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princem007
Joined: 16 Oct 2003
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Post subject: 11th with 4 th best % of 114.9 | |
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This seems a strange anomaly but has another team ever had a percentage of 114.9 after 17 rounds and be in 11th spot with 4th best percentage.
I very much doubt it.
And this considering we have played every team once bar Sydney.
As much as the losses are disappointing it shows we are very competitive.
It means little at end of day as the premiership points column on ladder is the most important figure after round 23 that determines if you play finals or a spectator. _________________ Go Pies...Premiers 2010 |
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jackcass
Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Location: Bendigo
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We're not without a chance of winning all our remaining games. Do that and the rest will take care of itself. |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA
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jackcass wrote: | We're not without a chance of winning all our remaining games. Do that and the rest will take care of itself. |
Another premiership ... cool! _________________ All We Can Be |
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Cuthbert Collingwood
Once was on fire, now all at sea
Joined: 08 Dec 2005 Location: The BBC (Brunswick Bowling Club)
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Wanted to post this myself! Very good points, % could well be a factor in making the 8. Over to you E _________________ McRae for Governor-General! |
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melliot
Joined: 07 Apr 2006 Location: Bendigo
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But percentage doesn't matter. Or so we were told. I guess it's true. We have a good percentage, but ain't in the 8 or 4. |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007 Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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MightyMagpie wrote: | jackcass wrote: | We're not without a chance of winning all our remaining games. Do that and the rest will take care of itself. |
Another premiership ... cool! |
I needed that MM _________________ Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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Do what and the rest will take care of itself? |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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The Geelong sides of the 90's used to routinely miss the 8 and have a league best percentage. Its an oddity, but not historic.
Its a simple case of a team that gets the job done against teams it should beat but loses more games than it should because its young list isn't ready to beat the good teams (or lacks belief).
One thing that should make you feel better is that teams who lose a lot of close games with a younger list generally shows great improvement the following year.
In baseball in the US, they keep track of each teams win loss record in one run games. Teams with a bad losing record in this category are general understood to have a great prospect of improving greatly the following year. _________________ Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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melliot wrote: | But percentage doesn't matter. Or so we were told. I guess it's true. We have a good percentage, but ain't in the 8 or 4. |
Exactly. This year more than any other year we are learning first hand that percentage doesn't matter. Past 4 years we've had a low percentage and it hasn't hurt us. This year our great percentage isn't helping us! _________________ Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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jackcass
Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Location: Bendigo
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MightyMagpie wrote: | jackcass wrote: | We're not without a chance of winning all our remaining games. Do that and the rest will take care of itself. |
Another premiership ... cool! |
That'd be fantastic but I was more discussing making the 8 |
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ronrat
Joined: 22 May 2006 Location: Thailand
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The unfortunate draw may make percentage in the bottom half of the 8 irrelevant. In fact mathematically both those sides could get in at the expense of a side who legitimately would have got in if that game had not been abandoned. _________________ Annoying opposition supporters since 1967. |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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It tells me we're the 4th best team in the comp. If we scrape in to the finals we'll give it a real shake. |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA
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E wrote: | In baseball in the US, they keep track of each teams win loss record in one run games. Teams with a bad losing record in this category are general understood to have a great prospect of improving greatly the following year. |
1 run games involve a luck and a skill element - that's why closers are paid so much to pitch in high leverage situations.
The more meaningful thing they use to look at luck is a comparison of actual W-L versus a calculated Pythagorean (expected) W-L record based on runs for and runs against.
Buckley hinted at much the same thing when he talked about our defence (based on points against) being top 5 (?) and offence being top 4 (?).
Using historical results you would be able to come up with a similar algorithm for AFL to calculate expected results based on points for and points against - you could then compare actual W-L and see whether a team has been "lucky" or "unlucky".
Champion Data do something similar with their premiership zone scatter graph which I assume most people have seen on twitter - averaging more than 100 points for and less than 80 points against puts you in their premiership zone. _________________ All We Can Be |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013 Location: WA
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http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/stats-insider-analyses-every-clubs-run-home-with-champion-data-numbers-wholl-finish-first-and-last/story-e6frf3e3-1227460654845
Collingwood (11th, 8-8, 114.9%)
Finals: 44%
Top 4: 3%
Difficulty of remaining draw: 18th (average percentage of opponent — 91.03%)
ROUND 18: Melbourne at MCG, Saturday afternoon
ROUND 19: Carlton at MCG, Saturday early
ROUND 20: Sydney Swans at SCG, Friday night
ROUND 21: Richmond at MCG, Saturday early
ROUND 22: Geelong Cats at MCG, Friday night
ROUND 23: Essendon at MCG, TBA
ANOTHER week, another heartbreaker. While the others were painful because of how close the Magpies came to upsetting the best teams in the league, this one matters more because it was against a team near them on the ladder. The good news is that their run home is the easiest in the AFL. Their percentage has them as the fourth-best team. That might not be accurate but they’re definitely good enough to storm into September from here. Their luck has to turn around at some point, surely!
FOX FOOTY’S PROJECTION — five wins, finishing 13-9 (eighth on percentage) _________________ All We Can Be |
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BBHS
bbhs
Joined: 30 Jun 2004 Location: Bellarine
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All winnable games we have. Fate in our own hands.
Must regain confidence in the next 2 weeks then come home strong. |
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