Round 10 --win to loss ratio

[BazBoy]

After preceding seasons of starting 8 and 3 then falling away to 3 and 8 we now head to round 10 with no certain win against Blues at G or Lions at the Gabba.

If that is uncertain then Geelong and Footsray to follow--a distinct possibility
of 2wins to 8 loss,s

[jackcass]

Could equally be 6-4... You're point?

[mattys123]

I think we will be 4-6, beat the Blues and one of the others (not sure which).

Pendles has talked about wanting to play better in the second half of the season as compared to the first half this year.

It's all going to plan.

[BazBoy]

My point is I see no improvement from the two sub standard

Not only cant we beat top sides we put in average performaces against
lesser credentialed sides

So what started a season of high expectations has fallen far short

[John Wren]

it's not a ratio.

[BazBoy]

Dont care what you call it --just feel no improvement
for two seasons and what ls before us at this stage

[John Wren]

why start another thread when there are 27 other threads with the same negative outlook that you could add to?

[What'sinaname]

[jackcass]

[What'sinaname]

I'll take 6-4 after 10 games

[yin-YANG]

Not sure why rnd 10 was deemed the milestone - we have usually noted our win loss ratio after 11 weeks. Even up to the bye gives us some time to ponder and reflect...

But anyway I will crunch the numbers... I think you have to break it down by probabilities:

By round 10: (given we are currently 2-4) Our chances are...
2 wins 8 losses - 25% (losing the lot)
3 wins 7 losses - 54% (beating bloozers losing the rest)
4 wins 6 losses - 20 % (beating Bloozers and Brins)
5 wins 5 losses- - 0.95% (beating bloozers, bions and one of cats or dogs)
6 wins 4 losses - 0.05% (winning all)

Given the Brions game is at the gabba - where they play Ok - I think they will go into that game as the favs... even if the Pies beat the Bloozers!

We have shown no indication this year that we can beat the best teams - of course there is a chance of catching these teams on an off day or repeating the results from the pre-season but this is highly unlikely.

I suggest it is more likely that we lose all games rather than beat Bloozers and Brions!

Even if we were just 50:50 in each game to win 4 games would be a probability of around 6% and we are a long way off a 50:50 chance for these 4 games!

Therefore 3-7 is most likely with a win against Port to take us to 3-8 at the 11 rnd mark

[Pies4shaw]

[5150]

We'll be 3 and 8 by round 10

[yin-YANG]

[5150]