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Labor to turn back the boats.

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Dangles 

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Joined: 14 May 2015


PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:25 pm
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David wrote:
Back at Labor HQ, Shorten has won on turnbacks:

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/25/bill-shorten-wins-freedom-to-use-boat-turnbacks-but-leadership-split-on-issue

I think this is the most telling quote in the article:

Quote:
Michelle O’Neill, a Victorian left delegate, spoke passionately against.

“If every country in the world adopted a policy to say we were going to turn back boats at sea, where would we be as a world?” O’Neill said.


Spot on. We're passing the buck.


Now that they're on the same page as the Libs on turn backs I wonder if the media focus on it will drop off now? I'm guessing that's what Shorten is hoping for.
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Tannin Capricorn

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Joined: 06 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:28 pm
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David wrote:
Spot on. We're passing the buck.


How the farnarkle do you manage to see doubling our refugee intake as "passing the buck"?

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:29 pm
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David wrote:

Quote:
Michelle O’Neill, a Victorian left delegate, spoke passionately against.

“If every country in the world adopted a policy to say we were going to turn back boats at sea, where would we be as a world?” O’Neill said.


Spot on. We're passing the buck.


Nearly every country does, when it can. And when it does not turn back boats, it erects border crossing points on land.

What's so special about sea, other than the fact that it is so many times more dangerous for the seekers ?

Meanwhile, in England, the channel tunnel was closed again yesterday as the siege of would-be economic migrants continues :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-33662489

As far as i am aware, France is a party to all the relevant agreements, but it's not really about asylum, in so many cases, it's just economic migration using asylum as cover.

I don't blame these people at all - they are brave and enterprising people and in their shoes I would do the same. Hell, I'm an economic migrant myself, conceptually. But O'Neill's view of the world is not a viable policy : it's just a recipe for making a difficult situation far worse..

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:11 pm
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Can we cut the "economic migrants" stuff? The majority of the people on these boats are genuine refugees. The fact that they've managed to scrape together a bit of money from who knows where (life savings, relatives, loans) in order to pay a people smuggler doesn't change that.

Despite the government's seeming belief in its own omnipotence, taking a tough-on-refugees stance is not going to stop the boat trade. This is what I mean when I say we're passing the buck: for those refugees who are motivated by 'push' as opposed to 'pull' factors (I believe there's been a bit written on that topic on here before and the extents to which each apply), their destination will just have to be elsewhere. And that will just put more pressure on that (inevitably, poorer) country which can't afford to maintain a quota.

And what if, as the Labor delegate says, all countries adopted Abbott and Shorten's policies? Refugees would have nowhere to go and would remain at the mercy of the (as we know, completely insufficient) world's voluntary intake. Talk about deaths at sea...

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:26 pm
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David wrote:
Can we cut the "economic migrants" stuff? The majority of the people on these boats are genuine refugees.


David, if you have evidence to support that claim, it would help change my view (up to a point). Given the many signatory countries to the UNHCR convention en route to Australia, I find it hard to believe - but it's clearly an important question. I'm not actually sure how easy it is to verify in any case, given the purported destruction of papers and the difficulty of evidence gathering in faraway lands, but evidence matters on this point.

What is true in Europe is that the majority of claimants do seem to be economic migrants, as evidenced in the article I linked to re the Channel Tunnel.

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Tannin Capricorn

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:27 pm
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Tannin wrote:
David wrote:
Spot on. We're passing the buck.


How the farnarkle do you manage to see doubling our refugee intake as "passing the buck"?


Congratulations. I have never seen such a successfully executed total failure to address the question. Have you thought of a career in politics?

PS: you have been promoted away from the boot studder position. I admit that this was probably a mistake.

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:41 pm
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Tannin, I certainly applaud that particular decision. But the problem is that we're still dealing with quotas.

The world's various humanitarian crises do not have a quota attached, unfortunately. What happens to the people left over once the quota has been filled? Where do they go? To the countries that haven't bolted the gate shut, obviously. That's how we're still passing the buck.

Mugwump wrote:
David wrote:
Can we cut the "economic migrants" stuff? The majority of the people on these boats are genuine refugees.


David, if you have evidence to support that claim, it would help change my view (up to a point). Given the many signatory countries to the UNHCR convention en route to Australia, I find it hard to believe - but it's clearly an important question. I'm not actually sure how easy it is to verify in any case, given the purported destruction of papers and the difficulty of evidence gathering in faraway lands, but evidence matters on this point.

What is true in Europe is that the majority of claimants do seem to be economic migrants, as evidenced in the article I linked to re the Channel Tunnel.


Here's an article from 2013:

http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/boat-people-genuine-refugees-20130519-2juvg.html

Quote:
The figure for the March quarter for genuine refugees who arrive by boat - 90.5 per cent - continues a long-term trend, with 93.5 per cent of those who arrived by boat being found to be refugees in 2010-11, and 91 per cent in 2011-12.

Many asylum seekers initially given a negative assessment had their case overturned on appeal: 65.3 per cent were given primary approval for a protection visa in the March quarter.


Richard Marles also acknowledges as much in the piece Stui posted.

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Tannin Capricorn

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:54 pm
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Wow! Have you gone completely insane? Did you read what you wrote? You just argued for NO LIMIT AT ALL!!!!!!!! I'm in shock! Even by your extraordinary standards this is loopiness above and beyond the call of sanity or duty. Do you even know how many refugees there are in the world? Are you seriously asking that we set no limit? FMD, that's 20 million extra people this year alone.
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Mugwump 



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:17 pm
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^ Thanks, David. Higher than I expected. I withdraw.

