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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Number 35 wrote: | It takes 380-400 goals to finish top 2 on the ladder, i've noticed this looking over the ladder for the last 15 seasons. So we're going to need at least 250 goals from :
Moore(50)
Mayne(30)
White(30)
Cox(30)
Elliot(30)
Fasolo(45)
Steele(50)
WHE(20)
Crocker(15)
= 300 goals. Am i asking too much? If Pendles,Wells and Treloar can be used effectiveley as outside runners Via Adams DeGoeyGreenwoodCrisp and Co., then i can project just those outside players creating 20 scoring chances per game. I also believe Aish and Phillips will bloom next season as our Classman and Hardman. And hoping Jet Thomas can pick up where he left from. |
You're correct - but you probably are asking too much. Collingwood's decline since 2011 has, in substance, been a goal-scoring decline caused by the loss of players around Cloke who kicked significant numbers of goals over seasons. It's all very well to say (as some have previously) that this will be covered by a "spread" of goals from the midfielders but there has been, to date, little evidence to support the suggestion that this is likely. Although, of course, past performance isn't necessarily a predictor of future performance (for all sorts of reasons), it's usually reasonable to have a look at the numbers of goals players have scored per game in recent seasons and make some appropriate adjustments based on, eg, whether you expect them to be played closer to goal or further away in the next season. I haven't yet had time to look at the actual contributions of any likely Collingwood 2017 forward-line in any detail (I will do that once the recruiting is completed) but I think it's fair to say that you're expecting almost everyone to demonstrate an upswing on recent form. There's a substantial risk inherent in that projection, you'd think. |
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Johnno75
Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna
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Wow that's quite a stat but that is an average of about 18 goals a game.
I can't see us doing that
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Human behavioural studies suggest people who use a lot of swear words tend to be more honest & trustworthy. |
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jackcass 
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo
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| Dave The Man wrote: | | MJ23 wrote: | | Damien wrote: | | The question is whether Darcy is better suited to CHF or FF? |
Or CHB |
That be wasting his Talent |
Not if the ball doesn't get forward |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Johnno75 wrote: | Wow that's quite a stat but that is an average of about 18 goals a game.
I can't see us doing that |
I took it to be predicated on playing 25 games and winning a GF, in which case it's 15 to 16 goals per game? |
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BEAMER09
Joined: 10 Apr 2009
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Feel sorry for Moore as he needs a few more years to bulk up.
He is our best forward and he will take the best defender and my concern is that he might feel 30 years old by the time he is 24-25.
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COLLINGW09D |
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Geek
geek
Joined: 06 Apr 2006
Location: Jacana
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| Number 35 wrote: | It takes 380-400 goals to finish top 2 on the ladder, i've noticed this looking over the ladder for the last 15 seasons. So we're going to need at least 250 goals from :
Moore(50)
Mayne(30)
White(30)
Cox(30)
Elliot(30)
Fasolo(45)
Steele(50)
WHE(20)
Crocker(15)
= 300 goals. Am i asking too much? If Pendles,Wells and Treloar can be used effectiveley as outside runners Via Adams DeGoeyGreenwoodCrisp and Co., then i can project just those outside players creating 20 scoring chances per game. I also believe Aish and Phillips will bloom next season as our Classman and Hardman. And hoping Jet Thomas can pick up where he left from. |
Interesting stat. So 15 or 16 goals per game.
Here's a list of average goals per game for 2016. I've gone for 6 forwards and 10 mids (3 mids, 3 follower and 4 interchange).
Moore 1.4
Fasolo 2.1
Elliott 1.5 (2015)
White 1.4
Mayne 0.8
WHE 0.5 from 2 games. 0.8 career average
= 8.0
Greenwood 0.9
Sidebottom 0.8
De Goey 0.8
Aish 0.7
Treloar 0.6
Pendles 0.5
Grundy 0.5
Crisp 0.4
Adams 0.4
Wells 0.3
= 5.9
(I'd have Varcoe as a back)
So that gets us up to 13.9 goals a game and within striking distance of your 15 goals, especially if one of our numerous running backs drifts forward a couple of times a game. I'm tipping an improvement next year so we are looking good in that regard.
But how about the down side?
