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Mighty Magpie’s 2017 Season Preview

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:14 pm
Post subject: Mighty Magpie’s 2017 Season PreviewReply with quote

Mighty Magpie’s 2017 Season Preview

This is the follow up to my 2016 preview: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?p=1641049&highlight=mighty+magpie+2016+season+preview#1641049

Largely for my own purposes, but also for anyone who is interested, I propose to write a preview of the 2017 season from a Pies' perspective. It will undoubtedly be a bit piecemeal as I write bits when I get time (I reply to the thread when I do major updates/additions), but I broadly intend to cover the following:

• Review of 2016.

• Player availability/injuries in 2016 and trends.

• Player-by-player review for retained players.

• List management (changes in and out and draftees come the draft).

• Our fixture.

My intention is for this to be a bit of a "one-stop-shop" for information heading into the 2017 season.

Anyway, feel free to post any comments (preferably polite), corrections, different viewpoints/opinions or additional information.

Much of this is pulling together work done by others and I try to acknowledge when I do use others' work. If I do fail to do this along the way I apologise and feel free to send me a PM and I will correct it asap.

2016 Season – A Game-By-Game Review

[EDIT: This section will read as a chronology which I found useful when "re-living" the season and, in particular, when considering the injury issues we faced along the way. Hopefully it isn't too painful to read in this format.]

Game scores, best players, goals and injuries sourced from afl.com.

Pre-NAB Challenge Adam Treloar, Jeremy Howe, Jamie Elliott and Tyson Goldsack were all on limited programs as they attempted to recover from their respective injuries. Tim Broomhead, Ben Sinclair and Tom Langdon all resumed full training prior to the NAB Challenge after various stints on the sidelines.

A good NAB Challenge set expectations high for the season proper:

COL 0.21.5 (131) def GEE 2.16.9 (123) Best: Sidebottom, Cox, De Goey, Fasolo, Swan. Goals: Fasolo 5, Swan 3, Gault 3,Blair 2, Cox 2, Grundy 2, Macaffer, Greenwood, Sidebottom, Witts. Injuries: Smith (ankle), Broomhead (arm).

COL 0.12.13 (85) def NM 1.10.8 (77) Best: Adams, Greenwood, Varcoe, Fasolo, Pendlebury, Gault. Goals: Gault 3, Varcoe 2, Fasolo 2, Adams 2, Pendlebury, Goodyear, Blair. Injuries: Langdon (finger).

COL 1.15.8 (107) def WBD 1.14.12 (105) Best: Treloar, Adams, Moore, De Goey, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Swan. Goals: Moore 4, Varcoe 2, Gault 2, Cloke 2, Treloar 2, Fasolo, Blair, Crisp. Injuries: Nil.

Heading into round 1 there were injury clouds over Jamie Elliott (back) indefinite, Tyson Goldsack (knee tendinitis) test, Jeremy Howe (finger and foot) test, Brent Macaffer (calf) TBC, Ben Reid (calf) test, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season.

After the NAB Challenge came the reality …

Rd 1: SYD 18.25 (133) def COL 7.11 (53) @ SCG Best: Treloar, Adams, Sidebottom, Blair, Greenwood. Goals: Greenwood, Crisp, De Goey, Moore, Fasolo, Treloar, Maynard. Injuries: Swan (ankle), Williams (knee), Brown (shoulder).

0-1 (17th)

Heading into round 2 the injury list had grown - Tim Broomhead (shoulder) test, Nathan Brown (hamstring) test, Josh Smith (ankle) test, Marley Williams (knee) test, Travis Varcoe (hamstring) 2-3 weeks, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot ) 15-20 weeks, Jamie Elliott (back) indefinite, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season.

And then a nailbiter to keep fans invested …

Rd 2: COL 13.9 (87) def RIC 12.14 (86) @ MCG Best: Fasolo, Pendlebury, Adams, Treloar, Greenwood, Reid. Goals: Fasolo 6, Grundy 2, Moore, De Goey, Langdon, Cloke, Aish. Injuries: Nil. Suspensions: Sidebottom (2 games).

1-1 (14th)

Heading into round 3 the injury list was Tim Broomhead (shoulder) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) indefinite, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Travis Varcoe (hamstring) test, ), Jarrod Witts (split webbing) test , Darrean Wyatt (concussion) test.

Rd 3: STK 18.11 (119) def COL 14.6 (90) @ MCG Best: Adams, Langdon, Oxley, Pendlebury. Goals: Fasolo 2, Cloke 2, De Goey 2, Pendlebury 2, Howe, Aish, Crisp, Oxley, Langdon, Adams. Injuries: Williams (toe).

1-2 (14th)

Heading into round 4 the injury list was Jamie Elliott (back ) indefinite, , Jonathan Marsh (hamstring) test, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Josh Smith (corked thigh) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Travis Varcoe (hamstring) test, Marley Williams (mid-foot strain) 4 weeks, Jarrod Witts (split webbing) test.

Rd 4: MEL 16.6 (102) def COL 9.13 (67) @ MCG Best: Pendlebury, Treloar, Sidebottom, Adams, Langdon. Goals: Cloke 2, Sidebottom 2, Varcoe, Treloar, Sinclair, Fasolo, Moore. Injuries: Goldsack (illness) replaced in side by White, Reid (knee), Sinclair (concussion), Cloke (elbow).

1-3 (15th)

Elliott (back ) 4-12 weeks, Corey Gault (concussion) test, Jonathan Marsh (hamstring) test, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Ben Reid (knee) test, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Ben Sinclair (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Marley Williams (mid-foot strain) 3 weeks, Jarrod Witts (split webbing) test.

The big one (well, not so big in 2016 given the Essendon situation, but at least I got to watch it from the MCC members) …

Rd 5: COL 22.10 (142) def ESS 11.7 (73) @ MCG Best: Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Treloar, Fasolo, Reid, Adams. Goals: Sidebottom 4, Fasolo 4, Blair 3, Howe 2, Moore 2, Greenwood 2, Cox, Oxley, Smith, De Goey, Adams. Injuries: Varcoe (hamstring).

2-3 (11th)

Heading into round 6 the injury list was Taylor Adams (knee) TBC, Jamie Elliott (back ) 4-12 weeks, Corey Gault (concussion) test, Tyson Goldsack (fractured thumb) 4 weeks, Tom Langdon (knee) test, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Ben Sinclair (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Travis Varcoe (hamstring) TBC, Marley Williams (mid-foot strain) 2 weeks, Jarrod Witts (split webbing) test.

I should have known the previous week was too good to be true and I had to sit through this in my home town …

Rd 6: WCE 18.16 (124) def COL 9.8 (62) @DS Best: Pendlebury, Grundy, Cox, Smith, Treloar. Goals: Cox 2, Moore 2, Broomhead 2, Greenwood, Crisp, Blair. Injuries: Langdon (right ankle), Sinclair (head knock).

2-4 (13th)

Heading into round 7 the injury list was Taylor Adams (knee) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) 4-8 weeks, Corey Gault (concussion) test, Tyson Goldsack (fractured thumb) 3 weeks, Tom Langdon (ankle) test, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Ben Sinclair (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Travis Varcoe (hamstring) test, Marley Williams (mid-foot strain) 2-4 weeks, Jarrod Witts (split webbing) test.

And it only got worse …

Rd 7: CAR 15.9 (99) def COL 12.12 (84) @ MCG Best: Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Fasolo, Treloar. Goals: Fasolo 4, Moore 3, White 2, Blair, Greenwood, Broomhead. Injuries: Broomhead (ankle) , Reid (shoulder).

2-5 (14th)

Heading into round 8 the injury list was Taylor Adams (knee) test, Tim Broomhead (ankle) 3-4 weeks, Nathan Brown (hamstring) test, Travis Cloke (back) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) 4-6 weeks, Corey Gault (concussion) test, Tyson Goldsack (fractured thumb) 1-2 weeks, Tom Langdon (ankle) 1-2 weeks, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Ben Reid (shoulder) 1 week, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Ben Sinclair (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Travis Varcoe (hamstring) test, Marley Williams (mid-foot strain) test.

