How many Syrian refugees should Australia take?

[pietillidie]

[stui magpie]

How exactly did unskilled migration resulting in increased numbers on welfare help keep them flexible and competitive?

That theory would only work if the migrants picked up work that wasn't already being done, therefore adding to the labour pool with all the associated benefits, like the European migration to Aus in the 50's

Bringing in massive numbers of people who then take from the system without giving back cannot possibly be a benefit overall. Even if their spending has an impact it's just laundering government money.

[pietillidie]

^Easily:

Take low-end jobs at a lower cost - tick
Help break down unions by being willing to work more cheaply and flexibly - tick
Push the people who once did those jobs into more productive jobs - tick
Have kids who fund future pension and quality of life commitments - tick

[stui magpie]

But if they go on welfare from the start, none of that happens and they drain the system.

Those 4 dot points (well, 3 out of 4) describe 1950's Aus, not Sweden.

[pietillidie]

^Did you even read the OECD doc on Sweden I linked to? Those points describe exactly what that document describes. You only seem to know the caricature of Sweden; it was the same across most successful developed economies, and Sweden was no exception, albeit a stronger version of the welfare state.

Without increased flexibility and internal competitiveness, Sweden would've been downgraded internationally and locked in poor productivity, more like a Greece or a Spain.

There is no free lunch under increased conditions of competition; you actually have to beat the competition to remain on top.

[Pi]

[stui magpie]

^

There's other low end jobs other than manufacturing.

I called into a servo near nagambie last weekend, the guy behind the counter was Indian.

Buy something big and heavy and get it delivered, I'll bet at least one of the people delivering are Maori or Indian.

But Migrants taking these low end jobs has zero impact on unions and doesn't push others up the value chain. To climb into higher value jobs first the jobs have to be there and second the people need the requisite skills to do them which doesn't happen by simply economic stimulation, magic or osmosis.

So what actually happens is the migrants (or at least some) take the jobs that the locals don't want to do. No new jobs created, minimal net growth and the flow on doesn't happen.

[pietillidie]

^Then you're stuffed, which is my point. The locals stay in those jobs, get overpaid for them, everyone gets less for their money, people get that bit lazier, and the economy gets downgraded internationally because the capital flows out at the other end looking for more productive pastures with better returns.

That was what I was trying to illustrate. It doesn't matter if your country is a snow white Aryan master race with zero immigration once your currency and financial system are global. Having no inflow of new capital, investment or human or otherwise, will simply guarantee a downgrade, along with your pension system and future quality of life.

In other words, the objective of economic management is the *upward mobility* version of flexibility: If people aren't coming through and moving on up, you've mismanaged the process.

And remember, we're talking about a process which began in the 1980s, not with the last lot or arrivals. 30 years and people still kick and scream and don't get it. Block every single immigrant and people's real wages will still be declining, and they still won't be able to afford a house, because they still don't understand it's not 1950 and billions of capable others out there in dozens of rising countries are now competing with them.

I have given my solution, but people have been turned into drooling idiots and still, in 2016, after a GFC and two failed wars, in a commodities downturn, facing international security threats and world people movements, with the likes of China and Brazil struggling, and unstable oil prices causing havoc, refuse to grasp the global economy and global competition.

The old story we told ourselves was a comfort tale that sort of worked for a while. We even told ourselves Sweden was different, when in fact on analysis it wasn't much different. Ironically, Koreans are already telling themselves similar comfort stories - even as China is being seen as too expensive for Korean manufacturers and they're looking further afield!

Pi, you've come in part way and have no idea what that part of the conversation was in aid of. It's part of a dialogue explaining economic value as a global flow given nations as entities can no longer contain capital. That post is not my solution, desire or even preferred way of framing the matter.

[Mugwump]

[pietillidie]

^Sorry, but the only serious studies on immigration show a worst-case of modest benefit. Your crazy zero-sum full bath economy, which neither you nor any economist on earth holds, but which you bizarrely propose when brown people panic grips you, is a joke.

