Australian Federal Election 2016

[Wokko]

[Bucks5]

I would have thought that the Libs will pick up the votes from the people who got sucked in by the Medicare scare campaign.

[HAL]

What would make you thought that the Libs will pick up the votes from the people who got sucked in by the Medicare scare campaign?

[David]

Hinch would certainly get screwed by the new ballot papers. Everything else would probably be more or less as before. I see no reason to think that Labor would win if the election were held again; if anything, the Coalition might win more seats.

[Dave The Man]

[David]

A fortnight after an election, unless the winners have immediately pulled the rug out from voters and yelled "Surprise! We totally lied to you all on that key campaign promise we made" (and even Tony Abbott waited at least a couple of months before doing that), you'd expect a similar if not more or less identical result – after all, how much are people's voting intentions likely to change in two weeks?

The only conceivable difference I can imagine now is the effect of the protest vote. I have a suspicion that, in many elections, a significant minority of people vote to 'send a message' to a governing party that they may otherwise prefer but feel has disappointed them in some ways. Protest votes seem to be a bit of a one-time use thing, so it may well be that some of Labor's votes this time around might flow back to the Coalition if an election were held tomorrow. As it is, Turnbull and his party have another three years to alienate even more people.

[Culprit]

[regan is true fullback]

A red letter day for social democrats and progressives, a small kick in the pants for Thatcherite public schoolboys, agrarian socialists, and the sort of people who suck up to rich kids in order to get them to take them on holidays.

Labour has won the seat of Herbert by eight votes, giving them the set of federal seats with weird names, including Batman, Lilley, Bruce and Burt.

Of course its like getting Leicester Square when the conservatives have Mayfair, Park Lane and all the stations, but it's a start, and will put pressure on the wafer thin majority of the Turnbull government, and have them more reliant on Katter, of all people...

We live in interesting times...

[Wokko]

That'll be a recount.

[David]

Indeed. But if Labor hold it, then the Coalition have just 76 seats – the slimmest majority possible. They'll be praying for no by-elections in close seats over the next three years.

[regan is true fullback]

The amazing seat of Herbert has turned up again. This time the Liberal candidate, Mr Jones, is ahead by a single vote. Not only that, but the Sheldon Cooper of the Liberal Party, George Brandis, has turned up as a Liberal scrutineer, trying to bully and obfiscate the count, and harass the poor old AEC folks who are just trying to do their job...

In the mean time 600 potential Liberal voters have been found wandering in the wilds of South Australia, on army manoeuvres, and unable to get to a polling place, or place an absentee vote. Should the seat go to the court of disputed returns and afterwards a by-election, those votes will be absolutely vital for the outcome. Not to mention all the folks who are back at work after the Qld school holidays.

There's more: to quote the Samuel Pepys Show "the Honourable Member is not looking too flash, and will probably cause a by-election quite soon..."

Maybe that's a bit extreme, many unfit Queenslanders have had long representative careers. But it does seem a bit Alanis Morrisette that a bloke whose prime function is to represent fit healthy folks with short haircuts, is not exactly in the peak of physical condition himself. Given that the peacefulness of the Turnbull government depends on no nasty surprises, the health of Mr Jones and other MPs is as vital as the mood of Mr Katter.

[David]

Senate results in Tasmania have just been published. As many predicted, Labor have ended up with 5, the Coalition 4, the Greens 2 and Lambie 1.

This was an interesting count because two sitting senators – Tourism minister Richard Colbeck (Liberals) and Lisa Singh (Labor) were both relegated to 'unwinnable' positions on their respective parties' senate tickets, but then both ran solid individual campaigns for below the line preferences. Singh was successful, leapfrogging the two Labor candidates above her, while Colbeck and the One Nation candidate both narrowly missed out on the last preference to the Greens' McKim.

Here's an article about Singh's remarkable achievement:

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-lisa-singh-beat-labors--machine-men-20160725-gqdf05.html

Kevin Bonham has been analysing the count closely – his blog is worth keeping an eye on as the results come in:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/

Now we await the five mainland states' results. No idea when they'll turn up, but shouldn't be more than a few days now hopefully.

[Culprit]

With the ALP winning Herbert by 37 votes, that gives the LNP a one seat majority. I can see the LNP spitting the dummy and heading to the courts to get that electorate to re vote or re count. Either way, it's desperate times.

[Jezza]

So the final results for the House of Representatives are:

Coalition = 76
Labor = 69
Greens = 1
Xenophon Team = 1
Katter's Australian = 1
Independents = 2
- 1). Andrew Wilkie
- 2). Cathy McGowan

In the Senate, the results so far are:

Coalition = 27 (likely to gain 3)
Labor = 24 (likely to gain 3)
Greens = 7 (likely to gain 1)
Xenophon Team = 3
One Nation = 1 (likely to gain 2)
Jacqui Lambie = 1
Derryn Hinch = 0 (likely to gain 1)

3 seats still remain in doubt.

[David]

This is what we have so far on the Senate results:

ACT, NT, Tas and WA have been declared. The results there are:

Coalition 11
Labor 11
Greens 4
Lambie 1
One Nation 1

States yet to be declared:
NSW: Coalition 4, Labor 4, Greens 1, Undecided 3 (likely Coalition 1, One Nation 1, LDP or Fred Nile 1)
Qld: Coalition 4, Labor 3, Greens 1, One Nation 1, Undecided 3 (likely Coalition 1, ALP 1, LDP or another minor party 1)
SA: Coalition 4, Labor 3, Xenophon 3, Greens 1, Undecided 1 (likely Labor or Family First 1)
Vic: Coalition 4, Labor 4, Greens 1, Hinch 1, Undecided 2 (likely Greens 1, Coalition or a minor party 1)

So the current tally is looking like:

Coalition 29 or 30 depending on the Victorian result
Labor 26 or 27 depending on South Australian result
Greens 9
Xenophon 3
One Nation 3
LDP 0, 1 or 2 depending on NSW and Queensland
Hinch 1
Lambie 1
And then any out of Family First, Fred Nile, the Sex Party or Animal Justice could snag a seat (but all unlikely).