Surely we could beat the Bears (we could) …

Rd 8: COL 20.23 (143) def BRI 10.5 (65) @ Gabba Best: Treloar, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Blair, De Goey, Oxley. Goals: Cox 4, White 3, Crocker 3, Treloar 3, Adams, Blair, De Goey, Fasolo, Grundy, Moore, Varcoe. Injuries: Cox (hand).

3-5 (12th)

Heading into round 9 the injury list was Tim Broomhead (ankle) 2-3 weeks, Nathan Brown (hamstring) test, Mason Cox (hand) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) 4-6 weeks, Corey Gault (concussion) test, Tyson Goldsack (fractured thumb) test, Tom Langdon (ankle) 1-2 weeks, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Ben Reid (shoulder) test, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Ben Sinclair (concussion) 1 week, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Travis Varcoe (hamstring) test, Marley Williams (mid-foot strain) test, Rupert Wills (calf) test.

Do we dare to believe?

Rd 9: COL 16.8 (104) def GEE 11.14 (80) @ MCG Best: Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Howe, Treloar, Adams, Grundy, Greenwood. Goals: Pendlebury 3, Fasolo 2, White 2, Cox 2, Grundy 2, Treloar, Crisp, Crocker, Moore, De Goey. Injuries: Nil.

Yes we do!

4-5 (11th)

Heading into round 10 the injury list was Tim Broomhead (ankle) 2-3 weeks, Nathan Brown (hamstring) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Corey Gault (concussion) test, Tom Langdon (ankle) 2-3 weeks, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Ben Sinclair (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Rupert Wills (calf) test.

Rd 10: WBD 11.8 (74) def COL 7.11 (53) @ MCG Best: Sidebottom, Reid, Howe, Pendlebury, Greenwood, Treloar. Goals: Moore 2, Fasolo, Pendlebury, Crocker, Blair, Treloar. Injuries: Toovey (concussion), Adams (hamstring, knee), Fasolo (shoulder), Moore (shoulder).

4-6 (12th)

Heading into round 11 the injury list was Taylor Adams (hamstring) 4-6 weeks, Tim Broomhead (ankle) 2-3 weeks, Ben Crocker (ankle) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (fractured scapula) 4-5 weeks, Tom Langdon (ankle) 2-3 weeks, Darcy Moore (fractured collarbone) 4-5 weeks, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Ben Sinclair (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Alan Toovey (concussion) test.

Rd 11: PTA 19.11 (125) def COL 7.16 (58 ) @ MCG Best: Pendlebury, Howe, Greenwood, Treloar, Sidebottom. Goals: Sidebottom 2, Cox 2, Pendlebury, De Goey, Grundy. Injuries: Howe (left knee).

4-7 (12th)

Heading into round 12 the injury list was Taylor Adams (hamstring) 4-5 weeks, Tim Broomhead (ankle) 2 weeks, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (fractured scapula) 4 weeks, Tom Langdon (ankle) 2 weeks, Darcy Moore (fractured collarbone) 3-4 weeks, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season.

Rd 12: MEL 16.8 (104) def COL 8.10 (58 ) @ MCG Best: Treloar, Pendlebury, Howe, De Goey, Varcoe. Goals: Cox 2, Maynard, White, Sidebottom, Varcoe, Greenwood, Grundy. Injuries: J Frost (shoulder), Reid (left knee), Pendlebury (left ankle).

4-8 (14th)

Heading into the round 13 bye the injury list was Taylor Adams (hamstring) 3-4 weeks, Tim Broomhead (ankle) 1-2 weeks, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (fractured scapula) 3-4 weeks, Jack Frost (shoulder) TBC, Tom Langdon (ankle) 1-2 weeks, Darcy Moore (fractured collarbone) 2-3 weeks, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Ben Reid (knee) TBC, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season.

Rd 13: Bye

Heading into round 14 the injury list was Taylor Adams (hamstring) 2-3 weeks, Tim Broomhead (ankle) 1-2 weeks, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (fractured scapula) 3-4 weeks, Tom Langdon (ankle) 1-2 weeks, Darcy Moore (fractured collarbone) 2-3 weeks, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Ben Reid (knee) TBC, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Brayden Sier (hand) 3-4 weeks, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season.

Rd 14: COL 12.13 (85) def FRE 5.7 (37) @ MCG Best: Treloar, Pendlebury, Crisp, Reid, Smith, Howe. Goals: Cox 2, White 2, Cloke 2, Greenwood, Phillips, De Goey, Treloar, Smith, Aish. Injuries Nil.

5-8 (14th)

Heading into round 15 the injury list was Taylor Adams (hamstring) 1-2 weeks, Tim Broomhead (ankle) test, Ben Crocker (knee tendinitis) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (fractured scapula) test, Tom Langdon (knee) 6-8 weeks, Darcy Moore (fractured collarbone) test, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Brayden Sier (wrist) 1-2 weeks, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season.

Rd 15: COL 8.9 (57) def CAR 6.9 (45) @ MCG Best: Pendlebury, Grundy, Reid, Goldsack, Sidebottom, Moore. Goals: Grundy 2, Blair 2, Moore, Pendlebury, Greenwood, Aish. Injuries: Nil.

6-8 (11th)

Heading into round 16 the injury list was Taylor Adams (hamstring) test, Ben Crocker (knee tendinitis) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (fractured scapula) test, Tom Langdon (knee) 5-7 weeks, Jonathon Marsh (calf) test, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Brayden Sier (wrist) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Alan Toovey (concussion) test.

Rd 16: COL 19.11 (125) def GWS 14.9 (93) @ SPO Best: Grundy, Adams, Cloke, Sidebottom, Treloar, Howe, Pendlebury. Goals: Cloke 4, White 3, Blair 2, Fasolo 2, Varcoe, Aish, Adams, Smith, Macaffer, Sinclair, Sidebottom. Injuries: Fasolo (shoulder).

7-8 (11th)

Heading into round 17 the injury list was Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (fractured scapula) test, Tom Langdon (knee) 4-6 weeks, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Brayden Sier (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season.

Rd 17: ADE 14.13 (97) def COL 10.9 (69) @ AO Best: Grundy, Pendlebury, Treloar, Sinclair, Crisp. Goals: Greenwood 2, Crisp 2, Cloke 2, Varcoe, Moore, Adams, Aish. Injuries: Nil.

7-9 (12th)

Heading into round 18 the injury list was Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (shoulder) test, Tom Langdon (knee) 4-6 weeks, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Brayden Sier (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Jarrod Witts (dislocated finger) test.

Rd 18: NM 18.16 (124) def COL 12.12 (84) @ ES Best: Sidebottom, Adams, Grundy, Pendlebury, Treloar (and Wells BOG for NM!). Goals: Blair 2, Moore 2, Greenwood 2, White 2, Sidebottom 2, Pendlebury, Fasolo. Injuries: Sinclair (concussion).

7-10 (12th)

Heading into round 19 the injury list was Jarryd Blair (groin) TBC, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (shoulder) TBC, Tom Langdon (knee) 4-6 weeks, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Brayden Sier (back) test, Ben Sinclair (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Jarrod Witts (dislocated finger) test.

Rd19: COL 13.13 (91) def WCE 11.6 (72) @ MCG Best: Adams, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Moore, Smith, Aish. Goals: Moore 3, Aish 2, Sidebottom 2, Cloke, White, Greenwood, Crisp, Treloar, Maynard. Injuries: Moore (hamstring).

8-10 (12th)

Heading into round 20 the injury list was Jarryd Blair (groin) test, Tim Broomhead (shoulder) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (shoulder) test, Matthew Goodyear (illness) test, Tom Langdon (knee) season, Darcy Moore (hamstring) 1 week, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Brayden Sier (back) test, Ben Sinclair (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season, Jarrod Witts (dislocated finger) test.

