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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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| David wrote: | | swoop42 wrote: | We have a President of the United States deciding to side with a Russian President over and above the advice of his own national security services (who have now laid charges) regarding Russian meddling in the US Presidential election.
This isn't fake news David, this is real and while I don't pretend to be anything but a casual observer or possess academia level knowledge on US Russia relations I can only imagine your youth has lead you to not fully grasping the history of these two countries during the cold war and Reagan era of Republican rule.
Even if we acknowledge a lot of hysteria was at play during this period the sentiment of distrust towards Russia remains today and why shouldn't it?
We have a Russian President who has reportedly accumulated billions of dollars in personal wealth during his time in office and resides over a country that doesn't hold free and fair elections. It is often referred to as a Mafia state.
We have a Russian military that have invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine and Russian rebels that shot down a commercial airliner killing hundreds.
We have seen Russian military involvement in Syria aiding Bashar al-Assad who hasn't been afraid to use chemical weapons and turn whole cities to rubble in his quest to stay in power. The US has provided some level of support to the opponents of Bashar al-Assad.
It's been reported that a number of vocal Putin critics have died in a suspicious or violent manner during his years in power. Russian operatives were prepared to use a deadly nerve agent on British soil leading to the expulsion of Russian diplomats from many countries in protest.
And the list goes on and on.
Why Trump would want to align himself in anyway with Putin is truly mind blowing and how his band of supporters react is going to be very interesting.
Are they the true patriots they like to paint themselves as being or is the cult of Trump more alluring. |
Swoop, I'm no expert either, but I do know a fair bit about Cold War history, and also about what has taken place in Russia since 1991. Besides my own reading, my girlfriend grew up in the Soviet Union – and, I should add, is a vociferous anti-Putinist, as am I – so I have learned a lot through her insights too. I am already very well aware of all of the facts that you mentioned above, for instance, and you can easily do a search on here over the past 5–6 years to find out what my views on Putin are.
There are a lot of suspect things about Trump's attitude towards Russia. Likely, he has always seen Putin as a natural ally because of what he represents to sections of the identitarian and arch-conservative American right: the kind of strong (macho), white, nationalist, near-dictatorial leader that they secretly want, because they crave authoritarianism. And I do wonder sometimes whether the rumours about Russians holding compromising material on him are true (see the article I posted a few days back). But blackmail or no blackmail, one thing that Trump gets right on Russia, as he seems to on North Korea lately, is that diplomacy is nearly always a vastly preferable option to ratcheting up tensions. Sensible international politics 101 is that you accept that the world is full of unpalatable regimes (very much including the US and its intelligence operatives, let's not forget) – so the "we don't negotiate with terrorists" approach is a pointless, isolationist position that only serves to greatly increase the risk of eventual armed conflict. I don't necessarily oppose economic sanctions in certain situations, but they should always be used cautiously and justifiably, not just piled on in order to look tough.
Russiagate is, to my mind, one of the biggest beat-ups of the century, and I think we need to look at why it's happening. Those of us in Australia can look at the US under Trump from a safe distance and shake our heads in dismay, but we're not ultimately too directly affected by it. To many over there, though – particularly those who are wedded to the established neoliberal order – Trump's election has caused them to totally flip out. Not only because he is completely demolishing domestic gains in many areas while giving power to the crazies on the far-right, but because he is so catastrophically inept and unsuited to being president, and that has (somewhat understandably) freaked them out. We're used to ineptitude here – laughing at Tony Abbott was just part of the great Australian tradition of disrespecting our leaders – but Americans are different. Just as they genuinely believe that they live in the God-ordained greatest country in the history of humanity, they treat their presidents as semi-deities (or else demons from outer space), so this is a long, traumatic moment of loss of innocence for them. And that seems to have manifested in an exercise in denial of the election results, and a desire to delegitimise them at any cost.
What are the facts of 'Russiagate'? We know that various Russian social media farms (possibly directed by the government, possibly acting independently) sought to influence American voters to believe in right-wing fake news stories in an attempt to swing the election to Trump. We know that Wikileaks received and published internal emails from the Democratic Party, possibly aided by Russian hackers. And we know that some Russian middle-men tried to meet up with Trump's campaign team offering dirt on Clinton but that they didn't get very far. However horrifying one finds these revelations – frankly, to this day, I'm glad that the DNC emails were hacked, as they were corrupt and deserved to be exposed, and I hope that someone does the same to, say, the Blairites in the British Labour Party one day (check this shit out); and the stuff about collusion between Trump's team and nefarious Russian businesspeople seems like a whole pile of nothing – not one of them indicates that the election results were in any way illegitimate or 'hacked'. So why all the hysteria? And where is the acceptance that the US has a long history of interfering in other countries' elections (often much more forcefully) and that, at worst, they received a little bit of a taste of their own medicine? What is it exactly that people think organisations like the CIA do?
