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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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| Great, we've got 3 more years of Moderate Malcolm and then the Labor left will take over. Who's going to Make Australia Great Again? Where's our Trump? Our Boris? Our Farage? |
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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I expect the Liberals to retain government with a smaller majority in the lower house but they won't hold the balance of power in both houses. I think they'll lose about 8 to 10 seats in the lower house but it won't be enough for Labor to form government.
The big winners will be the minor parties in the Senate in my opinion.
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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| If the LDP end up with the balance of power (or at least a share of it) I'd be very, very happy. |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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| Wokko wrote: | | If the LDP end up with the balance of power (or at least a share of it) I'd be very, very happy. |
Same here.
Someone has to "keep the bastards honest" 
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Morrigu 
Joined: 11 Aug 2001
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I'm voting for the AJP and the Greens - I so hope they get enough votes to be able stop live exports!!!
Oh and I want desperately for tomato head Barnaby to be voted out - slimy dishonest oxygen thief creep 
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“The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated.” |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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My wishlist: overall, a hung parliament with Labor forming government the Greens holding the balance of power in the lower house and sharing it with the Sex Party and Xenophon in the upper house.
More specifically:
David Feeney to lose his seat to the Greens in Batman
Jason Ball to knock off the sitting Liberal MP in Higgins
Peter Dutton to lose his seat. Don't care how.
Bandt to hold Melbourne
Sex Party to win their first Senate seat
Derryn Hinch to not win a Senate seat
None of the far-right upper house candidates like Hanson to get in
Windsor to send Bananaby packing
Xenophon to pick up a couple of extra seats in both houses.
McGowan to hold Indi
Ricky Muir to get re-elected
Michael Danby to lose to the Greens in Melbourne Ports (somewhat less likely)
Oakeshott to win his seat too (even though he says he'll back Turnbull)
How many of those do you reckon I'll get?
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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| David wrote: | My wishlist: overall, a hung parliament with Labor forming government the Greens holding the balance of power in the lower house and sharing it with the Sex Party and Xenophon in the upper house.
More specifically:
David Feeney to lose his seat to the Greens in Batman
Jason Ball to knock off the sitting Liberal MP in Higgins
Peter Dutton to lose his seat. Don't care how.
Bandt to hold Melbourne
Sex Party to win their first Senate seat
Derryn Hinch to not win a Senate seat
None of the far-right upper house candidates like Hanson to get in
Windsor to send Bananaby packing
Xenophon to pick up a couple of extra seats in both houses.
McGowan to hold Indi
Ricky Muir to get re-elected
Michael Danby to lose to the Greens in Melbourne Ports (somewhat less likely)
Oakeshott to win his seat too (even though he says he'll back Turnbull)
How many of those do you reckon I'll get? |
Hopefully just Muir. |
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Culprit 
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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This will be quite an interesting election. My perception is people have made up their mind and have actually switched off. The amount of advertising the LNP and ALP are pumping out works in reverse. On one commercial break last night we had 5 LNP adverts and 1 ALP advert. After that point I switched to Foxtel and surprise more advertising. A Blitzkrieg of Bulltish. People are just switching off.
Turdbull will remain as PM with more hostile Senators in the upper house. A Double Dissolution Election may be called again in 3 years.  |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| nomadjack wrote: | | Betting markets tend to follow the polls and are no more reliable. I picked the libs to win between 74-76 seats about 4 weeks ago and still think that's how things will end up. Turnbull minority govt with support from McGowan and maybe Katter. |
Sorry, incorrect. Betting markets change with weight of money and have nothing to do with polls 
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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Turdbull could win the election but still lose. That is what makes this election interesting. Shortman needs to how many seats to remain as opposition leader?
Either way, I won't be watching any election shows um OK I may if I can't sleep. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| Wokko wrote: | | Great, we've got 3 more years of Moderate Malcolm and then the Labor left will take over. Who's going to Make Australia Great Again? Where's our Trump? Our Boris? Our Farage? |
I think Clive Palmer has already had his moment in the sun, Wokko.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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nomadjack
Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Location: Essendon
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| Skids wrote: | | nomadjack wrote: | | Betting markets tend to follow the polls and are no more reliable. I picked the libs to win between 74-76 seats about 4 weeks ago and still think that's how things will end up. Turnbull minority govt with support from McGowan and maybe Katter. |
Sorry, incorrect. Betting markets change with weight of money and have nothing to do with polls |
Yes, but the punters and therefore the markets largely follow the polls. There's actually a fair amount of research that's been done on this. Kevin Bonham and Peter Brent who are both pretty sharp election nerds talk about it in the article below:http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/are-the-punters-better-than-the-pollsters-at-predicting-elections-20160528-gp64e9.html |
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nomadjack
Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Location: Essendon
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| Sorry David, but I reckon 1, 4, 9, and 10 are your onky real hopes. Think Windsor will just miss out. Let Senate seat in Vic will be either hinch or sex party and Hanson will probably jag the final spot in Alabama |
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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I don't want the Greens to win any seats in the lower house - mere spoilers & their presence makes it less likely for the ALP to win. I hope they lose Melbourne as well. The Senate is another matter & that is where they belong although they're not likely to have my vote this time 'round (they have before).