Rd 20: RIC 14.8 (92) def COL 11.11 (77) @ MCG Best: Crisp, Sidebottom, Aish, Adams, Grundy, Howe. Goals: Cox 2, Aish 2, Adams, Cloke, Crocker, Varcoe, Wills, Pendlebury, White. Injuries: Cox (shoulder), Pendlebury (left ankle).

8-11 (12th)

Heading into round 21 the injury list was Tim Broomhead (shoulder) season, Mason Cox (shoulder) TBC, Ben Crocker (concussion) TBC, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (shoulder) season, Tom Langdon (knee) season, Darcy Moore (hamstring) test, Scott Pendlebury (foot) test, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Ben Reid (knee) TBC, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Brayden Sier (back) 1-3 weeks, Ben Sinclair (concussion) test, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season.

Rd 21: WBD 14.11 (95) def COL 14.8 (92) @ ES Best: Treloar, Sidebottom, Aish, Moore, Goldsack, Grundy. Goals: Moore 3, Sidebottom 2, De Goey 2, Oxley 2, Treloar, White, Phillips, Greenwood, Maynard. Injuries: Adams (corked calf), Moore (cut eye).

8-12 (12th)

Heading into round 22 the injury list was Taylor Adams (ankle) season, Tim Broomhead (shoulder) season, Mason Cox (shoulder) test, Ben Crocker (concussion) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (shoulder) season, Tom Langdon (knee) season, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Ben Reid (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Brayden Sier (back) test, Ben Sinclair (concussion) season, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season.

Rd 22: COL 16.22 (118) def GCS 6.11 (47) @ ES Best: Grundy, White, Treloar, Crisp, Howe, Pendlebury, Smith, De Goey. Goals: White 3, DE Goey 3, Crisp 2, Greenwood 2, Treloar, Smith, Crocker, Sidebottom, Phillips, Pendlebury. Injuries: Goldsack (foot) replaced in selected side by Williams, Moore (hamstring), De Goey (right foot).

9-12 (12th)

Heading into the final round the injury list was Taylor Adams (ankle) season, Tim Broomhead (shoulder) season, Jordan De Goey (ankle) test, Jamie Elliott (back ) season, Alex Fasolo (shoulder) season, Tyson Goldsack (foot) test, Tom Langdon (knee) season, Darcy Moore (hamstring) season, Jackson Ramsay (knee) season, Ben Reid (knee) season, Matt Scharenberg (knee) season, Brayden Sier (back) 1-2 weeks, Ben Sinclair (concussion) season, Dane Swan (broken leg and foot) season.

Rd 23: HAW 17.10 (112) def COL 17.9 (111) @ MCG Best: Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Treloar, Grundy, Crocker, Phillips, Howe. Goals: Crocker 3, De Goey 2, White 2, Greenwood 2, Blair 2, Treloar 2, Cloke 2, Goldsack, Grundy. Injuries: Aish (hamstring).

9-13 (12th) and so endeth the season.

A Few Comments on AFLPRPs

I tracked these during the season from the twitter feed by AFL Player Ratings.

Rd1: 182 L
Rd2: 205 W
Rd3: 241 L
Rd4: 240 L
Rd5: 317 W
Rd6: 171 L
Rd7: 190 L
Rd8: 249 W
Rd9: 220 W
Rd10: 187 L
Rd11: 198 L
Rd12: 194 L
Rd14: 225 W
Rd15: 189 W
Rd16: 255 W
Rd17: 214 L
Rd18: 214 L
Rd19: 228 W
Rd20: 171 L
Rd21: 249 L
Rd22: 238 W
Rd23: 230 L

There exceptions, but as a rough rule of thumb we are likely to lose if AFLPRPs are below about 220 and we are likely to win if AFLPRPs are above about 220. This threshold conveniently averages out to 10 AFLPRPs per player in a team of 22.

One way of looking at it is that we need to build a team which consistently produces AFLPRPs above 220 and probably closer to 240 to win consistently.

From what I have seen, an exceptional game by a player would earn 30, a very good game 20, a good game 15 and an average game around 10.

Anyway, not sure how useful all that is, but maybe keep it in mind when looking at the player reviews below.

2016 E.W. Copeland Trophy Top Ten:

1. Scott Pendlebury, 164 votes (E.W. Copeland Trophy)
2. Adam Treloar, 145 (R.T. Rush Trophy)
3. Steele Sidebottom, 115 (J.J. Joyce Trophy)
4. Brodie Grundy, 100 (J.F. McHale Trophy)
5. Jeremy Howe, 81 (Jack Regan Trophy)
6. Taylor Adams, 79
7. Josh Smith, 78
8. Levi Greenwood, 73
9. Jack Crisp, 66
10. Jarryd Blair, 60

Other Awards:

Darren Millane Memorial Trophy (Best Clubman): Brent Macaffer

Harry Collier Trophy (Best First Year Player): Josh Smith

Gavin Brown Award (Players’ Player): Scott Pendlebury

Gordon Coventry Award (Leading Goal Kicker): Alex Fasolo (25 goals)

Joseph Wren Trophy (VFL Best & Fairest): Brent Macaffer

Phonse Kyne Award (Services to the Club): Neil Price

Player Availability and Injuries

Champion data had us ranked as the fourth-most affected team b injuries in 2016: http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/the-real-and-surprising-cost-of-injuries-in-2016-remarkable-numbers-behind-western-bulldogs-flag/news-story/52cdac4a138c47bff1638ed75343c0c8

COSTLIEST INJURED PLAYERS
Player — Total Points Lost Without Player — Points Lost Per Game
Nat Fyfe — 198.9 (11.7)
Jarryd Roughead — 165.6 (6.9)
Dayne Beams — 148 (7.4)
Harley Bennell — 145.2 (6.6)
Aaron Sandilands — 128 (Cool
Robert Murphy — 103.5 (4.5)
Dane Swan — 88 (4.4)
Brett Deledio — 85.8 (7.Cool
Jamie Elliot — 78.5 (3.6)

2016 AFL INJURY LADDER
(Total cost in terms of Ranking Points)
1 — Fremantle (689)
2 — Western Bulldogs (428)
3 — Brisbane (419)
4 — Collingwood (417)
5 — Hawthorn (362)
6 — Gold Coast (335)
7 — Richmond (328)
8 — North Melbourne (304)
9 — Port Adelaide (291)
10 — GWS (288)
11 — Geelong (258)
12 — Sydney (210)
13 — West Coast (181)
14 — Carlton (180)
15 — Essendon (179)
16 — St Kilda (123)
17 — Melbourne (103)
18 — Adelaide (91)

The analysis below won't be very scientific because I don't have easy access to the statistics I'd like.

What I thought I would do instead is list some of our players and note the number of games they played (out of a possible 22 games):

The good ...

Treloar 22
Pendlebury 22 (appeared to play injured at times and it was speculated he played with broken ribs at some stage)
Crisp 22
Grundy 21
Greenwood 21
Blair 21
Sidebottom 20 (missed 2 through suspension)
Howe 20 (a broken finger pre-season from playing Frisbee with his dog delayed Howe's preparation and entry into the team)
De Goey 20
Maynard 20
Smith 18
Reid 17 (had a few injury issues with knees and shoulders during the season, but didn't fall over dead as expected by some)
Varcoe 17 (had three hamstring injuries by my count in rounds 1, 5 and 8 ... a bit of a concern longer term?)
Moore 17
White 16
Brown 16
Aish 15
Adams 15
Cloke 13
Oxley 12
Cox 11
Marsh 10
Frost 10
Crocker 10
Toovey 8
Phillips 6
Wills 5
Goodyear 2
Witts 2
Gault 2

The bad ...

Goldsack 4 (Fractured a thumb in round 5 and struggled to cement a spot in the senior team (much to my surprise)).

Langdon 5 (An ankle injury in round 6 and then a long term knee injury saw him miss most of the season.)

Williams 11 (did minor knee in round one, a foot (toe?) injury in round 3 missing several weeks)

Fasolo 12 (A shoulder injury (fractured scapula?) in round 10 curtailed what appeared to be a breakout year for the showman. He returned in round 16 only to injure his shoulder again which ultimately ended his season. Still won the goalkicking with 25 from 12 games.)

