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Yay or nay - should Britain vote to leave the EU?

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Wokko Pisces

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Joined: 04 Oct 2005


PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:54 pm
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Would the SNP survive if they won Scottish Independence but Spain vetoed their entry into the EU? Would be the worst of both worlds. I also don't see NI voting to rejoin Eire, it's still largely Unionist.
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Morrigu Capricorn



Joined: 11 Aug 2001


PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:34 pm
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^ Hmmm not sure about that Wokko - definitely some hard core on both sides but the cessation ( well that's not quite true there are still sectarian violence incidents daily - but they are not the mass casualty or deaths of the past) and the removal of border and security checks, freedom of movement and the ability to work and mix especially for the young uns to drink and dance together has been the catalyst for relative shall we say peace.

Many many in the counties who are of Irish decent have applied for and been granted Irish citizenship and they will keep their EU member state passports ( whilst the EU still exists at least) and since the Brexit vote there has been a huge surge in applications.

If the borders are reinstated and movement is restricted then I think reunification may happen ( not without pain I fear cause nutters on both sides will be out and about no doubt) but it's way too early to even contemplate yet- and if Nationalists had any brains they would just shut up for the moment and wait and see what unfolds.

It will depend on whether the EU can reinvent itself and the unelected boof heads of Brussels actually pull back and implement real reform so that the EU still exists - cause travel and work etc are certainly a lot easier if you have an EU member state passport that's for sure - and that may well be the catalyst for the beginning of reunification.

If the EU ceases to exist which is entirely possible with France and Netherlands beginning to agitate for a similar vote then I can't see reunification happening in my life time - no incentive for those in the counties to risk the potential violence.

Time will tell!

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stui magpie Gemini

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Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:43 pm
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So what happens to the United Kingdom if Scotland goes their own way and ireland unites and does the same?

I've never been able to get my head around England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales all being separate countries yet when referred to collectively as Great Britain they are seemingly one country.

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think positive Libra

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Joined: 30 Jun 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:48 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
So what happens to the United Kingdom if Scotland goes their own way and ireland unites and does the same?

I've never been able to get my head around England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales all being separate countries yet when referred to collectively as Great Britain they are seemingly one country.


We never win Wimbledon again Sad

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Morrigu Capricorn



Joined: 11 Aug 2001


PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:39 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
So what happens to the United Kingdom if Scotland goes their own way and ireland unites and does the same?

I've never been able to get my head around England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales all being separate countries yet when referred to collectively as Great Britain they are seemingly one country.


I'm bound to stuff this up - but what the hell Very Happy My understanding is that Great Britain as a term describes the nations that encompass the land mass of the island - England, Scotland and Wales. The United Kingdom refers to all those nations plus NI which consists of 6 counties following the declaration of the Irish free state - now known as the Republic of Eire who are an EU member state. The UK countries are joined by various agreements in a parliamentary democracy and all presided over by Lizzie and Phil the Greek and ultimately their offspring. Clear as mud eh ! Very Happy

Scotland are stuffed they may well vote for independence but it has been made very clear that the out vote means they are out as well ( regardless that the majority of Scots didn't vote this way) they will have to apply for EU membership which will take years and shiploads of cash which they don't have frankly!

Having said that - the total implosion of the EU is not unrealistic - massive agitation from the French, Swedes, Dutch et al general plebs for a vote is gaining - strange times ahead Confused

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:36 am
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This might help, Stui:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unitary_state

For all intents and purposes, the 'country' is the UK, in the sense that we generally consider nation states. Wales, Scotland etc. seem to function like partially autonomous provinces within that state, perhaps not unlike West Papua in Indonesia, or Chechnya in Russia.

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Wokko Pisces

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Joined: 04 Oct 2005


PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:39 am
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As I've said as well regarding Scotland their application to the EU would be immediately vetoed by Spain to prevent a precedent of seceding States gaining entry (They're worried about Catalonia) and Belgium, worried about the same thing (Flanders).

Scotland standing alone would be a basket case.
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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne

PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:03 am
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Love the British, don't like the result so let's do it again. A few years ago when I was seconded to BAE (British Aerospace) they did a survey with all staff asking about conditions and work life balance etc. Well the result of the survey was very negative so they sent an email around with a new link saying could we redo the survey as they didn't like the result. Shocked Laughing Laughing Laughing
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think positive Libra

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Joined: 30 Jun 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:41 am
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Culprit wrote:
Love the British, don't like the result so let's do it again. A few years ago when I was seconded to BAE (British Aerospace) they did a survey with all staff asking about conditions and work life balance etc. Well the result of the survey was very negative so they sent an email around with a new link saying could we redo the survey as they didn't like the result. Shocked Laughing Laughing Laughing


Hehehe that's a classic!

