We will make the 8
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| Post subject: We will make the 8 |  |
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OK, let's be frank, after such a disastrous start to our season, having the media sabotage our round 1 game with the drugs fiasco, then coping with a massive injury list and loss of key players, most pundits would say we are no chance to make the 8 from where we now sit on the ladder.
However, by my reckoning we only need to win 8 of our remaining 13 games to finish with 12 wins which should be enough to get us there. I think we'll win 9. Obviously we'll know more about our chances if we can beat the Dogs this week.
The next question is which team is most likely to drop out of the 8 to make way for us. I'm tipping we'll push Hawthorn out when we beat them in round 23. Go Pies! |
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BBHS 
bbhs
Joined: 30 Jun 2004
Location: Bellarine
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| We will need to beat the Dogs and Hawthorn this year to have a genuine crack I'd say. |
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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| Having a lousy start makes it hard. Basically can't drop more than 2 games. |
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jackcass
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo
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| Yeah, not sure we're a genuine threat this year but making the final 8 would certainly be a tonic for supporters. But then again, we'd have to have played well to get there so if we do, who knows! |
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Brenny
Joined: 05 Apr 2011
Location: Westpac Centre
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My tip is Adelaide or West Coast for my liking.
I think 6 of the top 8 are a lock unless something dramatic happens, so I think it's for the bottom two spots.
Hawthorn are too good to let this season slide. They might fall a little, but I think they will still be top eight.
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Heeeeeeeeeeeeeey, we want some Bayley! |
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September Zeros
Joined: 04 Oct 2012
Location: Behind you
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Ok being frank. No I don't think we will make the 8.
I don't think we will win enough games, if I stay optimistic and we actually do beat just the teams we should have already this is how it will likely pan out.
Bulldogs- loss
Power- Win
Melbourne - Win
Dockers - Win
Carlton - win
Giants SPO- Loss
Adelaide AO - Loss
North - Loss
west coast- Loss
Richmond - Win
Bulldogs- Loss
Suns - Win ES WTF??
Hawthorn- Loss
That's 6 more wins to give us a grand total of 10 wins. 
Prove me wrong pies - start with the western welfare this week end.
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No Pressure, No Diamonds
They used to be a happy team at hawthorn.
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| Culprit wrote: | | Having a lousy start makes it hard. Basically can't drop more than 2 games. |
So you're saying we'll have to win 15 games to make the 8?  |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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It will be tough from here, but is certainly possible. Our best is good enough to beat anyone (I think), the real question is how often we can play at or close to our best because we will need to do that to win most of the remaining games. Big ask for such a young group, but certainly possible.
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All We Can Be |
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Krakouer Magic
Joined: 05 Apr 2011
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| Post subject: Re: We will make the 8 | |
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| RudeBoy wrote: | OK, let's be frank, after such a disastrous start to our season, having the media sabotage our round 1 game with the drugs fiasco, then coping with a massive injury list and loss of key players, most pundits would say we are no chance to make the 8 from where we now sit on the ladder.
However, by my reckoning we only need to win 8 of our remaining 13 games to finish with 12 wins which should be enough to get us there. I think we'll win 9. Obviously we'll know more about our chances if we can beat the Dogs this week.
The next question is which team is most likely to drop out of the 8 to make way for us. I'm tipping we'll push Hawthorn out when we beat them in round 23. Go Pies! |
I did the AFL ladder predictor. Crows Cats and Hawks finished 6th, 7th and 8th with 15 wins. Now, allow for 2 shock or upset losses for either of those three clubs and 8th gets in on 13 wins. Think we'll need to win 9 from 13 to be a chance to sneak in. If were good enough we'll win 9. If not, we'll probably just regret the stk, melb and carlton losses a tad more. |
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STOKA35 
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Mount Barker. South Australia
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| Just take it one week at a time |
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mattys123
Joined: 07 Jul 2009
Location: Narre Warren, VIC
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| RudeBoy wrote: | | Culprit wrote: | | Having a lousy start makes it hard. Basically can't drop more than 2 games. |
So you're saying we'll have to win 15 games to make the 8? |
Nah I think he's close to it there, 14 wins minimum to get 8th this year, and maybe 15. It's got to do with Essendon, Lions, Dockers and Suns all being uncompetitive this year.
usually there's only 1-2 sides with 5 wins or less, this year there will be at least 3 which just adds extra wins to the 7th and 8th placed teams.
We won't play finals, and it's all due to starting 2-5, but we can decide who does make it, especially looking at our last 5-6 games. |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| mattys123 wrote: | | RudeBoy wrote: | | Culprit wrote: | | Having a lousy start makes it hard. Basically can't drop more than 2 games. |
So you're saying we'll have to win 15 games to make the 8? |
Nah I think he's close to it there, 14 wins minimum to get 8th this year, and maybe 15. It's got to do with Essendon, Lions, Dockers and Suns all being uncompetitive this year.
usually there's only 1-2 sides with 5 wins or less, this year there will be at least 3 which just adds extra wins to the 7th and 8th placed teams.
We won't play finals, and it's all due to starting 2-5, but we can decide who does make it, especially looking at our last 5-6 games. |
You guys may be right, and maths is certainly not my strong point, but if you win more games than you lose, doesn't that automatically position you in the top half of the ladder? Maybe I'm missing something, but I'd be shocked if 13 wins weren't enough to make 8th. Anyway, we'll know at the end of the season. |
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1892_
Joined: 18 Dec 2015
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| 13 wins should be enough for 8th place, however with our percentage currently poor unless we smash more than a few sides we'd need another one. |
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Krakouer Magic
Joined: 05 Apr 2011
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| RudeBoy wrote: | | mattys123 wrote: | | RudeBoy wrote: | | Culprit wrote: | | Having a lousy start makes it hard. Basically can't drop more than 2 games. |
So you're saying we'll have to win 15 games to make the 8? |
Nah I think he's close to it there, 14 wins minimum to get 8th this year, and maybe 15. It's got to do with Essendon, Lions, Dockers and Suns all being uncompetitive this year.
usually there's only 1-2 sides with 5 wins or less, this year there will be at least 3 which just adds extra wins to the 7th and 8th placed teams.
We won't play finals, and it's all due to starting 2-5, but we can decide who does make it, especially looking at our last 5-6 games. |
You guys may be right, and maths is certainly not my strong point, but if you win more games than you lose, doesn't that automatically position you in the top half of the ladder? Maybe I'm missing something, but I'd be shocked if 13 wins weren't enough to make 8th. Anyway, we'll know at the end of the season. |
8th since 2010
2015 - North 13 W 9 L
2014 - Tigers 12 W 10 L
2013 - Port 12 W 10 L (Wada's finest got banned with 14-8 record)
2012 - North 14 W 8 L
2011 - Essendon 11 W 10 L 1 D
2010 - Blues 11 W 11 L
13 at minimum to make it this year. More likely 14.
Hawks home run - lions, demons, essendon, north, suns, port, swans, tigers, blues, demons, north, west coast and pies.
Might split north and demons. Tigers and pies might be touch and go. Port did beat them last year.
Swans and west coast away they are no chance on current form.
At a minimum I see at least 7 wins for HFC to come |
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Brenny
Joined: 05 Apr 2011
Location: Westpac Centre
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^ You know what shits me the most with the Hawthorn v Pies game... R23 is the first time we play them. Now I don't mind leaving the Hawks to what may be a scrap match... but man, we shouldn't have to wait to R23 to play a team first.
I just don't want that game to be a 'we need to win to make the eight'.
_________________
Heeeeeeeeeeeeeey, we want some Bayley! |
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