Still, the question nags - why, given the many UNHCR signatory countries that lie intermediate to Australia, would so many refugees risk so much to get to Australia ? It does not make sense, unless economic reasons figure largely in the process. The Uk - another country less far from the world's hotspots has a genuine number of 35%. Very strange

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Tannin Capricorn

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:52 pm
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The obvious answer, Mugwamp, and doubtless to a large extent the correct one, is that the people making the decisions are different. Also, it takes much less time to travel the short distance from, say, Libya, to Italy and thence the UK than it does to travel from that same place to Australia, and doubtless costs less too. One has a great deal more time (and probably money) with which to work up an appropriate story.
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Mugwump 



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 12:02 am
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Tannin wrote:
The obvious answer, Mugwamp, and doubtless to a large extent the correct one, is that the people making the decisions are different. Also, it takes much less time to travel the short distance from, say, Libya, to Italy and thence the UK than it does to travel from that same place to Australia, and doubtless costs less too. One has a great deal more time (and probably money) with which to work up an appropriate story.


^ Yes, I suspect the answers to the questions are probably fairly well coached as part of the (inevitably) more industrial scale of the Australian voyage.

It could be that the refugee composition is different, but a cursory look at the available data suggests not.

Technically determination is managed under local statutes out in place to effect the UNHCR convention, and I have to wonder whether the UK statute is more harsh/rigorous/clear-eyed than Australia's. I'm not going to use a rare sunny English summer's afternoon finding out, however.

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Tannin Capricorn

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 12:17 am
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That would be my guess too, Mr M. And I'm not going to waste a beautiful balmy Ballarat evening with the wind howling fit to lift the iron off the roof and the rain turning to sleet.
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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 1:01 am
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Tannin wrote:
Wow! Have you gone completely insane? Did you read what you wrote? You just argued for NO LIMIT AT ALL!!!!!!!! I'm in shock! Even by your extraordinary standards this is loopiness above and beyond the call of sanity or duty. Do you even know how many refugees there are in the world? Are you seriously asking that we set no limit? FMD, that's 20 million extra people this year alone.



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David Libra

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 1:09 am
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Tannin wrote:
Wow! Have you gone completely insane? Did you read what you wrote? You just argued for NO LIMIT AT ALL!!!!!!!! I'm in shock! Even by your extraordinary standards this is loopiness above and beyond the call of sanity or duty. Do you even know how many refugees there are in the world? Are you seriously asking that we set no limit? FMD, that's 20 million extra people this year alone.


Let's try to imagine how such an outrageous hypothetical would work.

Oh wait, we don't have to, because this is exactly how things were until about two years ago*. For decades. Why weren't we swamped by millions of people a year?

Even under the Rudd and Gillard governments, when things were supposedly getting out of hand - and it's true that there was a marked increase in arrivals - we were still only talking about a few thousand arrivals every year. A pittance, really, in a country of 23 million people.

With our wealth and resources, it certainly wasn't an unmanageable problem, not by any stretch of the imagination. Could it have become one? Maybe. I don't know. But what I do know is that your millions never turned up. And that on its own should be sufficient reason for you to re-examine your theory and assess where you've gone wrong.

* Yes, we had quotas on our voluntary intake, and took the unique (some might say dastardly) step of tying them to our onshore claimant total, so that, for every boat/plane arrival accepted, one place would be removed from our voluntary intake. The more relevant point is that, without a turnback policy, we effectively had no quota for boat people.

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:10 am
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David wrote:
Tannin wrote:
Wow! Have you gone completely insane? Did you read what you wrote? You just argued for NO LIMIT AT ALL!!!!!!!! I'm in shock! Even by your extraordinary standards this is loopiness above and beyond the call of sanity or duty. Do you even know how many refugees there are in the world? Are you seriously asking that we set no limit? FMD, that's 20 million extra people this year alone.


Let's try to imagine how such an outrageous hypothetical would work.

Oh wait, we don't have to, because this is exactly how things were until about two years ago*. For decades. Why weren't we swamped by millions of people a year?

Even under the Rudd and Gillard governments, when things were supposedly getting out of hand - and it's true that there was a marked increase in arrivals - we were still only talking about a few thousand arrivals every year. A pittance, really, in a country of 23 million people.

With our wealth and resources, it certainly wasn't an unmanageable problem, not by any stretch of the imagination. Could it have become one? Maybe. I don't know. But what I do know is that your millions never turned up. And that on its own should be sufficient reason for you to re-examine your theory and assess where you've gone wrong.

* Yes, we had quotas on our voluntary intake, and took the unique (some might say dastardly) step of tying them to our onshore claimant total, so that, for every boat/plane arrival accepted, one place would be removed from our voluntary intake. The more relevant point is that, without a turnback policy, we effectively had no quota for boat people.


Rates of increase, David, rates of increase. Look at the number between 2011 and 2012 as the softening policy took hold. An increase of around 4 times. The same number for the whole of 2012 was achieved in the first half of 2013 even after the crackdown had started. Just double 20,000 for four years and you've got 320,000 arriving annually.

I'd say that the data completely supports the importance of controling this issue.

http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1314/QG/BoatArrivals

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