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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:44 am
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"it" being there's a paradox?
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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:53 am
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Wokko wrote:
As I've said as well regarding Scotland their application to the EU would be immediately vetoed by Spain to prevent a precedent of seceding States gaining entry (They're worried about Catalonia) and Belgium, worried about the same thing (Flanders).

Scotland standing alone would be a basket case.


I think that was true at the time of the last referendum on Scots independence, but i am not sure it would be now. The context is very different. Spain is a member of the EU and the EU wil not encourage secessionist behaviour in its own member states. However, if Spain had voted to leave the EU and Catalonia wanted to join, then the EU would, I imagine, be disposed to consider Catalonia's candidacy rather positively.

Again, a vote decided by a 2% margin changes everything.

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:02 am
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Culprit wrote:
Love the British, don't like the result so let's do it again. A few years ago when I was seconded to BAE (British Aerospace) they did a survey with all staff asking about conditions and work life balance etc. Well the result of the survey was very negative so they sent an email around with a new link saying could we redo the survey as they didn't like the result. Shocked Laughing Laughing Laughing


In this case i think a second referendum is controversially justifiable. A margin of 2% is driving a wrecking ball through the constitutional fabric of the UK, and causing alarming economic consequences.

This is not like a general election - the people voted on the basis of campaign speculation, but the result is irreversible and many times more defining and dramatic. If opinion polls suggest - as I think they might - that the public now understand the consequences and would vote differently, then I think it would be defensible to argue that a ratification referendum should be held. It might be argued that the purpose - ensuring that the British people have the relationship they want with the EU, having regard to all the facts - should trump procedure.

That may be logical - but it is probably politically impossible.

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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:43 am
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^^The decision has been made. Just because people failed to turn up to vote and have changed their mind isn't and it doesn't sit well with many for various reasons is irrelevant. That is why the LNP have called a plebiscite as they don't have to do anything about it. Shocked
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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:43 pm
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This is a good article:

https://overland.org.au/2016/06/brexit-and-the-new-hostility-to-participatory-democracy/

Quote:
Brexit and the new hostility to participatory democracy
Jeff Sparrow


The reaction to Brexit illustrates the desperate need for the Left to return to first principles. For, as the result broke on social media, a remarkable number of progressives directed their anger not at anti-immigrant demagogues and opportunist politicians but against the voters themselves and the very idea of a referendum in which they might express their will.

Its merely the most recent illustration of a growing estrangement from democracy, not only on the mainstream Right but also on the Left.

...

The majority of British voters were, we were told, buffoons and bigots Little Englanders too foolish to understand the self-evident virtues of European integration. Many Australians drew a direct parallel with the proposed plebiscite on same-sex marriage, a venture that would, we were told, allow a massive dam of ignorance and hatred to break its banks and drown us all.

Denunciations of the masses idiocy are always reactionary. If that seems surprising, its because, over the last decade, weve seen a minor cottage industry in books by supposed lefties with titles like Idiot America, The Dumbest Generation, A Short History of Stupid and so on. But if the masses are feeble minded, why bother trying to convince them? Why not instead devote yourself to reshaping the world on their behalf? Indeed, it often seems today that politics comes down to a choice between different versions of paternalism the stern daddy of the Right versus the kindly father of the Left.

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:01 pm
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Mugwump wrote:


In this case i think a second referendum is controversially justifiable. A margin of 2% is driving a wrecking ball through the constitutional fabric of the UK, and causing alarming economic consequences.

This is not like a general election - the people voted on the basis of campaign speculation, but the result is irreversible and many times more defining and dramatic. If opinion polls suggest - as I think they might - that the public now understand the consequences and would vote differently, then I think it would be defensible to argue that a ratification referendum should be held. It might be argued that the purpose - ensuring that the British people have the relationship they want with the EU, having regard to all the facts - should trump procedure.

That may be logical - but it is probably politically impossible.


Do the polls really suggest that a significant number would vote differently given a second go or is it just a real lot of noise coming from those who don't like the result?


think positive wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
So what happens to the United Kingdom if Scotland goes their own way and ireland unites and does the same?

I've never been able to get my head around England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales all being separate countries yet when referred to collectively as Great Britain they are seemingly one country.


We never win Wimbledon again Sad


Or the Ashes Razz

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