Sinclair 13 (Four (I think) head knocks/concussions so a real health concern for Ben and issue as to whether we can get him on the park regularly I would have thought.)

The ugly ...

Elliott 0 (I think pre-season we all expected he would get on the park at some stage, so probably along with Swan the biggest disappointment injury-wise).

Scharenberg 0 (ACL#2 in November 2015).

Swan 1 (all 60 seconds of the first game - what a horrible injury and terrible way to finish his great career).

Broomhead 2 (injured arm in NAB1, injured shoulder in round 1, injured ankle in round 7 (~7 weeks), injured shoulder in round 19 and missed the rest of the season).

Ramsay 2 (ACL in April 2016).

Potentially 6 best 22 players (including Langdon) who essentially missed the entire season plus Fasolo who missed half a season, so a massive scope for improvement if we can get them (besides the retired Swan) on the park in 2017.

Player Reviews

2017 AFL Prospectus info has now been added in red.

Taylor Adams - 6th in the Copeland. Rated Average and on the up in the 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 13.4 AFL PLayer Ranking Points (AFPRP) in 2016 so may move up into the Above Average category. Will be a mainstay of our inside midfield group for many years to come. Class: Above Average, Ranking 5th (97th), Relative Rating +24%.

James Aish - Rated Poor and on the up in the 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 10.4 AFLPRP in 2016 so may move up into the Average category. Has plenty of upside still and started to show he believed in himself at AFL level. I was a doubter before the season, but I think he showed enough to suggest we have a keeper. Class: Below Average, Ranking 21st (341st), Relative Rating +3%.

Jarryd Blair - 10th in the Copeland. Rated Above Average in the 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 8.6 AFLPRP in 2016 which will probably see him move down into the Average category. Class: Average, Ranking 9th (193rd), Relative Rating -13%.

Tim Broomhead - See injury commentary. Rated Average in the 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged only about 6.0 AFLPRP in his 2 games in 2016 which will probably see him move down into the Below Average category. Needs to get an injury-free run so we can see what he is capable of - has only 8, 11 and 2 games in his 3 years in the system. Class: Average, Ranking 32nd (490th).

Mason Cox (Cat B rookie) - Averaged 8.4 AFLPRP in his 11 games. Will never look "pretty", but I think he can create headaches for opposition backlines and give our crumbers (we'll get to that) plenty of opportunities. We need a forward/ruck to pair with Grundy and it appears that either Cox or White is the man. Class: Rookie, Relative Rating -15%.

Jack Crisp - 9th in the Copeland. Rated Average in the 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 11.7 AFLPRP which should see him maintain that rating. personally, I thought he had a slightly off year (compared to 2015) and I was a little surprised to see him place 9th in the Copeland, but he does seem to avoid injury and get on the park. Class: Average, Ranking 4th (85th), Relative Rating +4%.

Ben Crocker - Snuck in for 10 games (10 goals), but I reckon he only really performed in 4 of those games. Best game was against Hawthorn in round 23. He is a youngster with plenty to prove (we all know the story of him being the last pick in the draft) and I have seen enough signs to remain hopeful. He has a bit "mongrel" on the field which I think we need - from memory in a VFL game he rag-dolled his brother after kicking a goal. Class: Poor, Ranking 36th (592nd), Relative Rating -28%.

Jordan De Goey - Rated Poor and on the up in the 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 9.0 AFPRP in 2016 so should move up and possibly into the Average category. Needs to work on his consistency I would think ... too big a gap between his best and worst games, but clearly has talent. Class: Average, Ranking 13th (234th), Relative Rating +5%.

Lynden Dunn - We will be hoping to see the 2015 version of Dunn as he was starved of opportunities at Melbourne in 2016 despite performing well in the VFL. Was rated Above Average in the 2016 AFL Prospectus. Time will tell, but this could be a bargain basement acquisition which produces results. Class: Average, Ranking 14th (308th).

Jamie Elliott - DNP. See injury commentary and update in Pre-Season Snippets. Rated Above Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus. Is an Elite player when fit in my view. Class: Above Average, Ranking 24th (363rd).

Alex Fasolo - See injury commentary. Rated Above Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 12.9 AFLPRP in his limited games. Early on he was clearly our #1 goalkicker. Some described 2016 as a "breakout" year, but he has actually performed much better than that suggests over the course of his career. Has the potential to be an Elite player and kick more than 50 goals I believe. Class: Above Average, Ranking 8th (175th), Relative Rating +33%.

Tyson Goldsack - Rated Above Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 9.0 AFLPRP in his four games. Struggled to get a good run at it. I believe (particularly with the loss of Cloke, Brown, Frost and Marsh) that Goldsack is a valuable part of out set up as a flexible backman who can take the kickouts and swing forward occasionally or even allow Reid, Howe or Dunn to swing forward at times. Would not surprise me to see him as our full back. Class: Above Average, Ranking 27th (409th).

Levi Greenwood - 8th in the Copeland. Rated Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 9.5 AFLPRP. I was surprised doing the game summaries how many times he popped up in the goalkickers. I'm not seeing him in many best 22s, but his 2016 stats make a fair case on his behalf. I wonder whether he and Mayne will essentially be competing for the same defensive forward spot or whether we will seek to use Greenwood as an inside mid or tagger. Class: Average, Ranking 16th (271st), Relative Rating -17%.

Brodie Grundy - 4th in the Copeland. Rated Average and on the up in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 11.4 AFLPRP. Seems to love the main ruck role and really had great second half of the season. I can see him becoming the best all-round ruckman in the league with his ability to follow up. Would love to see him improve a bit as a resting ruck forward. Class: Above Average, Ranking 6th (102nd), Relative Rating +32%.

Will Hoskin-Elliott - Rated Below Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and managed only 2 games for GWS in 2016, having played 11, 20, 9 and 10 the previous 4 years. Not really sure what to expect from him, but if we end up with another "Aish" I would be happy. Class: Poor, Ranking 31st (593rd).

Jeremy Howe - 5th in the Copeland. Rated Above Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus (as a defender) and averaged about 12.3 AFLPRP in 2016 which should keep him in that category. We acquired him (as I understandit, on a promise) to play wing/forward, but soon discovered his value was greatest playing back. To his great credit he just did the team thing and was happy to play back. Has the flexibility to swing forward. Class: Above Average, Ranking 7th (131st), Relative Rating +28%.

Lachlan Keeffe - Returns to training in early December. The club must be fairly confident on his fitness after 2 seasons out, having already promoted him to the primary list. 204cm/100kg players don't grow on trees I guess. He had only just established himself back in 2014 so I hope the club is not expecting too much from him in 2017. I will be watching with keen interest when intra-club and XYZ Challenge games start. I do remember back in 2014 Keeffe was described as one of the best kicks at the club and we could do with some better kicking.

Tom Langdon - Rated Above Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 11.0 AFLPRP in his 5 games in 2016, but his season was cruelled by injuries (see injury commentary). A terrible haircut there at one stage, but a possible future captain I reckon. Dare I say it, but he reminds me a bit of Nick Maxwell. Class: Above Average, Ranking 14th (239th), Relative Rating +32%.

Brayden Maynard - Averaged about 10.2 AFLPRP in his 20 games in 2016. This should see him move up to the Average category. Not sure he is definite best 22 at this stage, but no doubt that has been in mind for the future as he was blooded in 2015/2016 and now has 29 games under his belt. I don't have the stats, but he seemed to make fewer mistakes under pressure in 2016. Class: Below Average, Ranking 26th (377th), Relative Rating +9%.

Chris Mayne - Rated Above Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus. A defensive forward - one of the questions that comes to mind is who makes way for him (Blair 10th in Copeland), Greenwood (8th in Copeland) or someone else? Class: Average, Ranking 9th (209th), Relative Rating -16%.

