 02 Aug 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:59 pm
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The Democrats aren't contesting on an even playing field.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-03/gerrymandering-us-midterm-election-republican-ace/10461588

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Pripyat, in spirit

PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:15 am
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Great summary, thanks Jezza. Will be very interesting to see what transpires – a great deal (in terms of US and even world politics) rests on what happens tomorrow. This will basically decide whether Trump is able to carry out his agenda from this point onwards.
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MJ23 



Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Location: Sydney

PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:03 am
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Great summary Jezza, I think you are close to spot on.

gerrymandering might help the republicans but stuffing the ballot and votes of the dead usually help the dems Wink

The only thing to add is while the party in power does lose the house, this can give them a bump and turn out their base for the presidential. Much like it did for Obama.

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Pies4shaw 



Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:35 pm
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It's far enough through the counting to conclude that the Republicans have retained control of the Senate (and might have gained another 3 seats, as things presently stand), while the Democrats look likely to acquire an additional 30 to 35 seats in the House (they need 23 for a majority). The only way the Republicans look like they can hold control of the House is if something bizarre happens in Washington and California, which is reasonably unlikely.
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Pies4shaw 



Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:39 pm
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Just for fun:

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/first-muslim-women-congress/index.html
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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:20 pm
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Far from a 'Blue Wave' Cool

NBC's Savannah Gutherie - "Maybe it's a Red Wave on the senate side at least"
NBC's Chuck Todd - "There is no blue wave"

CNN's Van Jones - "This is heartbreaking, though, this is heartbreaking... it's not a blue wave"
CNN's contributor Peter Beinart - "Tonight is feeling horrifyingly familiar"
CNN's Jake Tapper - "When you look at what's going on here tonight, this is not a blue wave"

Jake again- " A lot of the Republicans who were critics of Trump... they are being defeated"

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Pripyat, in spirit

PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:28 pm
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^ What’s important is that Trump’s domestic policy agenda is effectively stalled for the next two years. Plus, for those who care, impeachment proceedings can get underway now.
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MJ23 



Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Location: Sydney

PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:34 pm
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Sort of as expected from since the Kavanaugh debacle. Not too long ago Dems were expected to take the house and the Senate.

Dems should be really upset at only taking the house although its is a small victory and they will get up and about over it.

Still, federal judges - maybe a supreme court nomination and ability to block legislation will suit the Republicans and they may count themselves lucky they didn't go the way of Obama, Clinton etc.

In the end, Trump focused his campaigning in the senate race and it looks to have paid off for him.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:35 pm
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I think both parties broke even relative to expectations. I would have been surprised if the Democrats didn't reclaim the House.

Republicans have gained Senate seats with wins in Indiana, North Dakota and Florida.

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Pies4shaw 



Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:44 pm
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"The education divide persists. Democrats appear to be doing well in well-educated suburbs, which extends a trend we’ve seen of Democrats gaining ground with college-educated voters. In 2017, Pew Research Center reported that people with a bachelor’s degree or higher favored Democrats by 22 points. As recently as 2010 that group was split evenly between the two parties and in 1992, it favored Republicans by 4 points. On the flip side, Republicans have gained plenty of ground with non-college educated whites in recent years."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=538twitter
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:56 pm
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Looks like the Republicans will gain Missouri in the Senate as I predicted.
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Pies4shaw 



Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:57 pm
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https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/kentucky-clerk-who-refused-to-sign-marriage-licenses-for-gay-couples-loses-to-democrat-20181107-p50ejg.html
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MJ23 



Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Location: Sydney

PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:03 pm
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Pies4shaw wrote:
"The education divide persists. Democrats appear to be doing well in well-educated suburbs, which extends a trend we’ve seen of Democrats gaining ground with college-educated voters. In 2017, Pew Research Center reported that people with a bachelor’s degree or higher favored Democrats by 22 points. As recently as 2010 that group was split evenly between the two parties and in 1992, it favored Republicans by 4 points. On the flip side, Republicans have gained plenty of ground with non-college educated whites in recent years."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=538twitter


Yeah thats because the american college system has been taken over by left wing nutcases Laughing Wink

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:04 pm
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Georgia and Florida Governor races are won by Republicans.
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