We can still make the 8

[Piesnchess]

One can live in hope.

[HAL]

Oh you can, can you?

[Tannin]

Dose of reality here please. We are practically a certainty to make the 8.

[Tannin]

But not in 2017.

[David]

We're only a mathematical chance, and with three tough games to play, you'd have to be crazily optimistic to think we can still make it. But with Port struggling, Geelong our bunnies and Melbourne unpredictable, we have at least an outside chance in all three games. So, if we somehow win all three, can we still play finals?

I've been doing the maths on this so you don't have to, and the answer is yes – but we need a number of results to go our way. Here are the teams above us that are still within striking distance:

5. Port 44
6. Sydney 44
7. Bulldogs 44
8. Essendon 40
9. West Coast 40
10. Melbourne 40
11. St. Kilda 40

To play finals, we can only afford for three of those seven teams to finish above us. For that to happen, each of Port, Sydney and the Bulldogs only need to win one game out of their next three, while each of Essendon, West Coast, Melbourne and St Kilda need to win two.

Here are the list of those teams' games for the next three rounds (not counting our match-ups with Port and Melbourne). Where results seem pretty likely, I've bolded the presumed winners:

Round 21:
Bulldogs vs GWS
Sydney vs Fremantle
Essendon vs Adelaide
West Coast vs Carlton
Melbourne vs St Kilda

Round 22:
Adelaide vs Sydney
Bulldogs vs Port
GWS vs West Coast
Gold Coast vs Essendon
Melbourne vs Brisbane
St Kilda vs North

Round 23:
Hawthorn vs Bulldogs
Sydney vs Carlton
Port vs Gold Coast
Essendon vs Fremantle
Richmond vs St Kilda
West Coast vs Adelaide

If those bolded teams win as expected, we'll already have three teams finishing above us: Port, Sydney and whoever wins out of Melbourne and St Kilda. That means that, if we win all our games, we'll be relying on the following results to go our way, barring major upsets:

Port to beat the Bulldogs
Hawthorn to beat the Bulldogs
Fremantle to beat Essendon
Adelaide to beat West Coast

Edit: sorry, didn't notice the existing thread on this!

[RudeBoy]

Apart from blowing wins against the Crows and Giants, it's a shame the Blues couldn't have beaten the Bummers on the weekend. That would have swung things back in our favour considerably. In any case, we will probably lose at least one of our remaining 3 games anyway. Nevertheless, it shows to me just how close we are to being a finals team, and in fact a top 4 team. Think back to our opening few games against the Dogs and Tigers, where our shocking inaccuracy in front of goal cost us big time. Had we won those games, and beaten GWS and Crows, we'd be in the top 4 right now. Still, if your Aunty......

[Skids]

[David]

I agree, mostly! The only bad thing about the draw is that we could have caught the Bulldogs on percentage if we'd won. Now we need them to lose all three games.

[David]

Well, the dream could be over this afternoon if we lose to Port as expected – but so far results are falling into place as expected (Bulldogs and Essendon losing). Would have been nice for the Blues to knock off West Coast, but they're probably going to get slaughtered in the next two weeks anyway. Marginally better for us for St Kilda to get up today, though it doesn't matter overly – the best result by far would be a draw!

[Skids]

Just gota win.

Unwanted by the punters, now out to as much as $3.60.
Same market move away from us when we beat the cats earlier on this year.

[Luigitheunbelievable]

Hi Folks.
I reckon some of you blokes have too much time on your hands.
But geez, I hope you are right! C"mon boys!!
Regards, all.

[selkevh]

[i hate carlton]

I have 22 rabbits feet on the table and will be rubbing them all in sequence.

[princem007]

Oh no we can't . Another wasted year.

[The Boy Who Cried Wolf]

Can the mods please close this thread, it's done.