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Neil Appleby 
Joined: 11 Feb 1998
Location: Melbourne
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| Post subject: Collingwood's List Management |  |
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Back in 2012 Gary Pert was on record as saying Collingwood was well placed to challenge for a flag in 'the next three years.' By 2015 he was saying the same thing again echoed by Eddie and more tentatively by Bucks.
This leads me to ask, does our club hierarchy have an inflated notion of the value of our player list? To boldly make a pronouncement once during a rebuild is probably excusable, but to fall for the same trick twice leads me to believe that some people at the top, including footy directors, list managers and recruiters have vastly overrated our stocks.
The Injury Gods have not been kind to Collingwood during Bucks's tenure and that record is easily proven. Only last year did Collingwood have anything like a healthy list and when injuries hit in the second half, we fell away again.
So injuries can explain our mediocrity to some degree, but have we as a club overrated our players pretty significantly, or are there other factors I have missed?
I'd be interested to hear the views of the experienced Nicksters on this question.
_________________
After the epic draw comes the decisive knockout!
Collingwood rules the world again and Mick Malthouse fulfils his destiny with the twenty ten premiership and can you hear the people sing! |
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droversdog65
Joined: 27 Nov 2014
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Injury gods have not been kind???
I've been following the pies since 10 years old in 1964 and never has ANY team at any time had anything remotely approaching our sustained long term injury list since late 2011. |
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Lazza
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia
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| droversdog65 wrote: | Injury gods have not been kind???
I've been following the pies since 10 years old in 1964 and never has ANY team at any time had anything remotely approaching our sustained long term injury list since late 2011. |
Good to hear from you.
Well, I haven't followed them for as long as you but I totally agree with your comments.
At times this season, I even gave up being frustrated, annoyed or angry with news of yet another bloody injury. It was almost a bloody given, along with the usual crap umpiring we get.
If any poster can name a duration of 5 seasons worse for injuries at Collingwood than 2012 - 2016, I for one would love to hear it.
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Don't confuse your current path with your final destination. Just because it's dark and stormy now doesn't meant that you aren't headed for glorious sunshine! |
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Neil Appleby
Joined: 11 Feb 1998
Location: Melbourne
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I completely agree. A few years ago I wrote a long post about how Buck's first 3 years had been ruined by injuries and retirements. I listed the setbacks year by year.
That said, I think there is a case to be mounted that Collingwood's footy department has overrated our player personnel. Not as badly as Richmond or North mind you, but pretty significantly nevertheless.
_________________
After the epic draw comes the decisive knockout!
Collingwood rules the world again and Mick Malthouse fulfils his destiny with the twenty ten premiership and can you hear the people sing! |
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burnsy17 
Joined: 10 Aug 2003
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Injuries have smashed us but we'll be better for it in the coming years having pumped games into a lot of kids.
Phillips, Wills, Crocker etc look like they'll be handy types, we have Ramsay and Shaz coming back from injuries who both look like they can play. Maynard is a likely type. Langdon is a good player and he'll be back. Grundy is still a kid and already very good. Moore is a freak... Josh Smith looks to have improved as the year went by... same for DeGoey, albeit the jury is still out on him. We have the makings of a really good side and all we need to keep doing is adding 1-2 quality kids over the next 2-3 years to have a squad capable of great things...
Plus... Trealor, Aish, Crisp, Adams, are all still young...
And - Keeffe and Thomas (remember, Thomas averages around 18-20 touches per game and looked like being best 22 type) will be good additions to the side. Both probably chomping at the bit to repay the club.
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Beware the swooping Magpie.
Last edited by burnsy17 on Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:58 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| Post subject: Re: Collingwood's List Management | |
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| Neil Appleby wrote: | Back in 2012 Gary Pert was on record as saying Collingwood was well placed to challenge for a flag in 'the next three years.' By 2015 he was saying the same thing again echoed by Eddie and more tentatively by Bucks.
This leads me to ask, does our club hierarchy have an inflated notion of the value of our player list? To boldly make a pronouncement once during a rebuild is probably excusable, but to fall for the same trick twice leads me to believe that some people at the top, including footy directors, list managers and recruiters have vastly overrated our stocks.
