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Peter Dutton: Lebanese migration was a mistake

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Mountains Magpie 



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:53 pm
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The current Peter Dutton thing has me saying WTF a lot.
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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:07 pm
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Mountains Magpie wrote:
The current Peter Dutton thing has me saying WTF a lot.

To what he said himself, or the reaction from others to what he said?

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:13 pm
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^ This perfectly sums up the current state of discussion over immigration in this country: WTF.
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Mountains Magpie 



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Somewhere between now and then

PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:23 am
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Jezza wrote:
Mountains Magpie wrote:
The current Peter Dutton thing has me saying WTF a lot.

To what he said himself, or the reaction from others to what he said?


If people are going to be called all sorts of names for stating what they believe to be facts then we are all in trouble.

If what Mr Dutton said is factually incorrect then I'd like to think that somebody would bring the correct information to his, and by extension the nation's, attention.

However, if what he said is true, where are the people seeking solutions to what he has highlighted, and perhaps more importantly, who is giving those people a voice?

MM

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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:48 pm
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Any danger from anyone of a link to what Dutton said?
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David Libra

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:10 pm
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Here it is. It's not pretty.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/11/21/peter-dutton-says-it-was-mistake-bringing-lebanese-refugees-australia

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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:21 pm
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OK, Thanks for that.

What's not pretty about it if his stat is factual? His conclusion that we made a mistake?

Maybe we did in bringing them in, maybe we did in expecting them to assimilate as quickly as the European migrants in the 60's and didn't put enough resource into them.

The Lebs tend to form their own clique around the areas where there are a lot of them like Thommo and Epping whereas the european migrants children are largely indistinguishable from the general populace by the second generation

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:41 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
OK, Thanks for that.

What's not pretty about it if his stat is factual? His conclusion that we made a mistake?

Maybe we did in bringing them in, maybe we did in expecting them to assimilate as quickly as the European migrants in the 60's and didn't put enough resource into them.

The Lebs tend to form their own clique around the areas where there are a lot of them like Thommo and Epping whereas the european migrants children are largely indistinguishable from the general populace by the second generation


I think this is a real case of "damn lies and statistics". Looks bad when you say 66% of terror suspects have been Lebanese; doesn't look so bad when you realise that terror suspects make up 0.02% of the total Lebanese population. As the article below rather astutely notes (and if you want some truly scary/astonishing statistics, that 1 in 20 figure for Catholic priests is mind-blowing):

https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/richard-cooke/2016/23/2016/1479858182/letting-catholic-priests-australia-was-mistake

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Mountains Magpie 



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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:06 pm
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Statistics do not change facts David.
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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:06 pm
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David wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
OK, Thanks for that.

What's not pretty about it if his stat is factual? His conclusion that we made a mistake?

Maybe we did in bringing them in, maybe we did in expecting them to assimilate as quickly as the European migrants in the 60's and didn't put enough resource into them.

The Lebs tend to form their own clique around the areas where there are a lot of them like Thommo and Epping whereas the european migrants children are largely indistinguishable from the general populace by the second generation


I think this is a real case of "damn lies and statistics". Looks bad when you say 66% of terror suspects have been Lebanese; doesn't look so bad when you realise that terror suspects make up 0.02% of the total Lebanese population. As the article below rather astutely notes (and if you want some truly scary/astonishing statistics, that 1 in 20 figure for Catholic priests is mind-blowing):

https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/richard-cooke/2016/23/2016/1479858182/letting-catholic-priests-australia-was-mistake


I've got zero interest in 'revenge' articles about catholic priests. That's just deflection as much as I have no time for the egyptian sun cult currently referred to as the catholic church.

Lies, damn lies and statistics indeed. If 66% of terrorists are of Lebanese origin we have an issue, despite the percentage of the population that represents.

Criminals represent what percent of the general population? I'm guessing a small number, does that mean we ignore crime?

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:49 pm
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Mountains Magpie wrote:
Statistics do not change facts David.