Darcy Moore - Averaged 6.9 AFLPRP in 2016. He definitely looks a future star, can take a grab and kick a goal, but he will need to work on his consistency and output if he is to become the true star we are all hoping. Hopefully the hamstring issues late in the season are a one-off issue and do not recur. Class: Below Average, Ranking 25th (370th), Relative Rating +3%.

Adam Oxley - Rated Below Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged 8.4 AFLPRP in 2016. His performances were inconsistent going from brilliant early (rounds 3 and 4 with 22 and 21 AFLPRP respectively) and then dropping off significantly. I have an inkling that Oxley may benefit if we can win and keep the ball more often and use him as a free running goal kicking wingman, but there are no doubt a few who could benefit from that. Class: Average, Ranking 17th (287th), Relative Rating -2%.

Scott Pendlebury - 1st in the Copeland. Rated as our only Elite player in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged 17.6 AFLPRP in 2016. I thought it was not his best season and he seemed to be playing sore a fair bit. No doubt he is our best player but I'm thinking now in terms of longevity and wonder if we need to protect him somewhat and look to play him either forward or more outside to avoid the crash and bash inside. Class: Elite, Ranking 1st (4th), Relative Rating +49%.

Tom Phillips - I can't say Phillips stood out to me at AFL or VFL level. Hopefully another pre-season under his belt and he can show us what he can offer. Class: ?, Ranking 37th (611th), Relative Rating -23%.

Jackson Ramsay - Go back and read my 2016 preview re Ramsay. This kid is a best 22 lock if he can stay fit. I was absolutely devastated for him when he did his ACL early. Class: ?, Ranking 34th (567th).

Ben Reid - Got through the season with (relatively) few injury issues and showed he is capable of returning to All Australian form. With the loss of key big men his role will be even more important in 2017. I really like Reid and Howe (and maybe now Dunn and Goldsack) as the intercept half backs who can then set up play moving forward. Class: Average, Ranking 22nd (348th), Relative Rating +0%.

Matt Scharenberg - DNP. See injury commentary. Class: ?, Ranking 40th (682nd).

Steele Sidebottom - 3rd in the Copeland. Rated Above Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 13.8 AFLPRP which should keep him there. A gut runner who may be needed forward if we can't get the likes of Elliott and Fasolo on the park regularly. Class: Above Average, Ranking 3rd (49th), Relative Rating +21%.

Brayden Sier - odd run of injuries in 2016. Didn't stand out when I watched VFL.

Ben Sinclair - Rated Below Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 9.3 AFLPRP in 2016 which may move him up to Average. See injury commentary. Class: Average, Ranking 28th (419th), Relative Rating +2%.

Josh Smith - 7th in the Copeland. Has earned promotion to the primary list playing 18 games in 2016 averaging 7.1 AFLPRP. Buckley commented at some point during the season (when frustrated with the team) that Smith was one of the few following positional instructions. Class: Below Average, Ranking 29th (468th), Relative Rating -14%.

Josh Thomas (Cat A rookie) - Presumably there for depth as I would imagine he is a way down the pecking order.

Adam Treloar - 2nd in the Copeland. Rated Above Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 15.8 AFLPRP which may see him move into the Elite category. Still plenty of upside with Treloar and it is fun watching he and Pendlebury link up through the midfield. Class: Elite, Ranking 2nd (18th), Relative Rating +42%.

Travis Varcoe - Rated Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 7.4 AFLPRP which may see him fall. Had a few hamstring issues in 2016 and given his age that always raises a few concerns going forward. Class: Average, Ranking 11th (199th), Relative Rating -24%.

Daniel Wells - Rated Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and was BOG against us in 2016. He is a talent (albeit an older one) and if we can get him on the park in 2017 he will make us better. Class: Above Average, Ranking 18th (280th), Relative Rating +8%.

Jesse White - Rated Average in 2016 AFL Prospectus and averaged about 9.8 AFLPRP in 2016. Much-maligned, but I think he improved in 2015 and then again in 2016. He also brings much-needed flexibility. In the VFL and briefly in the AFL he looked as though he may be more suited down back. Class: Above Average, Ranking 10th (194th), Relative Rating -2%.

Rupert Wills - Averaged about 12.0 AFLPRP in five games in 2016. There's a lot to like about this guy. He didn't stand out to me in 2015 VFL, but he apparently had a big growth spurt somewhere along the line. I can see him as a 10 year player (fingers crossed). Class: ?, Ranking 35th (578th), Relative Rating +14%.

AFLPRPs sourced from AFL Player Ratings twitter feed during course of the season.

2017 (Champion Data) Prospectus Update

AFL Player Rankings (based on AFL Player Rating Points):

Champion Data make this claim on page 21 of the 2017 Prospectus: "The feedback we have received from clubs is that it is the best objective measurement of each list in the competition." A new measure - Relative Ratings - takes into account how a player is performing relative to others in his position at the same age, compared to all other players from 2010 onwards.

Elite (top 10% of position): Pendlebury, Treloar.
Above Average (top 35% of position): Fasolo, Langdon, Grundy, Howe, Adams, Sidebottom, Wells, White, Goldsack, Elliott.
Average (middle 30% of position): De Goey, Crisp, Sinclair, Reid, Oxley, Blair, Mayne, Greenwood, Varcoe, Dunn, Broomhead.

Of the others (Below Average, Poor, ? and Rookie List), Wills has a Relative Rating (RR) of +14%, Maynard, +9%, Moore +3%, Aish +3%, Smith -14%, Cox -15%, Phillips -23% and Schade -35%. If not mentioned then no RR is given.

List Management

We had 39 players on the primary list in 2016 and we removed 10:

Swan (retired) 258 games
Toovey (retired) 159 games
Macaffer (retired) 77 games
Goodyear (delisted) 2 games
Brown (FA to STK) 130 games
Witts (traded to GCS) 40 games
Cloke (traded to WBD) 246 games
Frost (traded to BRI) 54 games
Williams (traded to NM) 68 games
Marsh (retired) 15 games

Total games experience lost: 1,049 (which averages out at 105 games each over 10 players).

That left us with 29 players. We upgraded Smith and Keeffe from the rookie list and added four recruits:

Wells (FA) 243 games
Mayne (FA) 172 games
Hoskin-Elliott (trade with GWS) 52 games
Dunn (trade with MEL) 165 games

Total games experience added: 632 (which averages out at 158 games each over 4 players).

Net games experience lost: 417. The trade period was clearly used, at least in part, to address the loss of experience.

We are left with 35 primary listed players and one rookie list (Category A) player in Thomas and one rookie list (Category B) player in Cox.

National Draft 25/11/16

Keefe and Smith have already been upgraded from the rookie list to the primary list. We take picks 28 (677 DVI points), 44 (362 DVI points), 51 (259 DVI points), 61 (135 DVI points) and 64 (101 DVI points) to the draft on Friday night and (I expect) hope to get a draftee at 28 and match bids on Brown (FS) and Daicos (FS) with subsequent picks and maybe a get a “Hine special” further down.

The rules for bidding are set out here: http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

One (potentially significant) change not reflected in that document (but reported by AFL Draft reporter Cal Twomey) is that any points deficit carried forward to the following year will come off the relevant pick in the round that the bid is made (so not necessarily the first round pick). We probably have sufficient points to cover bids on Brown and Daicos now, but that wasn't always clearly going to be the case during trade period.

I'll start with likely father/sons Callum Brown and Josh Daicos. Footy Prophet reviewed the 2016 father/son class: http://footyprophet.com/class-2016-afl-bloodlines/

Callum Brown draft profile from ZeroHanger: http://www.zerohanger.com/2016-afl-draft-prospects-callum-brown-8636/

Josh Daicos draft profile from ZeroHanger: http://www.zerohanger.com/2016-afl-draft-prospects-josh-daicos-8001/

Pick 30 - Sam McLarty

Courtesy of Jezza: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81419

Pick 35 - Gavin Brown (nominated F/S matched NM bid)

Courtesy of Jezza (second post): http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81420

Pick 50 - Kyle Kirby

Courtesy of Jezza: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81421

Pick 57 - Josh Daicos (nominated F/S)

Courtesy of Jezza: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81422

Leaves us with a primary list of 39 heading into the final free agent period. And we head into Monday's rookie draft with only the one rookie list player (Josh Thomas).

