 |
|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
|
| Post subject: |  |
|
I might be slow on the uptake here. Masoncox, are you any relation to Mooretreloar?
_________________
“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
|
|
|
 |
neil 
Joined: 08 Sep 2005
Location: Queensland
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| watt price tully wrote: | | I might be slow on the uptake here. Masoncox, are you any relation to Mooretreloar? |
Always though it was tompsoc alias
_________________
Carlscum 120 years being cheating scum |
|
|
|
|
themonk
Joined: 02 Mar 2004
|
| Post subject: | |
|
If Sam Murray is worth releasing our 2nd round pick for next year's draft I'm concerned what we'll offer for Lynch?
|
|
|
|
|
Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| masoncox wrote: | | Pies2016 wrote: | | masoncox wrote: | | Pies2016 wrote: | | masoncox wrote: | | Adam Treloar 3 Votes wrote: | Lol, perhaps someone needs to draw Mason Cox a diagram in crayon highlighting the considerable "change" we received from the second round draft pick along with a very promising player. Perhaps the penny will finally drop then.
PS: The only reason Sam Murray was a rookie is the swans backline he was trying to break into was made of all Australians Dane Rampe and Nick Smith along with young gun Callum Mills. |
So AT3V when was the last time a club gave up a second round pick for an unknown rookie? Get your crayon out and work that out? Bet you wont respond in a direct fashion.
As for the change we got ...well it might be used for the tipping jar. Seriously, post in a graceful way or dont post at all. |
Here's a serious question for you, how many AFL games would Murray need to play in 2018 before you would be prepared to say you were wrong ?
Sounds like not many going by your thoughts on him. |
You dont get it do you?
It is about the price paid for an untried rookie.
He may end up a great player or he maybe a dud. Unknown at this stage. The issue is the price. A untried rookie with zero afl games and a bad kick and one sided at that should never go for a second round pick. It is simple not complicated. |
So let me ask an equally uncomplicated question. If said rookie was to go on and play 100 games for said club for a second rounder ( I'm even going to exclude the one we got back ) would you say a 100 game + player proved to be good value for a second rounder ?? |
How about we got the 100 + game rookie for a fourth round pick instead of 2nd round pick ...do you think that is a better deal? And do you reckon on averages a second round pick would play more AFL games than a rookie? |
You might be onto something about rookie selections
Mathew Boyd - 292 games. 3 X AA
Aaron Sandilands 254 games 4 X AA
Nick Maxwell 208 games 1X AA. I could go on.
All of a sudden, this Murray kid looks like a real steal.
|
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| There were about 7 former rookies in our last premiership team, including a number of All-Australians. Also, a pick 58 and a pick 63. It doesn't matter where they start - it matters where they end up.
|
|
|
|
|
masoncox
masoncox
Joined: 31 Aug 2015
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| Yep, it must be true that a rookie pick is a better pick than second round pick. Makes you wonder why we didn't give up our pick 6 for 3 or so rookie picks. Bet the other club would have killed themselves for that deal. What a bargain for us.
|
|
|
|
|
AN_Inkling
Joined: 06 Oct 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
I think Hine's explanation makes a lot of sense. At first I was surprised that we'd give up a 2018 2nd rounder for a 3rd rounder.
But, if as Hine says, we are almost certain not to be taking a player with that 2018 2nd rounder, then it's all about points. Both for us and the Swans, as they also have a F/S prospect.
On points, we gave up around pick 45 for Murray. Pretty reasonable I would have thought.
_________________
Well done boys! |
|
|
|
|
donuts
Joined: 04 Oct 2002
Location: Gold Coast (originally Melbourne)
|
| Post subject: | |
|
The below scenarios are based purely on the draft pick allocated to ladder positions after the completion of finals. They do not account for future trading of picks, free agency draft pick compensation etc. Here are a few scenarios that could be played out with regard to the Murray Trade.
