Mighty Magpie's 2016 Preview

MightyMagpie · Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA

Interesting reviews here (fantasy perspective) of Phillips and Crocker: https://www.hightail.com/download/ZWJYYkJxU1BOMUFLSk5Vag

jackcass · Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Location: Bendigo

MightyMagpie · Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA

Just started reading my 2016 AFL Prospectus.

I'll probably add some thoughts after I've devoured it, but for now just this tidbit fro Champion Data: "The tide has turned for the Magpies, so fans who kept the faith should be rewarded over the next five seasons.".

Lazza · Joined: 04 Feb 2003 Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

MightyMagpie · Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA

A few observations following my first read through the AFL Prospectus:

- Further to my tidbit above, the authors go on to provide an excuse: "For now they aren't a premiership threat and missing out on the finals for the third straight season isn't as disastrous as many people think. It's all about 2018.". I'm sure that quote will tempt some to comment!

- I've been critical of our forward line crumbing. To my surprise we have a few highly rated ground ball get players in the forward line aleady: Blair (above average, also above average for marks inside 50!); Fasolo (elite, also elite for marks inside 50!); Moore (elite); and Broomhead (above average for groundball gets, but poor for marks). Elliott only rates as average for ground ball gets (but elite for marks). We probably have more to work with there than I had given credit for.

- Grundy averaged 3 score launches per game and involvement in 5 scoring chains per game (both above average for ruck position).

- CD question Aish - "As a junior, his kicking was a feature of his game, but this hasn't carried through to the top-level.".

- We (at least I) have probably focussed a lot on the weaknesses/negatives. Looking at strengths:

Adams (elite for disposals and above average for contested possessions, uncontested possessions, pressure points, score involvements, score assists and clearances.

Blair (elite for tackles, above average for score assists, score involvements, forward half pressure points, pressure acts, groundball gets inside 50 and marks inside 50. Underrated.

more to come ...

MightyMagpie · Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA

Brown ranked #1 of top 50 defending leads, allowing opponents to mark only 61% of the time (vs AFL average of 85%), ranked #4 of top 50 defensive players in one-on-ones, losing only 16%. Conceded 24 goals in 21 games. Excellent lockdown defender, but not an interceptor providing drive out of the backline.

CD Collingwood top 25 rankings (some will surprise):

Pendles #1 (#2 in AFL)
Treloar #2 (#27)
Sidebottom #3 (#41)
Swan #4 (#75)
Elliott #5 (#113)
Blair #6 (#125)
Williams #7 (#130)
Howe #8 (#147)
Langdon #9 (#148)
Crisp #10 (#167)
Varcoe #11 (#178)
Greenwood #12 (#202)
White #13 (#210)
Adams #14 (#219)
Cloke #15 (#220)
Goldsack #16 (#234)
Grundy #17 (#247)
Witts #18 (#258)
Fasolo #19 (#263)
Toovey #20 (#283)
Aish #21 (#284)
Frost #22 (#293)
Broomhead #23 (#372)
Brown #24 (#398)
Oxley #25 (#403)

CD have predicted that Swan and Goldsack will drop off in 2016 and that Adams, Grundy, Broomhead, Aish and DeGoey will all improve.

MightyMagpie · Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA

Pendles being used across half back in today's match simulation (as I mooted in the original post). Could be interesting given our midfield depth and flexibility who ends up playing where.

MightyMagpie · Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA

My best 22 (post the intra-club game):

Ruck: I'd have Witts 209/111 just ahead of Grundy 203/102 on the intra-club performance, but I suspect we will play both and NAB may change the pecking order anyway. Re round 1 if Tippett 202/108 is rucking with Sinclair 200/99. I don't think Cox did enough to pose a threat at this early stage.

Mids: Pendles, Swan, Sidey, Greenwood, Adams and Varcoe pretty much pick themselves for me. De Goey made a great case for a spot in the intra-club. Crisp, who was rested in the intra-club, is also a pretty certain starter I would think. The next closest to selection for me are Macaffer, Aish and Oxley. Aish's disposal wasn't great early in the intra-club, but did improve. Oxley got a fair bit of it, but disposal was suspect. Macaffer was solid enough.

Key forwards: Nice stats for Gault in the intra-club, but he would need to back that up to threaten selection. I think Cloke looked good roaming up the field (so CHF) and Moore looked handy enough to get selection ahead of White based on performance and potential. If we play two rucks, I doubt we will see Cloke, Moore and White all in the same team.

Other forwards: I seem to be alone (or at least in a minority), but I thought Fasolo was great in the intra-club. Ran hard and got a lot of it and he hit the scoreboard. Definite starter for mine. Blair worked hard, but hitting the scoreboard consistently will be the challenge for him - no shots on goal in the intra-club. I thought Broomhead showed enough to probably grab the last forward spot. Surprised that we didn't get to see Crocker. I hope he makes an appearance in the NAB games.