Only a couple of players will play every game for us. We are looking for coverage from:
Cox 1.6
Blair 0.7
Crocker 0.6
Phillips 0.5
Varcoe 0.4
Wills 0.2
... and other defenders who can pinch hit forward like Goldsack, Oxley, Reid, Howe, Dunn etc.
So one thing that came out of this exercise is that the average goal scoring performance of our best 22 is pretty decent. Find a goal a game from one of our backs and add 10 behinds (usually more) and we are averaging over 100 points a game and into the top 4 on points for. And that's based on 2016 stats which were pretty shite. If Mayne finds his mojo and the list gets some natural improvement running through it, then we'er laughing.
The issue though is that our coverage isn't good enough. If we miss a couple of our heavier scorers, we might make do with natural improvement of what is a very young list. But if we get up to half a dozen outs we just don't have the backup fire power. I don't know the average games played by the players listed above as well as the number of players missing from our 22 each week but I'd wager it isn't pretty reading.
Of course, if we find ourselves missing up to 11 of our first 25 like we were at times in 2016, nothing can save us. |
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Johnno75
Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | Johnno75 wrote: | Wow that's quite a stat but that is an average of about 18 goals a game.
I can't see us doing that |
I took it to be predicated on playing 25 games and winning a GF, in which case it's 15 to 16 goals per game? |
Not so sure. Anyhow the Bulldogs kicked 268 goals in 22 games this season and 56 in 4 finals for a total of 324. They show it's possible with a very good defensive structure.
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Human behavioural studies suggest people who use a lot of swear words tend to be more honest & trustworthy. |
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think positive 
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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| Johnno75 wrote: | | Pies4shaw wrote: | | Johnno75 wrote: | Wow that's quite a stat but that is an average of about 18 goals a game.
I can't see us doing that |
I took it to be predicated on playing 25 games and winning a GF, in which case it's 15 to 16 goals per game? |
Not so sure. Anyhow the Bulldogs kicked 268 goals in 22 games this season and 56 in 4 finals for a total of 324. They show it's possible with a very good defensive structure. |
And an umpire up their arse
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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Johnno75
Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna
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Funny how the AFL did find decisions wrong in the GF. Unlike them to criticise
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Human behavioural studies suggest people who use a lot of swear words tend to be more honest & trustworthy. |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| Bucks2014 wrote: | | MJ23 wrote: | | Damien wrote: | | The question is whether Darcy is better suited to CHF or FF? |
Or CHB |
Not for mine, he's done his apprenticeship at under 18's and also played VFL at CHB.
Darcy will own CHF and thank god as it's been along time since we've had a star. |
yeah, its been 2 full years since we last had the dominant power forward in the comp. I guess they say that two years is a long time in football.....
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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Number 35
Joined: 17 Apr 2016
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Hmmm some very interesting insights above. I would love to see Moore Elliot Fasolo and Steele have 7 consecutive games together as permenant forwards. Matthew Richardson said future goalkicking superstars all have at least one game in their first dozen where they kick a bag of 5. Moore Faz Billy and Steele have all shown that. I find that very interesting considering they have not all played together yet! Add Mason Cox to that list as well. I mean 17 goals from 11 games in very impressive. Considering it took the Highly Rated Cloke of 10 years ago, 30 games to reach 16 goals. So i have high hopes that one of Mason or White will take the next step next year. I cant stress enough. "ManicMayne" will be the most important Cog in this machine. However Steele is the big one for me. With Wells coming in and younger players stepping into midfield, then Steele will be the most Valuable player as a scorer/creator. His smarts around Half Forward id like ever-present.................. Jet Thomas!!!! The biggest darkhorse in all of Football. I have never seen anyone have stats quite like him. 29 touches 3 goals on 2 occasions in his first 20 games. 27 and 2 and a 35 and 1 also. It took Pendlebury and Swan around 50 games to begin producing that. With Jet and Wells. Steele can re-invent himself as a consistent classy Half-Forward. And Treloar and Thomas may become the best 1-2 midfield combo in the Competition. Im quietly confident about our chances of Top 4 next year...