Worst Case Scenario 2018
Sydney 1st : 3rd Round Selection (pick 54) = 220 Points
Collingwood 18th : 2nd Round Selection (pick 19) = 948 points
Collingwood also receives pick 70 in 2017 draft = 39 points
Points Difference = 728 Points between 2nd and 3rd round pick swap, less 39 points for current pick 70 = 689 points. This roughly equates to pick 28 for Sam Murray. Not ideal.
Best Case Scenario 2018
Sydney 18th : 3rd Round Selection (pick 37) = 483 Points
Collingwood 1st : 2nd Round Selection (pick 36) = 502 points
Collingwood also receives pick 70 in 2017 draft = 39 points
Points Difference = 19 Points between 2nd and 3rd round pick swap, less 39 points for current pick 70 = -20. This equates to no pick at all for Sam Murray. Perfect!
More realistic Scenario based on Ladder positions at the end of 2017 Finals Campaign
*this is based on no trading of future picks (as Collingwood have no 2nd round pick this year), compensation picks given to clubs (Rocky, Motlop etc) therefore pushing draft picks back
Sydney 5th: 3rd Round Selection = (pick 32) = 584
Collingwood 13th 2nd Round Selection (pick 24) = 785
Collingwood also receives pick 70 in 2017 draft = 39 points
Points Difference = 201 Points between 2nd and 3rd round pick swap, less 39 points for current pick 70 = 162.
This roughly equates to pick 59 (158 points). Seems realistic considering we receive a player.
Now, Im no mathematician, and if I have got the numbers and calculations above wrong, then feel free to constructively fix it, Im just trying to give a little perspective on the whole issue.
The thing is, this trade cannot be truly judged until a few things occur.
Firstly, where we finish next year. Worst vs Best Case scenario is a marked difference (pick 28 (IN POINTS ONLY) vs. nothing).
Secondly, and more importantly, if Sam Murray adds to our list/game play, plays 22 games (and hopefully finals) etc, then and only then, can we see the true value of what we gave up to bring him in.
Attached is the Points Values for each draft pick
| Description: |
|
Download |
| Filename: |
Points-draft-value.pdf |
| Filesize: |
166.26 KB |
| Downloaded: |
1005 Time(s) |
| Description: |
|
Download |
| Filename: |
Points-draft-value.pdf |
| Filesize: |
166.26 KB |
| Downloaded: |
512 Time(s) |
|
|
|
|
|
RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| themonk wrote: | If Sam Murray is worth releasing our 2nd round pick for next year's draft I'm concerned what we'll offer for Lynch?
|
Lynch will be a free agent, so we won't have to offer anything. What we will need however, is space in our salary cap to pay him a big salary.
|
|
|
|
|
piedys 
Heeeeeeere's Dyso!!!
Joined: 04 Sep 2003
Location: Resident Forum Psychopath since 2003
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| Big T wrote: | | piedys wrote: | | Member 7167 wrote: | | Here is the draft pick order: |
Having a look at that table; How the f&ck did Richmond manage to snaffle two early picks in the 2nd round, thus 3 picks inside first 25 selections?
I'm sure they gave the world to scam Prestia, Nankervis and Caddy during the 2016 trade period, only parting with Delidio for chump change?
Can anybody remind me how they have scammed these picks please? URL? |
Typical afl interjection to ensure another popular premier. Gave them mid second compensation for uber dud Vickery and then the afl giants coughed up a first rounder for Dildo. |
Thanks T; i'd forgotten about ol' Vickery Dickery Dock!
Reckon him and Dildoledo would have been just spewin' blood by the bucket load, at the end of the 2017 Grand Final.
Leaving for greener pastures is always a good idea at the time isn't it?!
_________________
M I L L A N E 4 2 forever |
|
|
|
|
E
Joined: 05 May 2010
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| piedys wrote: | | Big T wrote: | | piedys wrote: | | Member 7167 wrote: | | Here is the draft pick order: |
Having a look at that table; How the f&ck did Richmond manage to snaffle two early picks in the 2nd round, thus 3 picks inside first 25 selections?
I'm sure they gave the world to scam Prestia, Nankervis and Caddy during the 2016 trade period, only parting with Delidio for chump change?