Draft recap courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-26/hines-ultimate-draft-recap

Rookie Draft 28/11/16

Jonty Scharenberg and Kym Lebois seem to be the main sliders from the National Draft, but I suspect we will focus more on mature-agers who can provide immediate depth (in case of injury) in ruck and key position slots.

Pick 7 - Mitch McCarthy 196-198cm 94kg

From afl.com: The athletic, high-leaping former basketballer, who until 2015 pursued a scholarship in America, appeals for his massive upside as a strong-marking key defender/ruckman. The over-age Dandenong Stingray product suffered a season-ending navicular stress fracture in his foot, which prevented him from testing at the 2016 NAB AFL Draft Combine, but he is tracking well in his recovery.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/why-draft-prospect-mitch-mccarthy-chose-football-20161006-grwovg.html

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/localfooty/mpnfl/athletic-mitch-mccarthy-one-of-four-dandenong-stingrays-to-attend-afl-draft-combine/news-story/fcf9247d3120ab21d71b1b17bca95106

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=II7mD8ryn0w

http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81432

Pick 24 - Henry Schade 197cm 89kg

ex GCS. From GCS website: It may have taken Henry Schade longer than any other Suns player to earn a debut, but he proved to be well worth the wait, quickly becoming a permanent fixture in Rodney Eade’s back six.

After debuting in round five’s QClash, Schade went on to play 15 of the final 18 games in a defensive key post. On occasion, when Steven May and Rory Thompson were missing, Schade would take the opposition’s best forward. And whilst the lessons were sometimes grave, 2015 was a massive development year for Schade.

Positioned alongside May for the back end of the year the Tasmanian grew in confidence, becoming a key component of Gold Coast’s defensive setup.

http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81433

Pick 40 - Liam Mackie 186cm 73kg

http://www.sanfl.com.au/maccas_cup/draft_hub/liam_mackie/

http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81435

Pick 51 - Max Lynch 200cm 96kg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YhIMJ3BpyA

http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81434

Rookie draft recap courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/2016-11-28/our-ultimate-rookie-draft-review

List profile

Here's the list courtesy of Footywire: http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/tp-collingwood-magpies

>200 games 2 (Wells, Pendlebury)
151-200 games 4 (Varcoe, Mayne, Dunn, Sidebottom)
101-150 games 7 (Blair, Goldsack, White, Reid, Howe, Greenwood, Treloar)
51-100 games 7 (Fasolo, Adams, Elliott, Sinclair Crisp, Grundy, Hoskin-Ellliott)
26-50 games 8 (inc Aish, Langdon, Keeffe, De Goey)
<26 games 17

17 players on our primary and rookie lists who have fewer than 25 games' experience and 8 of those are yet to debut.

One concern I have when I go through the profile above is that a lot of the players with more experience are players I would describe as "competing for a spot" in the best 22 rather than being established certain best 22 players. In addition, several have recent injury history which at the very least raises a question mark over how often we will see them on the park.

It will be interesting to see how experienced our selected 22s are in 2017. I suspect we will still be relatively inexperienced compared to most oppositions.

On the plus side we have got games into players early so on a games-for-age basis we are looking good, but that probably helps down the track rather than in 2017

Pre-season Snippets

First Training 7/11/16 courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-07/elliott-trains-on-day-one and gallery: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-07/gallery-back-to-school-for-young-pies

Falls Creek 13/11/16 courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-13/pies-take-flight-to-falls-creek

Falls Creek 14/11/16 courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-14/the-first-photos-from-falls-creek and gallery: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-14/photos-working-up-a-sweat

Falls Creek 15/11/16 courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-15/photos-magpies-box-on and more: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-15/photos-out-come-the-sherrins

Falls Creek 16/11/16 courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-16/photos-heavy-lifting-in-falls and more: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-16/photos-running-the-mountain

Update on Jamie Elliott courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-16/pies-taking-it-slow-with-returning-star-jamie-elliott-2016

Falls Creek 17/11/16 courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-17/magpie-brodie-grundy-stands-tall-during-preseason-camp and gallery: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-17/photos-a-day-in-the-life

Training report 21/11/16 courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-21/recruits-train-for-the-first-time

Training report 23/11/16 courtesy of BucksIsFutureCoach: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81405 (I assume the author is a fan of Ayce or Jett). now merged into this thread: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81353

Training report 28/11/16 from Mazzarjo @ BigFooty: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/training-report-no-1-2016-17.1153261/

2km Time Trial 30/11/16 courtesy of Herald Sun: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/collingwood/tom-phillips-has-edged-steele-sidebottom-in-collingwoods-preseason-time-trial/news-story/6ef78f1d4906c82325b79c816ab9f02b

And courtesy of the club: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-11-30/phillips-takes-home-the-time-trial

Reading between the lines ...

1st Phillips
2nd Sidebottom
3rd Smith
4th Greenwood
5th Varcoe

Training report 8/12/16: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-12-08/unlucky-trio-back-in-full-training-2016

Training report 14/12/16 courtesy of Stoods @ Bigfooty: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/training-14-12-16.1154570/

Open training report 19/12/16: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2016-12-19/an-eventful-day-on-the-track

Herald Sun pump up Callum Brown: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/collingwood/callum-brown-puts-his-hand-up-for-round-1-after-impressing-in-preseason-training/news-story/1f9f0ac18cdde0e9438e3cb1840362d0

PRE-XMAS INJURY STATUS:

Maynard (knee/leg - left track early 19/12/16)
Wells (calf - modified program)
Reid (recovering from knee surgery - training indoors)
Sier (? - run throughs separate from main group)
Mitch McCarthy (recovering from navicular stress fracture - run throughs separate from main group)

Training report 6/1/17: 2km time trial: 1st Phillips, 2nd Greenwood, 3rd Sidebottom and then daylight. Grundy impressive. Elliott and Fasolo training. Wells restricted program still. Reid and Sier continued to run laps, along with defender Tom Langdon, on-baller Ben Crocker, draftee Sam McLarty and rookie Mitch McCarthy. Per 2 Herald Sun articles:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/brodie-grundy-impresses-at-collingwood-open-training-session-daniel-wells-on-light-duties/news-story/c56d30dc44cd289b525fa2f3b1fd2198

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/collingwood/jamie-elliott-completes-collingwood-training-session-but-daniel-wells-restricted-to-running-drills/news-story/1332e8e3096876e9a2d37114822a6568

Training report 9/1/17 courtesy of Mazzarjo @ Bigfooty: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/training-report-no-2-monday-january-9-2017.1155934/

Training report 11/1/17 courtesy of warburton lad: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81555

Match Simulation/Training report 16/1/17: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-01-16/forgotten-magpies-prominent-in-match-practice-outing

From the above - Fasolo spent time in defence! Goldsack in the last line of defence. Pendlebury and Treloar prominent. Mayne and Wells did not play.

Training report 18/1/17 courtesy of Mazzarjo @ Bigfooty: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/training-report-no-3-wednesday-january-18-2017.1156373/

Training report 23/1/17 courtesy of Schupie @ Bigfooty posted as a reply on page 4 of thread.

Training rport 25/1/17 courtesy of Ben Guthrie @ afl.com.au: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-01-25/giant-pie-lachie-keeffe-impresses-in-forward-trial

Training report 25/1/17 courtesy of BucksIsFutureCoach posted as a reply on page 4 of thread.

Training report 25/1/17 courtesy of Bigfooty contributors: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/open-training-25-1-2017.1156714/

Callum Brown glandular fever!: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-01-30/young-magpie-sidelined-by-illness

Intra-club 8/2/17: see below.

