Australian Federal Election 2016

[HAL]

You don't say.

[David]

South Australian results are in, and Family First's Bob Day got back in ahead of Labor. One bit of deadwood the Senate could have done without.

(Update: 3rd of August. Victorian Senators have also been announced.)

ACT, NT, SA, Tas, Vic and WA have now been declared. The results there are:

Coalition 20
Labor 18
Greens 7
Xenophon 3
Hinch 1
Lambie 1
One Nation 1
Family First 1

States yet to be declared:
NSW: Coalition 4, Labor 4, Greens 1, Undecided 3 (likely Coalition 1, One Nation 1, LDP or Fred Nile 1)
Qld: Coalition 4, Labor 3, Greens 1, One Nation 1, Undecided 3 (likely Coalition 1, ALP 1, LDP or another minor party 1)

So the current tally is now looking like:

Coalition 30
Labor 26
Greens 9
One Nation 3 or 4 depending on Queensland
Xenophon 3
LDP 0, 1 or 2 depending on NSW and Queensland
Hinch 1
Lambie 1
Family First 1 or 2 depending on Queensland
Christian Democrats a slim chance of a seat in NSW

[Culprit]

The Greens as predicted will hold the balance of power. I prefer that than Pauline and Hunch.

[HAL]

You like that than Pauline and Hunch.

[David]

Final results are in: Queensland has elected a second One Nation senator, and NSW have elected one as well, while David Leyonhjelm was returned in NSW.

The final tally is:
Coalition 30
Labor 26
Greens 9
One Nation 4
Xenophon 3
Family First 1
LDP 1
Lambie 1
Hinch 1

The government needs 39 votes to pass a bill, while 38 is enough to block it. Given that they will already need One Nation's vote (along with two out of four of Bob Day, David Leyonhjelm, Jacqui Lambie and Derryn Hinch) for every single bill not passed by the Greens or Labor before they even get to the point of negotiating with Xenophon, the true balance of power lies with him. If he wants to team up with the Greens and Labor to block any piece of legislation (as he did the vast majority of the time in the last parliament), then it will be blocked.

[Culprit]

[Jezza]

Happy to see the LDP retain a spot in the Senate.

Thanks for posting the final results, David.

[Pies4shaw]

Based on today's reports about section 18C of the RDA, it does appear that the LDP senator can read - it seems he understands at least one aspect of the first limb. Presumably, in due course, he will find time to read all the way to the end of the section - or perhaps some kind, literate senator will tell him what's in the other bits.

[Jezza]

[David]

I suspect there'll be a challenge, but really hard to know which way the court's decision will go. My understanding is that there'll be a by-election if sufficient doubt exists.

[think positive]

Is this the longest election in history?!

[Culprit]

Newly elected One Nation senator Rod Culleton has been arrested by police after handing himself in as he tries to have a larceny conviction overturned in court. The One Nation senator who is due to appear in Parliament for the first time later this month was arrested and placed into police custody while the warrant was formally processed.

[Pies4shaw]

Look, it's just harassment of patriots (allegedly larcenous ones - but patriots all the same).

[David]

While the prevailing view is that the seat will go to the next One Nation candidate on the ticket, some experts are suggesting a full recount may be required.

[Pies4shaw]

Why is that the "prevailing view"? They obviously didn't ask a (competent) constitutional lawyer before that became the "prevailing view". Perhaps there is some principle I missed that's about just running down a party's list of candidates until we find someone who hasn't been convicted of a serious crime? If they haven't actually been elected - because they are ineligible for election, they can't be replaced with a candidate from the same party.

It's probably all moot, though, since the likely outcome of the electoral maths is that the next One Nation candidate will have more or less the same quota, assuming that people who voted for this person probably voted for the party, rather than the particular chap concerned (although that won't always be the case).