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Australian Federal Election 2016

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:06 am
Post subject: Australian Federal Election 2016Reply with quote

It seems weird that we've so far managed to spend 38 pages talking about an election on the other side of the world, and only made passing comments about our own one – which, in all likelihood, will occur much sooner. So, let's start things off with an unexpected tie in the polls:

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/22/support-for-turnbull-slumps-as-labor-and-coalition-deadlocked-in-newspoll

The Turnbull honeymoon is well and truly over now. Not sure anyone would have seen that coming a few months ago (although they're still doing far better in the polls than they were under Abbott). Perhaps announcing a couple of actual policies is working for Labor?

There's a lot of talk about a double dissolution in July. A lot of that will depend on whether Turnbull can get his Senate reform bills through on time:

http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/02/19/poll-bludger-a-double-dissolution-on-the-cards-for-july/

And, most importantly, there are the policies. We have a Coalition government that spent the first two years of its life as one of the most inept and disastrous governments in the country's history, attempting to implement an austerity budget in far-from-desperate economic times and attacking civil liberties all over the place with a raft of draconian anti-terror and anti-asylum seeker policies. And we have a Labor opposition that has given its silent assent to most of the worst authoritarian excesses while, with the assistance of senate crossbenchers, blocking most of the government's economic agenda.

Both parties have had a facelift: a new prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has promised to take the government into more moderate and respectable territory while actually changing little of his predecessor's policy platform (perhaps we should be thankful for the things he hasn't done). Meanwhile, Bill Shorten, long a massive joke to the electorate, has recently tried to remodel the opposition as a party of substance. We'll see how that one works out.

It's not only the major parties who have rebranded themselves. The Greens have a new leader in Richard Di Natale and an aggressive new agenda to market themselves as the party less of anti-logging protestors than of small-l social liberal policy (the change is mostly aesthetic; they've been headed this way for a long time). Meanwhile, the National Party have embraced their more eccentric side by electing Barnaby Joyce as leader, in an attempt to portray themselves as dissidents within the Coalition, not just the Liberal Party's lapdogs.

Finally, there is the crossbench: a collection of eight mostly wacky (and, with the exception of Nick Xenophon) right-wing individuals who have effectively taken down one prime minister and are threatening to sink the whole ship if the government passes its senate reform bill.

We may not have a Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders here, but that doesn't mean things aren't going to get interesting. The 2016 Australian federal election: who will win? Who should win? Where is your vote going? Let's hear it.

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:24 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Is the Honeymoon over?

Is the Mad Misogynist Monk & his Miner Mates still working behind the scenes to bring the Point Piper PM down?

Is the latest Newspoll a trend, an indication or fact?: 2 party preferred at 50:50

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-deadlock-as-coalition-and-alp-split-5050-pms-honeymoon-ends/news-story/15027d67c2a668c2862ee034447d7121

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Lazza 



Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:07 pm
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Don't tell me that Shorten will suddenly become electable??? Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

Will he win because he is the least disliked??? Shocked

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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne

PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:02 pm
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If the Born to Rule mob call a double dissolution I would not be surprised as they are very arrogant. Rich v Poor is a win for the ALP and the more the current clowns talk about what they wish to take away from Joe Public and not touch the big end of town the better Shorten looks.

Negative Gearing's an interesting one as there is a lot of votes. As someone who grew up with Politics in their family I am very disillusioned by the current Politicians. They are only interested in what's in it for them and remaining in power.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:22 pm
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Lazza wrote:
Don't tell me that Shorten will suddenly become electable??? Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

Will he win because he is the least disliked??? Shocked


No, Shorten still trails as preferred PM 21 to 55

Labour has only gained 1 point in the primary vote, the rest of the 2 party preferred increase comes from the Greens and others.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-22/newspoll-support-for-turnbull-government-drops/7188518

It'll be interesting to see how Labor's tactics work. Releasing policy wasy out from the election has positives and negatives.

The positive is that they can get a bounce in the polls now, they get to test their policies in public and teak it as required prior before the election and can take the refined version to the polls.

The negative is that a bounce now doesn't mean much unless they can maintain it. If the coalition comes out with another dud budget they can capitalise and push further, but if not and the government has some lollies up their sleeve for the campaign proper it could all be lost in the smoke.

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Dave The Man Scorpio



Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:45 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

stui magpie wrote:
Lazza wrote:
Don't tell me that Shorten will suddenly become electable??? Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

Will he win because he is the least disliked??? Shocked


No, Shorten still trails as preferred PM 21 to 55

Labour has only gained 1 point in the primary vote, the rest of the 2 party preferred increase comes from the Greens and others.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-22/newspoll-support-for-turnbull-government-drops/7188518

It'll be interesting to see how Labor's tactics work. Releasing policy wasy out from the election has positives and negatives.