I'm not sure I understand what you mean by that. In this case, the statistics are the facts, as far as any of us know. What other facts do we have access to here?

stui magpie wrote:
David wrote:


I think this is a real case of "damn lies and statistics". Looks bad when you say 66% of terror suspects have been Lebanese; doesn't look so bad when you realise that terror suspects make up 0.02% of the total Lebanese population. As the article below rather astutely notes (and if you want some truly scary/astonishing statistics, that 1 in 20 figure for Catholic priests is mind-blowing):

https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/richard-cooke/2016/23/2016/1479858182/letting-catholic-priests-australia-was-mistake


I've got zero interest in 'revenge' articles about catholic priests. That's just deflection as much as I have no time for the egyptian sun cult currently referred to as the catholic church.

Lies, damn lies and statistics indeed. If 66% of terrorists are of Lebanese origin we have an issue, despite the percentage of the population that represents.

Criminals represent what percent of the general population? I'm guessing a small number, does that mean we ignore crime?


The article is more useful when you look at it less as a 'revenge piece' or 'whataboutery' – both genres I have little time for – and more as a means of highlighting Dutton's hypocrisy and the absurdity of his logic. But we don't need such comparisons to point out how dangerously irrational his comments were.

Let's look at the other end of this: what sort of data would you need to suggest that a given demographic of immigrants was bad news and shouldn't have been let into the country to the extent they were? Some incidence of crime clearly wouldn't be enough, because all demographics are responsible for crimes to some extent or other. While there are few statistics available in this area, longitudinal studies in countries such as Sweden have suggested that about 4% of the population will be convicted of one or more violent crimes in their lifetimes. So, you would need a greater percentage than that to even begin to think that there was something wrong with that cohort in general.

Furthermore, you've got to expect some distribution around any average. So, you're not going to sound the alarms if a certain population group reports 4.1% conviction of violent crime, or even 5% for that matter. You would need a real outlier figure – say, at least double the average – to suggest that there was a problem here.

I chose 'violent crime' as a broad category because I think it represents a pretty good picture of the things we don't want most in our society – murder, king-hits, bashings, domestic violence, rape and so on. Of course I could have just said 'all crime', but I don't think too many of us are going to lose sleep over an overrepresentation of Germans being arrested for indecent exposure; and even though property crimes are a problem, most would agree that it's crimes against the person that most of us are really terrified by.

So let's stick with this broad category of violent crime. What happens when we drill down into those figures? As a totally random example, let's say that New Zealanders are overrepresented in one form of violent crime – say, nightclub king-hits – but underrepresented in another – say, violent muggings – and otherwise fall in line roughly with the national average on all violent crime. Would you conclude from that that we have a 'Kiwi problem'? I don't think so; you'd tend to focus on the groups that are overrepresented in violent crime as a whole.

Why? Because when you drill down into specific crimes, the overall numbers start to get pretty low. 4% is already a small minority – about the same percentage of Australians who think the moon landings were faked or voted for One Nation – but it's still a statistically significant one. The percentage of king-hitters would be substantially lower, maybe a hundredth of overall violent crime; so more like 0.04% of the entire population. And if Kiwis king-hit at a rate of twice that, 0.08%, the whole idea of a 'Kiwi problem' becomes laughable – because we know that 99.92% of New Zealanders aren't doing this. In raw numbers, you might be looking at a couple of dozen guys who've done it. Can you really demonise an entire nationality because of the actions of a statistically insignificant minority? Even if we somehow establish that New Zealand does have a somewhat more kinghit-happy culture than we do?

That's what we're dealing with here: 22 individuals in a population of 80,000. Convicted of terror offences, which might range from anything from trying to blow up the MCG to sending a couple of bucks to the boys on the front line. This is what people are referring to when they use the term 'statistically insignificant'.

Ah, you might say, but what about all the other things Lebanese people are doing? And yes, there might be broader passive support for terrorism in the Lebanese community, or a high rate of unrelated violence. But we're not getting that information from Dutton's '2 in 3' stat. It could just as easily be like the hypothetical above; Lebanese people might be overrepresented in some areas and underrepresented in others. Without statistics, it's just conjecture, and if there's one thing I hope we can agree on it's that you shouldn't be demonising an entire nationality based on guesswork.