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Gavin Brown.. Collingwood lifting..Right on the boundary line, back to Milane likewise... DAICOS nearly runs out of room........ GOAL |
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Number 35
Joined: 17 Apr 2016
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If Thomas wasnt banned. He may very well be in the top 5 mids in the comp right now! Too many people have forgotten about him. He has eletric pace and decent vision. Uses it well and gets it at an elite rate. Gets Goals and not scared of the Hard ball. His baisically another Treloar.
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Gavin Brown.. Collingwood lifting..Right on the boundary line, back to Milane likewise... DAICOS nearly runs out of room........ GOAL |
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Number 35
Joined: 17 Apr 2016
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As it stands. I have 500$ on Pies at 26-1. And am seriously considering upping-the-ante. For the following reasons.
- The teams most likely to win the flag are GWS Dogs Swans and probaly the Crows. All of which will do not claim the 'MCG'.
- Our form in the second half of the year. Key stats and great Team stats all of which we ranked top 3 in the AFL for.
- Geelong and Hawthorn are on the Decline. IMO
- We are ahead of Saints Demons and Tigers without injury. IMO
- Leaking over the top goals will improve as our Ruck/Midfield grows and owns its territory!
- Negative force of Cloke gone! Not to be underestimated. Remember how our forward line reacted when Cox kicked the 1st goal Anzac Day? Confidence! We wouldnt have looked that good if it was cloke who just snuck in a point. And then on return Essendon had of answered. For example.
- FFFL Free Flowing Forward Line. Dynamic. Good Marks. Accurate kicks and Depth. Mason the unknown. Manic Mayne whos been covering for Old Man Pav. Elliot Faz and Moore together at last. ? Steele WHE Crocker ?
- Luck!! We have been without it for a long time. Chances are with is for a good injury run
- 2010 superstitions.
- It is rumored we are playing the Bulldogs round1 at Etihad. De Ja Vu ???
- Robert Walls is back!!!! He has been missing for a while unless i havent noticed him. However, allow me to take you all back to mid 2010. Collingwood v St.Kilda. I was bricklaying Early Saturday and got home just in time with a couple frothys. Ready to see if we were deadly enough to claim a 'Scalp'. Walls was comentating. 3 mins into the 1st quater we were building up play down the wing with a string of chip kicks. He said AND I QUOTE.... " If Collingwood are going to play this way they are going to get absoulotley smashed today! " We went on to win by 42 points. We then went on to win the Flag!..... 6 years later.... He has come out from the old Dark Place. And labelled in an article Expert Football Anaylist Robert Walls has criticised Collingwoods Trade Targets saying AND I QUOTE! " I would be worried. I cant say any direction in where they are heading ".....
Now you may all be thinking. YEr SoOo? He goes for Carlscum right? They HATE US!
But I see it in him...
When we're ready to take Scalps...
They SEE IT
Before ANYBODY else can SEE IT 
And They can do anything else but criticise and create doubt!
--------- 2017 Premiers -----------
Howe White Maynard
Pendlebury Reid Schareberg
Thomas Adams Wells
Fasolo Moore Steele
Elliot Mason Mayne
Grundy Treloar Crisp
Aish Hoskin Greenwood DeGoey
- We will win the Flag and 105.1 MMM will claim MasonMayneMoore as their own lol
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Gavin Brown.. Collingwood lifting..Right on the boundary line, back to Milane likewise... DAICOS nearly runs out of room........ GOAL |
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Number 35
Joined: 17 Apr 2016
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Im going out on a limb.
- MMM will kick very VERY close to 150 goals. Neither of them will win the Coleman.
- Pendlebury will win the Brownlow playing as a Half Back.
-Treloar and Thomas will poll in the top ten in the brownlow.
-Grundy and White will earn All-Australian status at Ruck and Fullback.
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Gavin Brown.. Collingwood lifting..Right on the boundary line, back to Milane likewise... DAICOS nearly runs out of room........ GOAL |
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Presti35 
Dick Lee for Legend Status
Joined: 05 Oct 2001
Location: London, England
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I dont think we can win the flag next year, but I think we've hit the turning point and we'll start to see some much better football.
I'll hope to be one of the teams that can finish in a spot around 5-8. Anything better than that would be a massive bonus.
I'd love it if Pendlebury could take home the Charlie.
Love your optimism 35. It's nice to read a positive view for once.
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A Goal Saved Is 2 Goals Earned! |
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