The positive is that they can get a bounce in the polls now, they get to test their policies in public and teak it as required prior before the election and can take the refined version to the polls.

The negative is that a bounce now doesn't mean much unless they can maintain it. If the coalition comes out with another dud budget they can capitalise and push further, but if not and the government has some lollies up their sleeve for the campaign proper it could all be lost in the smoke.


Then the Liberals can keep stuffing then Country up and Shitting on the Poor and Needy

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005


PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:05 pm
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You think all the latte sipping Chardonnay socialists of the Green and Labor parties care about the poor and needy? The game is fixed either way. Still waiting for someone to Make Australia Great Again.
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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:09 pm
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Still how long? Do you think it will take a long time?
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:19 pm
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Wokko wrote:
You think all the latte sipping Chardonnay socialists of the Green and Labor parties care about the poor and needy? .



Slightly more than any of the leaders in the allegedly socialist/communist countries who live the high live while the masses cop it in the arse, around similar to most of their counterparts in the current government.

Personally I think the whole "born to rule" schtick is a hangover from 50's English socialism which has no application here and never genuinely has in the last 100 years.

Gotta have propaganda on both sides of the fence to try to make a point of difference. Wink

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Dave The Man Scorpio



Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:16 pm
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Wokko wrote:
You think all the latte sipping Chardonnay socialists of the Green and Labor parties care about the poor and needy? The game is fixed either way. Still waiting for someone to Make Australia Great Again.


Labor most likely might need Greens to win the Election

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:45 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

^

The Greens won't help Labor win an election, if it's a split decision like when Gillard won, an alliance with the Greens may help them form government but I think that's unlikely at this stage.

What's more interesting is the Libs proposed reforms to the Senate voting system.

I support it, and so do the Greens, because it's more representational and stops the current rigging where a fringe party can get a senate seat with fuckall of the vote sue to preference deals.

The flipped side is it will make the major parties stronger in the senate and more able to get a majority in both houses which itself is a two edged sword and not a situation we're very used to. Could open things right up, for better or worse.

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Dave The Man Scorpio



Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:32 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
^

The Greens won't help Labor win an election, if it's a split decision like when Gillard won, an alliance with the Greens may help them form government but I think that's unlikely at this stage.

What's more interesting is the Libs proposed reforms to the Senate voting system.

I support it, and so do the Greens, because it's more representational and stops the current rigging where a fringe party can get a senate seat with fuckall of the vote sue to preference deals.

The flipped side is it will make the major parties stronger in the senate and more able to get a majority in both houses which itself is a two edged sword and not a situation we're very used to. Could open things right up, for better or worse.


Then it be hard to keep the Pricks Honest

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:19 am
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stui magpie wrote:
It'll be interesting to see how Labor's tactics work. Releasing policy wasy out from the election has positives and negatives.

And, ironically, is still way too late for me. Any party and leader which suddenly "announces" a position, as if pulling a mystery prize from a hat, isn't serious.

Turnbull has much more of an excuse for not revealing his hand because he's dealing with post-Abbott loons (a task I seem to rate as much more valuable than other progressives—David?). Shorten, meanwhile, is dealing with a lengthy policy vacuum, due to (a) the ALP's fossilisation and mere role as a leg up for insiders, and (b) Abbott's singular ability to wreck serious politics and rouse the idiots stuck in the mediasphere who mistake smashing windows for a sense of genuine control over their lives.

On the tactics of campaigning to which you refer, now that Turnbull is in leadership, policy matters again, so releasing policy early is a good strategy for Shorten if he's good enough to package and sell something that makes sense of where the country is at (I don't think he can, and it's too little too late for me, but...).

Much more important than the tactics, though, for the good of the country Turnbull has to win outright on his policy merit and general sanity, further putting reason at the centre of political life again. That means engaging in vigorous contemporary policy discussion, and leaving the 1950s cliches to which you refer above behind. That requires someone to release policies early, so for the country I'm pleased Shorten has done so, even if for completely narrow and visionless reasons.

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Skids Cancer

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:13 am
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Labor haven't got a snow flakes chance in hell.
Shorten is one of the biggest knobs to ever hold the leaders position.

The punters are spot on here with the ALP at 5/1 and the coalition at 1/10 on.

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:16 pm
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At least with a double dissolution illiterate Liberal party supporters in NSW won't be voting for Lleyonholm this time round in the upper house 😉 with apologies to the "real" Rake.
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