But all of this overlooks something fundamental: that even if there was a 'Lebanese problem', Dutton would have still been wrong to say what he did. If you know a certain demographic is having issues, you try to work out what's going on and put measures in place (generally working with the community) to fix it. That's the decent response here; not drawing a line through a certain national group and declaring them a lost cause.

To refuse someone entry to the country because of their ethnic or national background is unjust and discriminatory. It's the sign of a society that has descended into jackboot authoritarianism. I'm perfectly aware that it's a concept that's being normalised right now, by Donald Trump and others in the far-right movement, but quite a few of us in this country still think that that is an abhorrent policy to take. If you don't understand why this kind of profiling is wrong or the effect that it has on people – in this case, the 99.98% of Lebanese people who have never been convicted of a terror offence but have now had Dutton's scarlet letter daubed on them – then I think that demonstrates a serious lack of understanding of what it is like to be on the wrong end of institutionalised discrimination and prejudice. And a serious case of apathy regarding human rights. In that regard, perhaps we really do have a 'white Australian' problem.

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swoop42 Virgo

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:15 am
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He's right.

Not a fan.

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Mugwump 



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PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 3:54 am
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David wrote:

To refuse someone entry to the country because of their ethnic or national background is unjust and discriminatory. It's the sign of a society that has descended into jackboot authoritarianism. Perhaps we really do have a 'white Australian' problem.


You are right about the statistics, in a sense, but two concepts underlie what we call "risk" - firstly, probability of occurrence ; and secondly, consequence of occurrence. Serious terrorism combines indiscriminate mass murder on an unprecedented scale and treason which rends the fabric of our society and its cohesion. A very small increase in it carries enormous effects, and if there is a significant tendency for it to appear more in one community than another then that is a justifiable source of concern and basis for policy action.

As for
David wrote:
To refuse someone entry to the country because of their ethnic or national background is unjust and discriminatory.And a serious case of apathy regarding human rights.


We have no business discriminating against people who are part of or society. However, assuming there is evidence of a disproportionate contribution to terrorism from certain aspirant migrant groups, there is no right to migrate to Australia, or right under Australia equality law, which should prevent us focusing our migration policy on those groups who are least likely to kill us or our children for political ends. That of course makes no racial supposition.

These are difficult waters and we should take care not to inflame inter-ethnic tensions or demonise local citizens. But those are pragmatic considerations, not ethical ones.

Finally, if you had actually had the experience of living under real "jackbooted authoritarianism", I think you might be less liberal with that rhetoric, lest you fail to recognise it when the real thing arrives.

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Culprit Cancer



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PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 5:16 am
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Dutton and the LNP are reacting to Trump/Hanson populism. The LNP are dropping in the polls and the one thing that gets people to react and will give them a boost in the polls is an attack on the minority of criminal immigrants re Apex, Middle Eastern Crime gangs. In saying that growing up I hear I am a "Lebanese Australian" and funny enough they are the 3rd 4th Generation Australians. All of a sudden after Dutton's attack they are now Australians and feel victimised. A few years back we had a few hundred piss off back to Lebanon as that is what they called home. Israel started bombing the shit out of the place and once again they were Australians and wanted the Australian Government to rescue them and fly them home. The same minority hate Australia but love the welfare system. Is Dutton correct? We are talking a small percentage of the Lebanese immigrants are just scum. The same can be said for every group of immigrants and even Australians. Julian Knight, Craig Minogue, Adrian Ernest Bayley & Sean Price are just a few white homegrown Australians that have done some horrific crimes and by what Dutton has come out with it's Englands fault for sending out convicts to Australia.
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think positive Libra

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 5:52 am
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Great post, nearly had me cheering til you blamed us poms anyway.
As for the lebos, well I know a few good ones, but me mate is not happy that that .08% all live in a big ugly pink monstrosity on the corner of her street in altona north! More than once she has been evacuated, or had the swat team escort her through her front door!

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