I share Keating's view on the Greens 
..."They're a bunch of opportunistic Trots hiding behind a gum tree trying to pretend they're the Labor Party,"
"The Labor Party is not a protest party, it is a party of government. And that's what the Greens have never understood. They're a protest party, they're not a party of government,....
The Labor Party has "completely remodelled the country" through its economic and social reforms.
"And yet we have the Greens saying that they are the natural home of progressive, mainstream Australia. Really? How pathetic."
I want Danby to win in Melbourne Ports because it seems the Greens might get up there.
I used to be in Melbourne Ports until a redistribution has put quite a few South Caulfield residents in the scumbag Libs safe seat of Todd Goldstein. Danby will have lost a few votes. Still, I wont be voting for the fundamentalist nutters of the IPA - Tim Wilson beat Downers Daughter to get pre selection here for the scumbag Libs.
Can we vote at the MCG on Saturday?
Keating's quotes were from the SMH online 25/6/16
(I know Dr Pie will disagree with me on the above)
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| nomadjack wrote: | | Sorry David, but I reckon 1, 4, 9, and 10 are your onky real hopes. Think Windsor will just miss out. Let Senate seat in Vic will be either hinch or sex party and Hanson will probably jag the final spot in Alabama |
You're probably right on that. Still, it'll be fun to watch!
| watt price tully wrote: | | I don't want the Greens to win any seats in the lower house - mere spoilers & their presence makes it less likely for the ALP to win. |
How on earth did you come to that conclusion?
| watt price Tully wrote: | I share Keating's view on the Greens
..."They're a bunch of opportunistic Trots hiding behind a gum tree trying to pretend they're the Labor Party,"
"The Labor Party is not a protest party, it is a party of government. And that's what the Greens have never understood. They're a protest party, they're not a party of government,....
The Labor Party has "completely remodelled the country" through its economic and social reforms.
"And yet we have the Greens saying that they are the natural home of progressive, mainstream Australia. Really? How pathetic."
...
Keating's quotes were from the SMH online 25/6/16
(I know Dr Pie will disagree with me on the above) |
The only pathetic thing was Keating's comments. Just goes to show how out of touch he is take the tired old 'watermelon' slur at the beginning of that quote (did he get that from The Australian?). Just puerile stuff designed to wring cheap laughs from the true believers.
Any political observer who is actually seriously interested in these matters will note that the Greens have been in an evolutionary process over the last couple of decades from a party of environmental (and occasionally socialist) radicals to a mainstream centre-left social liberal party a move solidified under Di Natale's leadership, much to the dismay of actual Trotskyists, who have absolutely no love for the Greens these days. This kind of ideological development is hardly unique: Labor, too, has shifted from a vaguely socialist working man's party to a vaguely reformist neo-liberal outfit for unionists and career politicians.
There's no shame in that remodelling (well, not much) Labor under Hawke and Keating transferred Australia into the modern economy we have today, and they and their acolytes in Rudd and Gillard have generally been able to run a steady ship, as I expect Shorten will if he gets in. But none of that has anything to do with social progress; it's simply about day to day functionality. We need that, but we also need people who can push back against the inequalities of a functional capitalist system, speak up for the marginalised and present some vision for the future. Labor in its current form has failed on all those counts, and that's where the Greens have effectively stepped into the breach.
What terrifies Labor people is that the Greens have been slowly becoming a party of government, not just a party of protest. That makes them a real long-term existential threat. That's why the ALP's attacks are getting so shrill and desperate, and why they're increasingly relying on cartoony insults in an attempt to discredit the Greens. They know that the Greens are a party with clear values, whereas many people are left wondering what Labor stands for any more. If I were to give ALP people some advice, it would be to stop the slander and actually get used to a long-term coalition of sorts with the Greens. Because they aren't going anywhere.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace
Last edited by David on Thu Jun 30, 2016 3:31 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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