I don't know what the probe will end up uncovering. Maybe Trump will turn out to be a Russian agent, but it seems much more likely that he won't, and that what we've learned so far isn't the tip of the iceberg but, like, pretty much the whole thing. And if that's it, then frankly I think it's eaten up way more airtime than it deserved. Putin's Russia should be regarded warily, and its instincts for expansionism should be curtailed. But that doesn't mean that diplomacy is treasonous; those of us watching from the sidelines should be relieved that, on this front at least, things seem relatively stable for the time being. |
I agree with a great deal of that. Of course I do not accept that the Us is, by world historic standards, an “unpalatable regime” though it may be getting there under Trump. It is easy, if you have lived all your life in peace and freedom under a US security umbrella, to misunderstand what a truly unapalatable regime feels like.
More substantively, however, diplomacy is not simply the obverse of military or economic pressure. Indeed, without economic and military pressure, diplomacy is very often next to useless. And when it come to truly nasty regimes which have no values other than raw power, diplomacy can be positively unhelpful. The QED of this is, of course, Munich.
I think the question here is whether you can really describe
Trump’s drooling progress around the more septic chancelleries of the world as “diplomacy”. I can’t think of a definition of diplomacy that really fits this kind of blundering about, and I doubt that it will reduce the risk of armed conflict - a risk which I have never felt particularly high vis a vis Russia or NK, where the US is concerned.
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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You all make me laugh.
Have a look at obama here...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsFR8DbSRQE
Yet this never rated a mention??
What TF is wrong with this world!!! We have a leader, of the most powerful country in the world, who is doing more (like what he does or not) than any other before him. He means what he says and he says what he means.
I find him to be the biggest breath of fresh air in this £$%$ed up world than I've ever seen.
TRUMP 2020 
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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^ “After my next election I have more flexibility”.... that was it ? ....Said no democratic politician ever !? It’s just true that elections impose certain necessities which government does not. I think you’d have to have some pretty maidenly sensibilities to be scandalized by that. And then... errr.... nothing happened.
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swoop42 
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
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I'm struggling to think exactly what the "great" things Trump has done outside of pandering to his base with executive orders or giving tax breaks that benefit the wealthy establishment the most.
He sure has a way to go to catch the likes of Lincoln, Washington, F D Roosevelt, T Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Truman, Jefferson and Kennedy.
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He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
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think positive 
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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No love fo4 obama?
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Yeah, I don’t think that’s quite the smoking gun you’re looking for, Skids. Better to bring up various presidents’ (including Obama and Trump) insistent kowtowing to Saudi royals. There, at least, the national interest is clear –$$$$$ – but it comes at the cost of propping up a state that sponsors terrorism and, of course, has one of the worst human rights records of any state.
International alliances are so fickle and amoral that I honestly don’t see the point in Russia being an adversary of the US rather than an ally, and if Trump is turning them from the former to the latter, what’s the problem, exactly? In a moral world, I would like to see Putin overthrown and for his administration to suffer for its manipulation of the democratic process, imprisonment or assassination of political opponents, persecution of LGBTI people and occupations of Ukraine and Georgia. But I would equally like the same thing to happen to Saudi Arabia, Israel and China. So the idea that it’s fundamentally treacherous to not treat Russia as a geopolitical foe seems like special pleading from people who are still a little too attached to Cold War mentality.
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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Seems pretty obvious that the establishment want another Cold War with Russia; Hillary was frothing to start shit and I think we can all breathe a sigh of relief that we didn't need to see how that evil cow 'dealt with' Putin.
What exactly was Trump meant to do? Insult him? Beat him up? Shoot him? Obama kowtowed to just about every foreign leader; Trump shows politeness and friendliness and he's eviscerated (as usual) in the lying media. I'm pretty happy that we've gone from a countdown to WW3 to worrying about Trump being overly cordial. It's not a "peace in our time" moment, it's international diplomacy with a powerful nation that can end you many times over at the push of a button. |
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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| David wrote: | Yeah, I don’t think that’s quite the smoking gun you’re looking for, Skids. Better to bring up various presidents’ (including Obama and Trump) insistent kowtowing to Saudi royals. There, at least, the national interest is clear –$$$$$ – but it comes at the cost of propping up a state that sponsors terrorism and, of course, has one of the worst human rights records of any state.
International alliances are so fickle and amoral that I honestly don’t see the point in Russia being an adversary of the US rather than an ally, and if Trump is turning them from the former to the latter, what’s the problem, exactly? In a moral world, I would like to see Putin overthrown and for his administration to suffer for its manipulation of the democratic process, imprisonment or assassination of political opponents, persecution of LGBTI people and occupations of Ukraine and Georgia. But I would equally like the same thing to happen to Saudi Arabia, Israel and China. So the idea that it’s fundamentally treacherous to not treat Russia as a geopolitical foe seems like special pleading from people who are still a little too attached to Cold War mentality. |
Can you explain where the US has “kowtowed” to the Saudis ? I’d appreciate evidence of this abject submission. There has been an alliance with KSA as one of the US’s few allies in the ME, certainly. But I see no evidence of the US abasing itself. In international affairs, you base alliances upon shared values where possible, and shared interests always. The US-SA fits the latter case.
