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Labor to turn back the boats.

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:15 pm
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nomadjack wrote:
How would we know Stui? The media black out means we have no idea how many boats are intercepted...


But we know how many illegals have made it into Australia: zero. That's the bottom line.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:28 pm
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^Yep, instead everyone decides to stay home, have a cup of tea, and attend Aunt Gertrude's 70th Laughing

Your argument is as rhetorically empty as it always was, Tannin. All it's doing is playing silly buggers with the definitions of the terms "problem" and "solution".

There is no problem of an unconstrained easy route to Australia; there is no unlimited supply of people through the non-problem of an unconstrained easy route to Australia; and there is no data evidence of any policy being effective in stopping the non-problem of the unlimited supply of people through the non-problem of an unconstrained easy route to Australia except if you define the problem as "any boat arrivals" and an acceptable solution as "physical tow aways to poor neighbours accompanied by data blackouts".

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Last edited by pietillidie on Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:43 pm
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Tannin, I think you need to read NJ's posts more carefully - on both occasions you've misunderstood the section that you've quoted.

1. The quote states that there is no definitive link between asylum policy and number of boat trips; therefore, punitive or restrictive policy may not be effective.

You may well dispute the findings of that study, but you can't claim it as support for your position, because it isn't.

2. The 'restraints' NJ refers to are mainly geographical, financial and geopolitical, none of which have anything to do with Australian policy. However bad things get in Libya, for instance, its displaced won't be turning up here when they have a much closer and more attractive destination in Southern Europe.

By the way, I do not support and never have supported an 'open border' policy. What I'm arguing is that there should be exceptional rules for refugees; that they should be permitted to turn up on the country's doorstep unannounced and ask for asylum and that, if their claims are proven valid, we should let them in.

This is the policy that every other signatory to the UN convention has. It is neither radical nor untested.

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:14 pm
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You need to read my previous-but-one post, David, the one about the very low elasticity of demand.

Secondly, note that Abbott and Rudd have comprehensively disproved the statement you rely on: their punitive and restrictive measures have in fact dropped the number of boat arrivals to zero.

Thirdly, assuming your insane fantasy policy of no quota (just for the sake of argument, 'coz it has zero chance of ever being implemented) then the only restraining factor becomes financial - anyone with the money to come will come, nothing surer, and because (under your insane policy) there would be no need for any illegality or subterfuge, the cost of passage would be bugger all. Fill the biggest boat you can find, sail it to Perth, shove 'em all off, turn around and get another load. Easiest risk-free way to make a dollar anyone ever heard of.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:45 pm
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^The answer is not a once-for-all-time policy. It's acknowledging this is a complex issue which has the potential to get out of hand, but which is much worse elsewhere, and therefore needs a regional and global solution and leadership in this region from Australia. Leadership, not cowardly and pitiful irresponsibility and dismissal like shopping around poor souls to impoverished countries.

Once you reduce these things to simple formulas, as the Glibs and then ALP have done, you lose the ability to solve the problem for the good of all, which is also the good of yourself.

Just imagine what a massive disaster in Indonesia, say, would do to the region. And with populations rising and instability all over the place, and natural disasters always only being a matter of time, if there is no infrastructure and agreement and processes in place, Australia would be overwhelmed like it or not, and everyone else will tell us to get f%#%$d.

Arrogantly pretending that one is negotiating from a position of advantage on this is what gives you Iraq Wars and Hurricane Katrinas: Human and financial disasters caused through inadequate process and risk management. Afterwards, of course, it's too late to recoup the losses.

It's simply grossly negligent in an Iraq kind of way to sit back like fat wankers and pontificate to a region that won't be able to deal with havoc. This has always been a chance to put something solid together. The trite and misleading formulas of defensive folks become tomorrow's disaster time and time again.

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swoop42 Virgo

Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?


Joined: 02 Aug 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 3:23 am
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If I can turn back the tide.

If I can find a stray.

I'll never take back those words that hurt you, go away.

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nomadjack 



Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Location: Essendon

PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:13 pm
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Tannin wrote:
nomadjack wrote:
How would we know Stui? The media black out means we have no idea how many boats are intercepted...


But we know how many illegals have made it into Australia: zero. That's the bottom line.


Firstly, no matter how many times you parrot it, they are not 'illegals'. They are well within their international rights to seek asylum onshore. Secondly, while it might be the bottom line for you, I'm more interested in finding a solution to a problem that we have played a significant role in creating through misguided and inept military intervention in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. A key part of that is helping to establish a regional processing centre. Turning back boats makes that process more difficult and does very little if anything to minimise the risk faced by refugees.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:42 pm
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I fully support regional processing centres and getting a swift process happening.

Lets see where those with more money than patience try to abbreviate their wait next.

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:45 pm
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Sigh. Where did I say that was the bottom line for me? I didn't. You are making unwarranted assumptions about my view.

You still don't seem to have read the whole thread, but to save you the trouble I'll repeat. That zero result is the bottom line for your argument that local policy makes little or no difference to numbers arriving. That zero result demonstrates beyond all doubt that local policy can and does make a difference. To claim otherwise is absurd and contrary to observed facts.

My contention is that, just as local policy has now been proven to make a huge difference at the low extreme of the supply-demand curve, so too it makes a huge difference at the high extreme. The supply-demand curve is fairly flat, in other words, only in the centre of its range. This is normal with all such curves, as any economist, sociologist, demographer, or businessman could tell you. In this particular instance, we have only proved that with practical policy at the low end, of course, but it would be remarkable indeed if it were not the case - probably unique.

(For the record, my own view of the broader question - my own "bottom line" if you like - is that we could and should do a good deal more for refugees, including (among other things) accepting many more of them onto our shores than we do at present, and ensuring that the selection process is as fair as we can make it.)

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nomadjack 



Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Location: Essendon

PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:07 pm
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According to your argument it is the bottom line. They're your words Tannin. As for the rest of your argument, I'm not talking about local policy settings impacting on the number of arrivals. I'm talking about the failure of punative policy settings to have any significant demonstrable impact on the choice of destination that asylum seekers make, which is what the research suggests. This would suggest that a less punative regime is not likely to lead to a sudden avalanche of arrivals of the magnitude you were suggesting in response to David.
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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:09 pm
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Tell me more about bottom line.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:10 pm
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Choice of destination does not equal choice of travel to said destination.
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nomadjack 



Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Location: Essendon

PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:15 pm
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Huh?
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:45 pm
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nomadjack wrote:
Huh?


The research you refer to talks about choice of destination.

The argument isn't about why people choose Australia as a destination. Plenty of refugees choose Australia as a destination and still will do. The difference is, they won't choose to try and get here by boat from Indonesia.

Lots of refugees get to Australia every year. Lots did it this year, none of them came here by boat.

Choice of destination does not equal choice of travel to said destination. Don't misquote the research.

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nomadjack 



Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Location: Essendon

PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:19 pm
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The research talks about refugees from Sri Lanka and Afghanistan (the vast majority of which have historically travelled by boat) having a poor understanding of deterrence measures implemented by government and their likely impact on chances of resettlement in Australia. How exactly does that constitute misquoting?
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