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What's warming the world

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2015 4:57 pm
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Neither of those two, Stui. They would have gone down well though. Smile
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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005


PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2015 5:16 pm
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I have a talent for remembering lyrics, if I could carry a tune and stay in key I'd have it made (these days with auto tune I probably could've been a star anyway) Laughing
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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2015 5:22 pm
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I recommend that you take up rap.
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stui magpie Gemini

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Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2015 7:15 pm
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I recommend he takes up alcohol. I always sing better when I'm pissed. Razz
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think positive Libra

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Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere

PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2015 7:20 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
I recommend he takes up alcohol. I always sing better when I'm pissed. Razz


Ditto, sing star agrees too!

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Wokko Pisces

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Joined: 04 Oct 2005


PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 10:45 am
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Whatever is meant to be warming the world better come off its 18 year break and get going again.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years/story-e6frflp0-1227439329592
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 12:13 pm
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Wokko wrote:
Whatever is meant to be warming the world better come off its 18 year break and get going again.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years/story-e6frflp0-1227439329592

18 years is apparently how long it's been since you've done any maths. Laughing

Actually, Zharkova's work would be very worrisome if it's right. A sudden solar-cycle-driven cooling in the midst of a general human-induced warming would be infinitely worse than just the warming alone: Then you'd have massive instability from one extreme to another and back again, while trying to feed and house 10B people, and deal with god knows what increase in extreme events in between.

The problem for you—though this wouldn't have even registered for you because you're not really interested in the problem and are awaiting fresh instruction from fossil fuel industry PR agents before contributing further—is that the more accurate Zharkova is, the more she contradicts another of your favourite nonsense claims, namely that the sun's effects are so overwhelming that all other signals in the data pale into insignificance.

Well, which one is it?

Either we are able to control for the sun's effects well enough to discern anthropogenic climate change and things like the upcoming dynamics of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 in Zharkova's work, or they're not knowable to the level of precision Zharkova thinks she can discern.

Sadly for you and the yellowed Y-front denier brigade, it is unlikely to be both at once.

For those serious about the topic, if an analysis like Zharkova's is right (I don't follow it closely anymore, so we await reaction), this makes the problem even worse, and global treaties, development and integration even more urgent.

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 12:32 pm
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Now you're getting really weird, Wokko. Imagine, for the moment, that she is right and practically everyone else is wrong. (Yes, the probability of that is vanishing small, but let's imagine that anyway.) What would the result be, right here in Australia of a replay of the "little ice age".

Ans: nothing. Zip, nada, none.

If the "little ice age", which ran from 1550 to 1850 was of any consequence whatever, someone here would have actually noticed it. No-one did. There were three particularly cold intervals during that period, starting (respectively) in 1650, in 1770, and in 1850. There are no written records from Australia covering the period immediately after 1650, but European settlers were here right through the bulk of the second period (which extended to about the turn of the century) and no-one noticed a thing, and the third peak cold period of the so-called "little ice age" occurred right in the middle of the gold rush.

No-one even noticed.

I call bullshit beat-up by the Herald-Scum. Again.

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 12:41 pm
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In fact, of course, solar activity variations have bugger-all to do with temperature, as you can see for yourself below.


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King Monkey 



Joined: 15 Apr 2009
Location: On a journey to seek the scriptures of enlightenment....

PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:12 pm
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Not much going by the last coupla days in Melbourne......
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:34 pm
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Tannin wrote:
Now you're getting really weird, Wokko. Imagine, for the moment, that she is right and practically everyone else is wrong. (Yes, the probability of that is vanishing small, but let's imagine that anyway.) What would the result be, right here in Australia of a replay of the "little ice age".

Ans: nothing. Zip, nada, none.

If the "little ice age", which ran from 1550 to 1850 was of any consequence whatever, someone here would have actually noticed it. No-one did. There were three particularly cold intervals during that period, starting (respectively) in 1650, in 1770, and in 1850. There are no written records from Australia covering the period immediately after 1650, but European settlers were here right through the bulk of the second period (which extended to about the turn of the century) and no-one noticed a thing, and the third peak cold period of the so-called "little ice age" occurred right in the middle of the gold rush.

No-one even noticed.

I call bullshit beat-up by the Herald-Scum. Again.


Same bullshit was reported in the past few days on a number of news outlets including the Daily Mail, Telegraph, times of India, the Independant etc.

Secondly, not sure where you pulled that time frame (1550 to 1850) from as the time frame in the article is 1645 to 1715, well before there were any records kept in Australia.

The phenomena referred to is apparently real, the Maunder Minimum but only impacted Europe as far as anyone knows.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

Whether the modelling is accurate or not, who knows

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:56 pm
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Quote:
It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries or alternatively, from about 1350 to about 1850 ..... NASA defines the term as a cold period between AD 1550 and 1850 and notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 8:00 pm
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Tannin wrote:
Quote:
It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries or alternatively, from about 1350 to about 1850 ..... NASA defines the term as a cold period between AD 1550 and 1850 and notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age


So? The headlines refer to A mini ice age, the article refers to a repeat of the Maunder Minimum which has more specific dates as quoted above.

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 8:03 pm
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NASA not good enough for you then?
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 8:35 pm
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I'm fine with NASA but try to stick to the point that was raised instead of going on a tangent.

Oh, wait. FMD, forgot where I am.

Sorry, play on.

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