Australian Federal Election 2016

David · I dare you to try Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda

Wilkie! No way. Didn't see that coming.

http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/wilkie-backs-turnbull-supply-confidence/news-story/8cf06fbf906c319dbd969836b5ec065d

Actually, I guess that's reasonable enough.

Wokko · Come and take it. Joined: 04 Oct 2005

Pies4shaw · pies4shaw Joined: 08 Oct 2007

They're going to have a majority without him, so he's just trying to curry some favour. No harm in that.

Dave The Man · Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:03 pm

stui magpie · Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:56 pm

Jezza · 2023 PREMIERS! Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End

ABC predicting that the Coalition will reach 76 seats by winning the seats of Flynn and Capricornia. Labor is predicted to win Cowan, Herbert and Hindmarsh narrowly putting them up to 69 seats.

Therefore the House of Reps will most likely consist of:

Coalition 76
Labor 69
Greens 1
Xenophon 1
Katter 1
Independents 2
- Andrew Wilkie
- Cathy McGowan

David · I dare you to try Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda

Sounds about right, Jezza. Although they'll no longer need the assurances from Katter and McGowan if that comes to pass, they might yet come in handy if they face a by-election or a defection from the ranks. Hardly the most comfortable territory for Turnbull to be in (and that's provided he becomes the first prime minister since Howard to survive a full term).

Pies4shaw · pies4shaw Joined: 08 Oct 2007

Turnbull has claimed "victory" and Shorten has conceded, if anybody still cares.

Culprit · Joined: 06 Feb 2003 Location: Port Melbourne

stui magpie · Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2016 7:10 pm

David · I dare you to try Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda

Hindmarsh has actually been relatively stable over the last few day � indeed, the count has actually started to swing back Labor's way. Still close, but I'm guessing they'll hold that and Cowan, and still have a bit of a buffer left in Herbert. It's certainly not out of the question they could hold all three.

Flynn and Capricornia look like wins for the Liberals at this stage, but let's not forget that they still need to get through absentee and overseas votes. Postal votes are favouring the Coalition, but absentees sometimes swing the other way. If the ABC still consider them to be in doubt, then I'll back their judgement. So while I think the Coalition will have a majority, I don't think a hung parliament is totally out of the question even at this point.

Culprit · Joined: 06 Feb 2003 Location: Port Melbourne

Interesting both Turdbull and Shortman say that the Government has a mandate. A mandate to do what actually? Throw in Shortman said they will help the Government Shocked

Let's see how long that lasts. The arrogance of the LNP is even greater now and it will be interesting how the polls trend later this year.

Pies4shaw · pies4shaw Joined: 08 Oct 2007

You'd like to think that what the ALP has in mind is that it will support the Government in the Senate on the passage of important Bills that get passed in the Reps, rather than allow Hanson any say in things.

Wokko · Come and take it. Joined: 04 Oct 2005

Pies4shaw · pies4shaw Joined: 08 Oct 2007

You really think there's enough angry, paranoid, stupid people out there to double that vote?

It's much more likely that some significant number of the people who voted that way a week ago will realise that, in the calm light of day, they don't want someone sillier than a stoned tree kangaroo representing them.

The problem with One Nation is that it doesn't stand for anything sensible. It's just "against" things. That's not a swipe at conservative politics, generally, it's an observation about that "party" specifically. Radical incoherence is, in our country at least, not typically a means of maintaining a supporter base.