The Injury Gods have not been kind to Collingwood during Bucks's tenure and that record is easily proven. Only last year did Collingwood have anything like a healthy list and when injuries hit in the second half, we fell away again.
So injuries can explain our mediocrity to some degree, but have we as a club overrated our players pretty significantly, or are there other factors I have missed?
I'd be interested to hear the views of the experienced Nicksters on this question. |
No club is under as much pressure to perform well as Collingwood, because of our unrivaled army of fanatical supporters. This effects both the external as well as the internal perception of our capabilities. The club is under immense pressure to deliver results and so regularly succumb to making hasty predictions in response from media questions. This is done to placate the Magpie Army. Ultimately, however, it has the reverse effect, as it only puts the club under more pressure when they don't deliver on the promises publicly made. I'd much prefer it if we entered each year publicly saying our aim is to win the flag, but make no predictions as to how well or bad we will perform. After all, there are so many unknown variables, especially injuries, which cannot be factored in in advance. Even now, I think it was unwise of Bucks to say he'd be out of a job if we failed to make the finals next season. What happens if Grundy, Moore and Treloar miss most of next year through injuries, but we still manage to win 12 games, just missing the finals on percentage? So I always take any predictions with a grain of salt.
By the way, I reckon we can win the flag next year! Go Pies!! |
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didick
didick
Joined: 17 Jun 2009
Location: Brisbane
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Hmm. 2012 to 2016 is a bit of a blur. Back in 2012 I think there was confidence that we were in a strong position to challenge given we started bringing in mature recruits to try and keep experience in the team. A la Q Stick and Russell, Young etc. Those players didn't quite meet was expected and with a few injuries we fell away. I think back in those days, we all probably expected us to challenge given 2010 and 2011 we played in GFs. At some point the injury curse began to compound and a flag was out the window. But back in 2012 when Pert was so bullish I think he had a right to be confident. The continued demise however, for whatever reason has put paid to any ideas of a flag in the next year or two in my opinion.
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"The night is a very dark time for me" Chaz Michael Michaels |
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qldmagpie67
Joined: 18 Dec 2008
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I think there a few players on our list that are overrated and several who are very inconsistent with performance from quarter to quarter let alone match to match
The past few years showed we are only ever 3 or 4 injuries to key players away from disaster.
Swan Elliott Scharenberg Ramsay Langdon all would have been in or close being in our best 22 this year that's 5 of 22 a bit over 20%.
Add to that extended matches missed by Adams Fasalo Moore Reid and Cloke Brown McCaffer Toovey as experienced players not able to perform at a high level
Grundy Aish Howe DeGoey all started the year very slowly and Pendles played probably half the year busted in some form and Treloar had no preseason due to his groin
Greenwood Crisp Williams have all been patchy
So 9 wins all considered was probably about right
I think next season unless we make some decent moves at the trade table we are way to light on experience to really threaten and again if we had say Pendles Treloar Reid & Moore miss extended periods with injury we would be on a hiding to nothing
There's no guarantee how Scharenberg Ramsay Keefe Thomas Elliott will come up next season
Also our leadership (on field) needs a major overhaul. We don't have the right leaders in place on the field. I think we need to look to the future. Give Adams Treloar Moore spots along side Pendles
We need everything to go right for us to be a top 8 side next season and as we all know that's a rarity |
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thompsoc
Joined: 21 Sep 2009
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One very good way of marking our list is to work out how many A graders/elites we have.
We have 2 at the moment in Pendles and Sidey
We have 2 probables in the near future in Treloar and Moore.
That is not enough to have a tilt at the flag.
It is then down to potential with the others.
_________________
we don't eat our own at collingwood we just allow them to foul our nest. |
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5 from the wing on debut
Joined: 27 May 2016
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| qldmagpie67 wrote: | I think there a few players on our list that are overrated and several who are very inconsistent with performance from quarter to quarter let alone match to match
The past few years showed we are only ever 3 or 4 injuries to key players away from disaster.
Swan Elliott Scharenberg Ramsay Langdon all would have been in or close being in our best 22 this year that's 5 of 22 a bit over 20%.