Injury update 9/2/17 courtesy of Peter Ryan at this link: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-02-09/injury-list-whos-stuck-in-the-medical-room-at-your-club

Tim Broomhead (shoulder, one week): Unlikely to play in the forthcoming intraclub but should be available for selection in the first game of the JLT Community Series.

Tom Langdon (back, TBC): A frustrating period for Langdon as he begins to build his fitness following a back injury. The Magpie defender is progressing slowly but steadily.

Callum Brown (glandular fever, 4 weeks): Although the initial prognosis was that Brown would be out for "a few weeks", the Magpies will be guided by his recovery rather than any timeline. He will then have to rebuild his fitness base with the opening of the VFL season in April more a target than the opening of the AFL season.

Sam McLarty (shoulder, 4-6 weeks): Collingwood's first pick in the NAB AFL Draft is being given time to get his shoulder in shape to cope with the demands of full training and games. His sights will be set on making a start early in the VFL season.

Brayden Sier (back, 4-6 weeks): Another player who won't return to full training until the medical staff are confident he will sustain a comeback after battling back issues.

Others
Ben Reid has recovered from his knee operation but is likely to sit out the intraclub game while Jamie Elliott (back), Matt Scharenberg (knee) and Jackson Ramsay (knee) are raring to go after spending last year on the sidelines. Ramsay showed his promise in two strong games before the knee buckled. Ben Crocker (hip) is fine while Mitch McCarthy (navicular) is back in full training.

15/2/17: Update re Reid, Wells, Thomas and Oxley in VFL practice match vs Vermont:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-02-16/preparations-ramp-up-for-important-magpies-duo-ben-reid-and-daniel-wells

16/2/17: Update re Wells (injury): http://www.3aw.com.au/news/daniel-wells-suffers-another-injury-setback-battling-to-be-fit-for-round-1-20170216-gueuzr.html

16/2/17: Buckley in post-game presser [re: Wells]: "He's good ... we didn't take any risks and pulled him after two quarters ... he will train this week".

Coaching Panel

Nathan Buckley (senior coach)

Brenton Sanderson (forward line and ball movement)

Robert Harvey (backline)

Scott Burns (midfield)

Anthony Rocca (defensive development/key position development)

Tarkyn Lockyer (midfield development)

Jared Rivers (VFL coach)

Brad Gotch (Academy coach)

2017 Fixture

Intra-Club Game, JLT Community Series, VFL Pre-Season and AFL Early Rounds [Day references are from AFL Round 1 game]:

[Day -46] 6:30PM EDT Wednesday, 8 February Intra-Club Scratch Match: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-01-17/february-intraclub-locked-in

[NOTE only three quarters played due to hot weather.]

Teams (initial ones anyway, as players did swap): http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-02-08/teams-named-for-piesintra

First Quarter video: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/2017-02-08/piesintra-1st-quarter

Quarter-time update: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-02-08/piesintra-quartertime-update

Second quarter video: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/2017-02-08/piesintra-2nd-quarter

Half-time update: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-02-08/piesintra-a-half-time-report

Third quarter video: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/2017-02-08/piesintra-3rd-quarter

All unscathed: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-02-08/all-clear-in-encouraging-intra-club

Complete Summary: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-02-08/piesintra-a-complete-summary

Coaches' report: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-02-08/coaches-report-intraclub

Photos: http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-02-08/gallery-the-best-intraclub-photos

Herald Sun report: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/collingwood/jamie-elliott-josh-daicos-matt-scharenberg-impress-in-collingwood-intraclub-match/news-story/a38c54655136214240b69451d736a43d

Nicksters comments: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=81658

Bigfooty comments: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2017-collingwood-intra-club.1157595/

[Day-38] JLT MATCH 1
Thursday, 16 February
Collingwood vs Essendon
Etihad Stadium
19:40 EDT

Match Centre: http://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/jlt-community-series/2017/1/coll-v-ess

Match report: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-02-16/match-report-pies-late-show-spoils-returning-dons-night

Game Style

Q1-3 I thought our ball movement was stilted and we tended to over-use the ball at times. Transition into the F50 and efficiency inside F50 was poor. There was a marked turnaround in Q4 which is what I think we would all like to see (not sure how much can be read into it as may have been the result of a Bombers fade-out with so many players returning from a long lay-off). Overall disposal efficiency of 74% was solid, but efficiency inside F50 was only 56% (28 shots from 50 I50s). With no obvious bulky key forward, I expected to see us push forwards high up the ground and run back into the scoring zone (à la “Pagan’s paddock”) and the mobile big men we have in Moore and White seem suited to this along with our smaller brigade.
We won clearances (an excellent effort given our outs), but we were out-tackled which I don’t like. There was one superb tackle in our forward line by a speedy WHE (I think).

Essendon ran and handballed more than us … I had expected us to have more rum and handball based on what I had read of training reports (we had 182 kicks vs 136 handballs, compare Essendon 161/164).
Spread of goalkickers to be expected.

My main criticism would be the risk/reward decision making at times … there was one passage of play in Q1 where we had 10 or so dinky kicks and moved the ball all of about 10 metres and there were several Essendon players in the vicinity of the target – one mistake and it was a turnover goal. The chance of that mistake happening gets multiplied when there are so many dinky kicks. I’d like to see more run and dare and fast ball movement – greater reward for the risk.

Player Comments

Aish – seemed to coast a bit and butchered the ball at times (DE 69%).
Blair – 5 clearances and 17 disposals at 76%. Solid.

Cox – played 87% game time and didn’t look to struggle fitness-wise as much as he did at times last season. That’s a good sign. Took a nice mark and we need him breaking packs in marking contests. DE of 37% is a bit of a concern.

Crisp – 17 disposals at 82% with 7 clearances and 5 tackles. Solid.

Daicos – limited game time (41%) and didn’t do anything to suggest to me he won’t start in the VFL.

De Goey – superb Q4. 22 disposals at 68% with 9 clearances and 3 tackles. Stepped up in the absence of Pendlebury/Treloar/Adams.

Dunn – didn’t read the rule changes and got away with a lucky rushed behind. Nice supergoal. Clearly under instruction to push forward and attack when the opportunity arises. A decent start.

Elliott – showed glimpses of what we all know he can do before being dragged (33% game time). Got through which is the main thing.
Fasolo – looked a bit rusty, but he is a livewire up forward and can push through the midfield.

Goldsack – he’s one of my favourites, but he will need to step up a few gears or he will find himself playing VFL. Did a few 1%ers (5). Dunn probably slots in ahead of him based purely on that game.

Greenwood – 19 disposals at 63% with 4 clangers. 2 rebound 50s and 5 I50s.

Hoskin—Elliott – flashier than I expected and ran down one player with a great tackle. 2 goal 1 behind. If he can bring the defensive game to the F50 he will offer us something.

Howe – I was disappointed tbh, but limited game time (39%). Anyway, bank that game knowing he can produce what he did last year.

Keeffe - solid return and his DE remains high (82%). 4 I50s. Showed he can provide a chop-out in the ruck. Forward or back? Next couple of games will tell.

Maynard – I know they have pumped games into this kid early, but for mine he is depth. 2 R50s and 3 1%ers.

Mayne – disappointing first game for mine. Did have 4 tackles and 1goal, but 2 frees against and 2 clangers.

Moore – pretty quiet.

Phillips – ball magnet. 24 disposals, but at 62%. Mainly uncontested. 9 marks and 4 tackles to go with 1 goal 2 behinds. Needs to sharpen up disposal and damage the opposition. 4 clangers.

Ramsay – busier than I noticed. 17 disposals at a tidy 82% with 4 I50s. 3 clangers.

Scahde – showed a bit. 7 1%ers and 3 tackles.

Scharenberg – limited game time (46%). 5 disposals at 60%.

Sidebottom – 21 disposals at 67%. 4 tackles and 3 I50s. 3 clangers.

Sinclair – hamstring so 37% game time. Was looking good prior to that with 8 disposals at 88%.

Smith – 22 disposals at 82. Mainly uncontested. 11 marks.

Varcoe – 13 disposals at 69% with 5 tackles and 3 I50s. 3 clangers.