And is there really any evidence that the Saudis actually sponsor terrorism ? They do sponsor the Wahhabist ideology which underpins some of it, but I think the evidence is that the Saudis dislike terrorism because it threatens them too (Bin Laden was a Saudi rebel), AND because they do not want to provoke the US. In all of the Wikileaks and other stuff, I have not noted any sustained charge that the KSA has deliberately funded terror cells or sponsored terrorism. It’s a bit like the charge that the Catholic Church sponsors child abuse : a rhetorical flourish with an epidermis of truth, but in reality more a poorly managed side-effect of a bankrupt culture, than an intention.
Equally, the KSA indeed has a pretty lamentable record on human rights, but it feeds and educates and employs its people, and it does have a legal system which administers justice by the lights of its own culture and laws. It has a low murder and crime rate. I dislike many aspects of it but I don’t know that it is really “among the worst of any state” on human rights. Indeed, for the majority of its citizens, a number of whom I know, it is one of the most desirable places to live in the world. The worst thing about it, by far, is its treatment of migrant workers. Its treatment of women and homosexuals is flat wrong in my view, but i am not an Arab, and I understand that discretion hides more tolerance than we might think. Change is also glacially advancing with regard to women, at least It’s not enough, but it’s not nearly “the worst of any state”. That’s hyperbole, with perhaps a dusting of imperialism.
I have no desire to apologize for the corrupt and venal and unsustainable Saudi regime or its miserable arid version of Islam, but it is a manageable relationship in a region of boiling chaos, and in the US’s shoes I too would be trying to maintain an alliance. Oil may play a part, but if so, it’s not really clear to me how. The Us buys Saudi oil at world spot prices, and OPEC assuredly does not function in the interests of the U.S. it’s a fashionable slogan, but if you think it is just about oil, you would need to explain how and why given the way that industry works. The US is a net oil exporter at the moment, yet its relationship with the Saudis has changed little. Doesn't add up. I’d say it fits with the US’s historic desire for orderly international trade and pro-American (and Israel-tolerant) stability in the ME.
International alliances are not completely amoral, but all of us accept that you cannot apply a Puritan morality to all of life, and you cannot choose only allies that share your values.
As for Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, well, as ?I wrote above, it’s not pretty but it is also not hard to understand and it flows from the role the Eu and NATO have played in cornering Russia, and Russia’s tragic history. If you try to annex Ukraine to the EU you are going to get a reaction.
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Saudi Arabia is only as much of a centre of stability as Iran is – both are quite keen to maintain their own sphere of influence in the region (Iran = Assad’s Syria, Lebanon, Qatar (?), Shia Iraq and Palestine; Saudi Arabia = Jordan and most of the gulf states), but also perfectly happy to cause chaos if it means they can undermine the other. If the US wanted to be a force for peace and stability in the region, they would be looking to help de-escalate the struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia and work with both of them, not going all in on one side (as Russia has also done with Iran). At least Obama took meaningful steps in that direction, which Trump has potentially catastrophically reversed by tearing up the Iran deal.
As for Saudi sponsorship of terrorism, this Wikipedia article is a good start. My impression is that the state doesn’t do so directly, but that it willingly turns a blind eye to the many powerful Saudi figures who do:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-sponsored_terrorism#Saudi_Arabia
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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If Saudi had collapsed into an Iran-style hostility to Israel and the West, or even worse, into Islamist chaos, the vital trade routes of the Straits of Suez and the Persian Gulf come under threat. The US’s support for the Saudi government reflects this fact, and its alliance has demonstrably worked well in that regard.
I share your view that U.s policy towards iran has been wrong-headed, and the US would do well (short of kowtowing) to acknowledge its own sins in overthrowing Mossadeq, but that is quite a different question. I doubt you sincerely believe that the US is the nation that will broker that peace !
The link you provided seems to me to support my view that terrorism via K.s.a has been rather like child abuse in the Catholic Church (and other institutions). A nasty side effect, negligently handled, with some culpability, but not the blanket sponsorship you claimed.
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Two more flags before I die! |
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roar
Joined: 01 Sep 2004
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| Skids wrote: | You all make me laugh.
He means what he says and he says what he means.
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Now that comment made me laugh so much I almost pissed my pants. One thing for certain is that Trump is not a straight talker - he constantly lies/makes up bs. Constantly.
With the Putin thing he has just said that he mispoke at the conference and what he meant to say was that Russia did has a reason to meddle in the election. How can anybody with a double-digit IQ not see how ridiculous that comment was. Even more ridiculous than the original comment of being convinced by Putin that they had nothing to do with it because he denied it so strongly.
I do agree that having better relations with Russia is a good thing but Trump should have handled it much better.
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kill for collingwood! |
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roar
Joined: 01 Sep 2004
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| Wokko wrote: | |
This is great!
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kill for collingwood! |
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thesoretoothsayer
Joined: 26 Apr 2017
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I gotta say, I find it hilarious that the most powerful man in the world is making it all up as he's going along.
Stop worrying and enjoy the presidency for what it is : the best reality TV show EVER. |
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roar
Joined: 01 Sep 2004
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Problem is, I really dislike reality TV.
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