Add to that extended matches missed by Adams Fasalo Moore Reid and Cloke Brown McCaffer Toovey as experienced players not able to perform at a high level
Grundy Aish Howe DeGoey all started the year very slowly and Pendles played probably half the year busted in some form and Treloar had no preseason due to his groin
Greenwood Crisp Williams have all been patchy
So 9 wins all considered was probably about right
I think next season unless we make some decent moves at the trade table we are way to light on experience to really threaten and again if we had say Pendles Treloar Reid & Moore miss extended periods with injury we would be on a hiding to nothing
There's no guarantee how Scharenberg Ramsay Keefe Thomas Elliott will come up next season
Also our leadership (on field) needs a major overhaul. We don't have the right leaders in place on the field. I think we need to look to the future. Give Adams Treloar Moore spots along side Pendles
We need everything to go right for us to be a top 8 side next season and as we all know that's a rarity |
Does it really matter if a player is a nominated leader or not? If they are leaders they will lead, regardless of title. |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| thompsoc wrote: | One very good way of marking our list is to work out how many A graders/elites we have.
We have 2 at the moment in Pendles and Sidey
We have 2 probables in the near future in Treloar and Moore.
That is not enough to have a tilt at the flag.
It is then down to potential with the others. |
I'd add Aish as a probable and Reid as a question mark. If he retains fitness, he's an elite CHB.
No team can field 22 elite players, it's the strength of the bottom 6 that make the difference.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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thompsoc
Joined: 21 Sep 2009
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| stui magpie wrote: | | thompsoc wrote: | One very good way of marking our list is to work out how many A graders/elites we have.
We have 2 at the moment in Pendles and Sidey
We have 2 probables in the near future in Treloar and Moore.
That is not enough to have a tilt at the flag.
It is then down to potential with the others. |
I'd add Aish as a probable and Reid as a question mark. If he retains fitness, he's an elite CHB.
No team can field 22 elite players, it's the strength of the bottom 6 that make the difference. |
Sorry Stui but I disagree.
Aish has played a handful of good games.
Looks slow to me, but early days.
As for Reid he didn't do much this year but he could have
some upside next year.
I think you need 6 to 10 elite/ A grade players to win a flag.
But that also depends on the definition of the above.
_________________
we don't eat our own at collingwood we just allow them to foul our nest. |
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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| Neil Appleby wrote: | I completely agree. A few years ago I wrote a long post about how Buck's first 3 years had been ruined by injuries and retirements. I listed the setbacks year by year.
That said, I think there is a case to be mounted that Collingwood's footy department has overrated our player personnel. Not as badly as Richmond or North mind you, but pretty significantly nevertheless. |
I think it is pretty clear that even people who played and administered the game at the highest levels cannot predict the future with certainty. There are just too many variables, and in 2016 we saw two or three of the key variables play out very strongly - (1) the injury and decline rate to key players (and I mean really key players like Swan and Elliott and Cloke, who would probably have accounted for about 100 goals between them, on past form) ; (2) the slower-than expected development of youngsters such as DeGoey, Williams, Grundy, Aish et al ; and (3) a coaching team that clearly struggled to adapt our defence to this, in the first half of the season.
None of those variables were really predictable to experts, because they are just fundamentally unknowable. However, it is very probable that our current list has more growth than decline in it, and what is known is that we were capable of pushing some very good teams to the brink, as the season wore on. Therefore there is every reason to enter 2017 with confidence. But anyone who tells you that anything is certain in 2017 is fooling themselves.
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Two more flags before I die! |
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inxs88
Joined: 17 Aug 2014
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http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/collingwood-ceo-gary-pert-predicts-pie-flag-within-three-years-20140314-hviw8.html
It was actually 2014 and was prior to the opening round of the year so your 2 years amiss with your point of view. Big error. That aside the world is full of companies, governments and sporting codes (Peter Schwab 2004 anybody?) whom espouse good intentions and ambitious platitudes and the Pies are no different.
Did such prognostications take account for the curse of Davoren, the Beams transfer and many other external factors?? Not really.
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I love the Pies, hate Carlscum |
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gurugeoff
Joined: 09 Oct 2013
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in the end, the number of 'handy types' on your list must not exceed the number of really top players. Every player playing league football is a handy type. You see your own club every week and start getting an inflated view of your own 'handy types'.
In a nutshell, we have too many handy types, and not enough stars. |
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