Can anybody remind me how they have scammed these picks please? URL? |
Typical afl interjection to ensure another popular premier. Gave them mid second compensation for uber dud Vickery and then the afl giants coughed up a first rounder for Dildo. |
Thanks T; i'd forgotten about ol' Vickery Dickery Dock!
Reckon him and Dildoledo would have been just spewin' blood by the bucket load, at the end of the 2017 Grand Final.
Leaving for greener pastures is always a good idea at the time isn't it?! |
It shows sometimes that addition by subtraction works. It also shows that teams can afford to lose their best players and thrive (in the right circumstances).
_________________
Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
|
|
|
|
Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| RudeBoy wrote: | | themonk wrote: | If Sam Murray is worth releasing our 2nd round pick for next year's draft I'm concerned what we'll offer for Lynch?
|
Lynch will be a free agent, so we won't have to offer anything. What we will need however, is space in our salary cap to pay him a big salary. |
He is Restricted so Suns can Match and Force a Trade IF we want Lynch
_________________
I am Da Man |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
|
|
|
|
K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| Dave The Man wrote: | | RudeBoy wrote: | | themonk wrote: | If Sam Murray is worth releasing our 2nd round pick for next year's draft I'm concerned what we'll offer for Lynch?
|
Lynch will be a free agent, so we won't have to offer anything. What we will need however, is space in our salary cap to pay him a big salary. |
He is Restricted so Suns can Match and Force a Trade IF we want Lynch |
And without Ablett, they're in a pretty good position to splash cash.
The numbers being waved about include $1.3 million a year over nine years.
And this despite Lynch having a not-so-great 2017.
|
|
|
|
|
Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| donuts wrote: | The below scenarios are based purely on the draft pick allocated to ladder positions after the completion of finals. They do not account for future trading of picks, free agency draft pick compensation etc. Here are a few scenarios that could be played out with regard to the Murray Trade.
Worst Case Scenario 2018
Sydney 1st : 3rd Round Selection (pick 54) = 220 Points
Collingwood 18th : 2nd Round Selection (pick 19) = 948 points
Collingwood also receives pick 70 in 2017 draft = 39 points
Points Difference = 728 Points between 2nd and 3rd round pick swap, less 39 points for current pick 70 = 689 points. This roughly equates to pick 28 for Sam Murray. Not ideal.
Best Case Scenario 2018
Sydney 18th : 3rd Round Selection (pick 37) = 483 Points
Collingwood 1st : 2nd Round Selection (pick 36) = 502 points
Collingwood also receives pick 70 in 2017 draft = 39 points
Points Difference = 19 Points between 2nd and 3rd round pick swap, less 39 points for current pick 70 = -20. This equates to no pick at all for Sam Murray. Perfect!
More realistic Scenario based on Ladder positions at the end of 2017 Finals Campaign
*this is based on no trading of future picks (as Collingwood have no 2nd round pick this year), compensation picks given to clubs (Rocky, Motlop etc) therefore pushing draft picks back
Sydney 5th: 3rd Round Selection = (pick 32) = 584
Collingwood 13th 2nd Round Selection (pick 24) = 785
Collingwood also receives pick 70 in 2017 draft = 39 points
Points Difference = 201 Points between 2nd and 3rd round pick swap, less 39 points for current pick 70 = 162.
This roughly equates to pick 59 (158 points). Seems realistic considering we receive a player.
Now, Im no mathematician, and if I have got the numbers and calculations above wrong, then feel free to constructively fix it, Im just trying to give a little perspective on the whole issue.
The thing is, this trade cannot be truly judged until a few things occur.
Firstly, where we finish next year. Worst vs Best Case scenario is a marked difference (pick 28 (IN POINTS ONLY) vs. nothing).
Secondly, and more importantly, if Sam Murray adds to our list/game play, plays 22 games (and hopefully finals) etc, then and only then, can we see the true value of what we gave up to bring him in.
Attached is the Points Values for each draft pick |
Interesting and useful. Thanks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
|
|
The Rules
FAQ
Usergroups
Calendar
Search
Log in
Register