Just tell people you have *zero* evidence of long-run harm to economies from immigration and population growth, and only evidence for the long-run necessity of immigration as populations grey. Admit it; explain to people *why* economies are not zero-sum games, and why population growth *does not* make economies poorer. Be honest, and stop miseducating people.

The fact is you're in a panic not just because brown-folk hysteria is spoiling your imaginings, but also because you know the revenue gap and the wealth gap are only going to worsen because there is no will or even mechanism to rein in mobile capital and its control of politics.

Go on, tell people why Google and Apple get to set their own tax rates and what that means for their quality of life. Stop BSing people with fairytales just to squeeze a couple of more decades out of the present order before leaving the social problems behind for everyone else. Explain to people that globalisation, along with declining military dominance, will smash their future life quality if the status quo which makes you feel all warm is not replaced by a new settlement between global players.

Tell people the brown people thing is a trivial distraction from the actual problem, namely that there's no will to arrest the revenue blowout because baby boomers are committed to wrecking the joint in a self-entitled smash and grab before they die, facilitated by their grip on politics and use of capital mobility to avoid paying their way.

Go on, tell people the facts and give them a shot at doing something about it, even if it doesn't benefit you in the near term.

[pietillidie]

Dbl.

[Mugwump]

^ Firstly, the repeated "brown people hysteria spoiling my imaginings" stuff is extremely low-quality and more than a little offensive. Like the vast majority of sane people, I detest racism and there is no racism at all in my opposition to mass migration. I think there is a pretty good chance that I have just as many mates who are of non-Anglo and non-white ethnicity as you do. So let's get that cheap, unpleasant and bullying slur out of the way.

The economic data on migration is certainly complex and varied. What is certain is that, in Britain, the House of Lords Economics Affairs Committee stated in its 2008 report that "We have found no evidence for the argument, made by the government, business and many others, that net immigration generates significant economic benefits for the existing UK population." Since the externalities of higher housing costs and infrastructural / environmental stress are likely to be unmeasured, it is both evidentially likely and common-sense that large-scale (mass) migration is a net negative for the resident population. Anyone from the working classes who uses a school where English is not the main spoken language in the classroom understands this problem vividly.

This is nothing to do with bathtub (zero-sum) economics - of course migrants create demand and supply capacity. However, the actual effects are a function of their ability to bring skills and growth-oriented capacities. If they create demand but add little to net supply capacity, then migration adds to the suppression of real wages that you deplore, economic disadvantage, welfare dependency and many other ills, not least racial tensions and resentments with society.

Balanced migration, managed with respect to skills, assets and genuine humanitarian need so that the newcomers add to the supply capacity of the economy, is almost certainly a net positive to the receiving country, and to humanity overall. Australia has managed this rather well, fortunately ; Europe has not, and the stresses are evident right across the continent.

Google and Apple's tax situations are, in this matter, something I'll leave to the red-herring fishermen.

[think positive]

good to see some good work coming out of religious groups:

"They were picked to be the first to be flown out of Lebanon to Italy as part of a new project co-organised by the Sant'Egidio Catholic community, the Federation of Evangelical Churches and the Valdese Evangelical Church.

"The little girl is seven years old, she has eye cancer and needs urgent care if she's not to lose the other eye too," head of immigration for the Sant'Egidio Catholic community Daniela Pompei told AFP."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-05/syrian-child-with-cancer-first-to-use-new-humanitarian-corridor/7142332

[watt price tully]

(Wasn't too sure where to post this) but this is a lovely story of a lot of people assisting the last Jews of Aleppo Syria. Remarkable

http://www.timesofisrael.com/the-stunning-tale-of-the-escape-of-aleppos-last-jews/

[Wokko]

The Jewish and Christian communities of the middle east have genocided over the last 50 years, even once thriving communities like Lebanese Christians and Egyptian Coptics have faced persecution and harassment. I would say that Israel is probably the last safe haven for either group now in that region (Not sure how welcoming Israel is to Arab Christians though).

The Region was Jewish and Christian long before it was Muslim, but it looks like, after 700 years of trying to wipe those groups out that Islam has finally succeeded (minus the Israeli thorn in their side... they wont be dealing with that one any time soon).