Key backs: How good was it seeing Ben Reid patrolling across half-back? We look a different team with him. Brown didn't have his best game, but after his 2015 he is a certain starter.

Other backs: With Goldsack likely injured for the early part of the season, I see a possible spot for Frost if the coach doesn't have confidence in Toovey or Langdon holding down a tall. I suspect Langdon may rove a little more freely so it may come down to Toovey or Frost depending on the opponent. We didn't see Williams, but he is a certain starter for mine and I think Ramsay shoed enough in 2015 and the intra-club to be the front-runner for the last spot.

Kick outs: I'm guessing Pendles, Langdon and Sidey could be the go to guys for this. I enjoyed watching Reid get on the end of several of the kick outs in the intra-club.

19 Feb Best 22 (assuming Shazza, Treloar, Goldsack and Howe unavailable)

B: Ramsay Brown Frost/Toovey
HB: Langdon Reid Williams
C: Sidebottom Crisp Pendlebury
R: Witts Greenwood Adams
HF: Elliott Cloke Fasolo
F: Broomhead Moore Blair

Int: Grundy De Goey Varcoe Swan

If Treloar is fully fit and available then he plays, but it is a tough call as to who he would replace.

Who do I want to see in NAB1? The borderline selections and young kids:
Frost
Toovey
Oxley
Aish
Macaffer
Sinclair
Gault
Maynard
Marsh
Goodyear
Phillips
Smith
Crocker
Wyatt
Cox
Golds
Wills
Sier

Exposing the youngsters early in NAB will obviously mean resting a few of the locks.

MightyMagpie · Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA

I'll be putting up a reasonably detailed review of the preseason to date in the next 48 hours (hopefully).

MightyMagpie · Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA

And here it is:

http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?p=1656410#1656410

Jezza · 2023 PREMIERS! Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End

MightyMagpie might want to add this to his preview but for some context here is the list strength of 2016 and the average age - average games for each team before the 2016 season had commenced.

This is according to AFL prospectus but I obtained this information watching Fox Footy when the 'experts' previewed the seasons of all 18 teams back in March. Considering our current position, it's clearly evident that we're underachieving if this data is to be taken seriously.

List Strength
1. Hawthorn (6th hardest draw)
2. West Coast (10th hardest draw)
3. Fremantle (5th hardest draw)
4. Sydney (9th hardest draw)
5. Port Adelaide (14th hardest draw)
6. Geelong (15th hardest draw)
7. Collingwood (11th hardest draw)
8. Richmond (3rd hardest draw)
9. North Melbourne (Hardest draw)
10. Western Bulldogs (12th hardest draw)
11. GWS (7th hardest draw)
12. Adelaide (2nd hardest draw)
13. Essendon (17th hardest draw)
14. Gold Coast (16th hardest draw) - 13th now
15. Melbourne (4th hardest draw) - 14th now
16. St.Kilda (18th hardest draw) - 15th now
17. Brisbane (8th hardest draw) - 16th now
18. Carlton (13th hardest draw) - 17th now

Due to the doping suspensions involving Essendon, their list strength is now 18th and all sides below them move up one spot.

Average Age - Average Games

1. Fremantle = 25.4 Years Old = 86.3 Games (3rd)
2. North Melbourne = 25.2 Years Old = 93.9 Games (1st)
3. Hawthorn = 24.8 Years Old = 86.6 Games (2nd)
4. Essendon = 24.7 Years Old = 75.5 Games (6th)
5. Geelong = 24.6 Years Old = 77.3 Games
6. West Coast = (6th oldest list) - (4th in games experience)
7. Sydney = 24.3 Years Old = 68.5 Games (10th)
8. Richmond = 24.3 Years Old = 71.0 Games (8th)
9. Port Adelaide = 24.1 Years Old = 72.9 Games (7th)
10. Carlton = 24.1 Years Old = 60.4 Games (12th)
11. Adelaide = 24.1 Years Old = 62.5 Games (11th)
12. Collingwood = 23.8 Years Old = 69.5 Games (9th)
13. St.Kilda = 23.8 Years Old = 60.2 Games (13th)
14. Western Bulldogs = 23.7 Years Old = 57.7 Games (15th)
15. Melbourne = 23.7 Years Old = 57.5 Games (16th)
16. Gold Coast = 23.5 Years Old = 59.1 Games (14th)
17. GWS = 23.3 Years Old = 56.9 Games (17th)
18. Brisbane = (Youngest List) - (18th in games experience)

I would assume that Essendon's average age and games experience hasn't changed too dramatically considering many of their top-up replacements consist of experienced senior players from other clubs such as James Kelly, Mathew Stokes and Ryan Crowley to name a few.