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Dave The Man 
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| David wrote: | I reckon the Coalition are going to get a majority, unfortunately. They're on 73 now with 6 seats in play. One of those, Forde, is pretty much in the bag for them, and Labor is holding Hindmarsh by barely 100 votes – and the postal vote trend has been heavily leaning towards the Coalition there.
So that's 75, and then there are four seats with the ALP ahead by margins between 50.3 and 50.6%. I'd be very surprised at this stage if the Coalition didn't get to 76. |
Libs get Majority then my Above Post Stands 
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I am Da Man |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| David wrote: | I reckon the Coalition are going to get a majority, unfortunately. They're on 73 now with 6 seats in play. One of those, Forde, is pretty much in the bag for them, and Labor is holding Hindmarsh by barely 100 votes – and the postal vote trend has been heavily leaning towards the Coalition there.
So that's 75, and then there are four seats with the ALP ahead by margins between 50.3 and 50.6%. I'd be very surprised at this stage if the Coalition didn't get to 76. |
Yeah, I had a look at the numbers today, hey could easily end up with 78 seats plus the mad katter which covers the house of reps.
Doesn't make the senate any easier to navigate though.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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^ They only need 76 for an absolute majority, Stui – Katter et al only come into play if they win 75 or less.
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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76 for a majority, minus electing a speaker for the house which unless they get an independant takes it back to 75.
You need 76 for a mandate to govern, you need at least 77 to be able to govern.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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I don't think that's correct – there are 150 seats, so if it's 76-74 then taking the speaker out of the equation still preserves a majority of one. I'm pretty sure that's how it goes.
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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| You're right David. Also Katter is backing the Coalition, so they need 74. Have 73 according to the ABC website. |
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Culprit 
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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The LNP still have to deal with the Senate. Senator Hanson may get her Anti Islam commission up and running along with surveillance at Muslim Schools.
Bob the nut Katter, "has warned his support would evaporate at the first hint of union bashing, making Turnbull's pursuit of the supposedly central trigger bills on union control, untenable".
The LNP are basically hamstrung heading into this term of Government. We may have a double dissolution election called again. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| Wokko wrote: | | You're right David. Also Katter is backing the Coalition, so they need 74. Have 73 according to the ABC website. |
Still need 75 with Katter – 74 brings McGowan or Sharkie into play.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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| Listening to Senator James Paterson on 774 all I can say what an absolute IPA flog. If he is the quality the LNP are hanging their hat on then they are doomed. |
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Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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With the Bloody Libs winning.
Australia keep going down the Shithole
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I am Da Man |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| Culprit wrote: | | Listening to Senator James Paterson on 774 all I can say what an absolute IPA flog. If he is the quality the LNP are hanging their hat on then they are doomed. |
I actually made the effort to drop him about 10 places below the other Liberals when I was filling out below the line. Did the same with Stephen Conroy.
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Latest update: Flynn, which wasn't even in play a couple of days ago (it had been called for Labor) is all of a sudden dead on 50% – postal vote viciously swinging towards the Liberal Party. Something similar has happened with Capricornia, another one that Labor seemed to have control of but is now only held by a slim majority. And Hindmarsh is still stuck on 50% slightly Labor's way, with only about 100 votes in it.
The Liberals only need two of those (plus Forde, where they lead on 50.3% now) to get a majority. I think they'll make it easily now.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| David wrote: | Latest update: Flynn, which wasn't even in play a couple of days ago (it had been called for Labor) is all of a sudden dead on 50% – postal vote viciously swinging towards the Liberal Party. Something similar has happened with Capricornia, another one that Labor seemed to have control of but is now only held by a slim majority. And Hindmarsh is still stuck on 50% slightly Labor's way, with only about 100 votes in it.
The Liberals only need two of those (plus Forde, where they lead on 50.3% now) to get a majority. I think they'll make it easily now. |
6 seats in doubt on the AEC website and all 6 could go either way, but with the trend on postal votes all 6 could also go to the LNP.
I reckon there'll be a recount called for in a few seats considering the small size of the margins
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| This underestimation of the conservative strength of the postal vote has been happening in "knife-edge" Federal elections since I was a child. You'd think they'd be able to correct for it by now - it isn't actually statistically difficult. As recently as mid-yesterday-morning, the ABC was predicting that the LNP would finish with 73 or 74 seats. |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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| Wilkie and McGowan both backing Turnbull. It's over. |
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