White – 11 disposals at 91%. Looked versatile and mobile.

[Day -20] JLT MATCH 2
Saturday, 4 March
Fremantle vs Collingwood
Rushton Park, Mandurah
13:40 WST

[Day -13] VFL MATCH 1
Saturday, 11 March
Collingwood VFL vs Geelong
Holden Centre
11:30 EDT

[Day -13] JLT MATCH 3
Saturday, 11 March
Richmond vs Collingwood
Ted Summerton Reserve, Moe
13:10 EDT

[Day 0] VFL MATCH 2
Friday, 24 March
Collingwood VFL vs Footscray
Holden Centre
16:15 EDT

[Day 0] AFL ROUND 1
Friday, 24 March
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs
MCG
19:50 EDT

[Day 6] VFL MATCH 3
Thursday, 30 March
Richmond vs Collingwood VFL
Punt Road Oval
16:00 EDT

[Day 6] AFL ROUND 2
Thursday, 30 March
Richmond vs Collingwood
MCG
19:20 EDT

[Day 14] AFL ROUND 3
Friday, 7 April
Sydney vs Collingwood
SCG
19:50 EDT

[Day 15] VFL MATCH 4
Saturday, 8 April
Collingwood VFL vs North Ballarat
Holden Centre
12:00 EDT

Season proper:

R1 vs WBD @ MCG
R2 vs RIC @ MCG
R3 vs SYD @ SCG
R4 vs STK @ ES (bloody home game at their dung heap)
R5 vs ESS @ MCG
R6 vs GEE @ MCG
R7 vs CAR @ MCG
R8 vs GWS @ SS
R9 vs HAW @ MCG
R10 vs BRI @ MCG
R11 vs FRE @ DS
R12 vs MEL @ MCG
R13 BYE
R14 vs PTA @ MCG
R15 vs HAW @ MCG
R16 vs ESS @ MCG
R17 vs GCS @ MS
R18 vs WCE @ ES
R19 vs ADE @ MCG
R20 vs NM @ ES
R21 vs PTA @ AO
R22 vs GEE @ MCG
R23 vs MEL @ MCG

8 games at the MCG pre-bye and 6 games after.

Best 22

This will be based on exposed AFL form. I will start with a depth chart and put my neck on the chopping block with a "best 22" sometime during the pre-season, probably towards the end.

1st Ruck
Grundy (~11.4 AFLPRP)

2nd Ruck/Forward
Cox* (~8.4 AFLPRP)
Keeffe
White (~9.8 AFLPRP)
Moore (~6.9 AFLPRP)
Lynch*
McCarthy*

Tall (>=190cm) Forwards
2nd Ruck/Forwards plus
Goldsack (~9.0 AFLPRP)
Pendlebury (~18.6 AFLPRP)
Howe (~12.3 AFLPRP)
Wills (~12.0 AFLPRP)
Crisp (~11.7 AFLPRP)
Reid (~8.9 AFLPRP)
Oxley (~8.4 AFLPRP)

Tall (>=190cm) Backs
Keeffe
Howe (~12.3 AFLPRP)
Langdon (~11.0 AFLPRP)
Reid (~8.9 AFLPRP)
Goldsack (~9.0 AFLPRP)
Dunn
White (~9.8 AFLPRP)
Oxley (~8.4 AFLPRP)
Scharenberg
McCarthy*
Schade*

Smaller Forwards
Elliott
Fasolo (~12.9 AFLPRP)
Wells
Mayne
Greenwood (~9.5 AFLPRP)
De Goey (~9.0 AFLPRP)
Blair (~8.6 AFLPRP)
Varcoe (~7.4 AFLPRP)
Hoskin-Elliott
Broomhead
Crocker
Phillips

Smaller Backs
Ramsay
Maynard (~10.2 AFLPRP)
Aish (~10.4 AFLPRP)
Sinclair (~9.3 AFLPRP)
Varcoe (~7.4 AFLPRP)
Smith (~7.1 AFLPRP)
Mackie*

Midfielders
Pendlebury (~18.6 AFLPRP)
Treloar (~15.8 AFLPRP)
Sidebottom (~13.8 AFLPRP)
Adams (~13.4 AFLPRP)
Wells
Crisp (~11.7 AFLPRP)
Greenwood (~9.5 AFLPRP)
De Goey (~9.0 AFLPRP)
Aish (~10.4 AFLPRP)
Wills (~12.0 AFLPRP)
Broomhead
Smith (~7.1 AFLPRP)
Oxley (~8.4 AFLPRP)
Crocker
Phillips
Thomas*
Sier

* = rookie list

Preliminary Thoughts on Best 22

Steps:

1) Anyone averaging > 10 AFLPRP gets in (I'm including Elliott for this purpose as I'm pretty sure he would have back in 2015 when fit).

FF Elliott XXX Fasolo
HF Wills XXX Crisp
C Sidebottom Treloar XXX
HB Howe XXX Langdon
B Maynard XXX Aish
R Grundy Pendlebury Adams
Int XXX XXX XXX XXX

2) Structural needs (2nd ruck/forward, KP backs, KP forwards).

FF Elliott Cox Fasolo
HF Wills Moore Crisp
C Sidebottom Treloar XXX
HB Howe Reid Langdon
B Maynard Keeffe Aish
R Grundy Pendlebury Adams
Int XXX XXX XXX XXX

3) Consider recent FA/trade additions (Wells, Mayne, Dunn, Hoskin-Elliott).

FF Elliott Cox Fasolo
HF Wills Moore Crisp
C Sidebottom Treloar Wells
HB Howe Reid Langdon
B Maynard Keeffe Aish
R Grundy Pendlebury Adams
Int Mayne XXX XXX Hoskin-Elliott (?)

(I currently have Dunn and White as next cabs off the rank if KPB or KPF goes down).

4) This leaves two or three (depending on WHE who I am unsure on, but have given the benefit of the doubt to given we traded some value for him) midfield slots open. I'd have Greenwood and De Goey leading the pack for those spots currently.

FF Elliott Cox Fasolo
HF Wills Moore Crisp
C Sidebottom Treloar Wells
HB Howe Reid Langdon
B Maynard Keeffe Aish
R Grundy Pendlebury Adams
Int Mayne Greenwood De Goey Hoskin-Elliott (?)

Of course there is plenty o

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Last edited by MightyMagpie on Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:23 am; edited 92 times in total
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inxs88 



Joined: 17 Aug 2014


PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:37 pm
Post subject: Re: Mighty Magpie’s 2017 Season PreviewReply with quote

Great effort and thorough as always!!!
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MightyMagpie 



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:11 pm
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Thanks inxs88.

I've added List Management and a few links in Pre-Season Snippets.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:53 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking forward to the updates as they come.

This was a very handy guide in the off-season last year.

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uncanny 



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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:22 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Good job once again Mighty Magpie
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jackcass Cancer



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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:46 am
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Sensational effort.
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neil Sagittarius



Joined: 08 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:17 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Sensational effort Well done
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:26 pm
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Added injury analysis, player reviews, coaching panel and depth chart.
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RudeBoy 



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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:32 pm
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Bloody hell MM. That's an amazing effort.

I assume you are unemployed or retired? Wink
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jackcass Cancer



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:37 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

RudeBoy wrote:
Bloody hell MM. That's an amazing effort.

I assume you are unemployed or retired? Wink


Or a government employee...
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RudeBoy 



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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:46 pm
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jackcass wrote:
RudeBoy wrote:
Bloody hell MM. That's an amazing effort.

I assume you are unemployed or retired? Wink


Or a government employee...


Boom...tish Cool
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:50 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Great stuff thanks
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MagpieBat 

The moderator Nick's deserves... but hopefully not the one it needs right now...


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 6:05 pm
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Excellent work, MM! Deserves a sticky!

Smile

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Piesnchess 



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PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:02 pm
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Great work, well done, this should be published in full in the next edition of IN black and white, it has too be, surely, make it happen eddie.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:23 pm
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As always, much appreciated.
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