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Greece's Debt Crisis

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ronrat 



Joined: 22 May 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 4:37 am
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No individual or corporation (except the St Kilda footy club)and the greedy bankers of New York would be allowed to get away with this. They borrowed money they had no intention of paying back in the hope it would go away. The bubbles caused their own demise.
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:28 am
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Mugwump wrote:
Some of those issues are :

- A currency which makes independently governed states and peoples jointly liable for each other's maladministration ;

- The delicate balance between reforming cronyism vs allowing enough consumption spending for it to grow ;

- The fact that consumption spending funded by external debt is usually not real growth at all (it's just more of how we got here)

- The debt relief that had already been provided to Greece in the form of low interest rates and ultra-long maturity terms

- The fact that if Greece exits the Euro, its chance of ever reforming its institutions to modern European standards is probably gone for generations.

- The reckless behaviour of bankers who lent the money to the Greeks on a false premise and were allowed to transfer their liabilities to the EU Central bank, because of the nexus between bank capital and economic growth.

- The serial failure of Greek governments to implement reforms agreed in bailouts in 2010 and 2012, plus the tragic misleading of the Greek people by Syriza, who called a referendum and then completely disregarded its result to get a worse deal in the subsequent negotiations.

- The power of the Euro to tear Europe apart and create real geopolitical risk in an era of revived Russian chauvinism

Again, that's, parroted, hand-me-down obvious stuff from the papers you've listed there, for goodness' sake. Everyone knows that, while we've also discussed the arbitrary framing of the referendum, and the Russian chauvinism bit, well Rolling Eyes Honestly, do you spend any time thinking these things through at any scientific level, or do you spend your days collecting the talking points of others as a hobby?

I specifically put forward and explained the notion of econoracism, so you've already misunderstood and mis-reported what I said. Or are you waiting for someone in authority to approve the use of the term?

I specifically explained—as per the conceptual roots of ECB thought as introduced in the brief article I posted on inflation dogma—that fundamentalist economic claims have become the psychiatric foundation and justification for the racism here, because all racism needs god claims to stiffen itself to oppress others as lesser humans.

This is how the human brain works, and it's something that rural 18th century aristocrats knew nothing much about at all.

Further, you mentioned European taxpayers footing the bill through their millions of little upwardly-converging contracts the other day, but suddenly when discussing something very clear in the European polity, i.e., racism, you your interest in tax payers has now vanished from the discussion.

This is because you flip from one proof text to the next as you try to cobble together a defense of outdated, received cultural ideas you have absorbed from childhood until today, and which make you feel more in control of the world and more justified as a person acting in the world. Well, good on you!

But the tangible, concrete fact is this: We all know full well Euroracism across entire swathes of populations was either a major or the major driver of modern EU projects to begin with. But, miraculously you—as one who references history all the time—have decided it is no longer a shaping force in the discussion! I do so hope you were not holding a straight face as you implied as much.

Euroracism is a lingering, seething force which is now conveniently blending with economic greed and fanaticism to give us econoracism, or whatever term the thought police have approved you to use when describing such a phenomenon.

I mean, you've got no intellectual shame, apparently. The unholy alliance of popular racism and economic positions—and perceived positions—is studied the world over. It is the staple of popular conservative politics globally, no less. But, there you are saying no, not in Enlightened Europe! Laughing

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:42 am
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^ ptid, Another typically ad hominem, content-free post which fails to engage with any of the real issues, sulkily strokes the old racism fetish, amd remains fearlessly oblivious to the history of the issue. Way out of your depth on this, sorry.
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:51 am
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Mugwump wrote:
Another typically ad hominem, content-free post which fails to engage with any of the real issues, sulkily strokes the old racism fetish, amd remains fearlessly oblivious to the history of the issue. Way out of your depth on this, sorry.

Which part of my explanation of econoracism was content free? Which part does not apply to Europe? Which part of its use in analyses worldwide is content free? Come on, which part? Put your money where your parroting beak is!

And then you shamelessly mention history again, when it completely supports an econoracism approach!

Nope, sir, your childhood frameworks are a mile out of their depth.

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:09 am
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Ok, I just read your posts again, including the largely irrelevant blog post about the ECB (it's not the ECB that's at issue here, it's the people who are liable for the ECB's liabilities, ie the EU nations and their governments).

i can't see where you've even defined this fantastic coinage of "econoracism", let alone done more than just assert it as a fact.

If there is any racism here, it seems to me to lie in the assertion that i think you are making - namly, that the Greeks could, and should, never have been trusted to meet their commitments and abide by the rules they signed up to. That would have been a remarkable presumption.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:14 am
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By the way, the basic things we have always agreed on, such as the need for Greece to undergo transformation.

But that is not at stake; again, that's obvious.

But even we you acknowledge the need for the Euro area to find alignment, and to be elastic, the next minute you refuse to talk of the political force which needs to be dealt with to do that: i.e., classical Euroracism.

Then, the next minute, you slip into a fatalism about that being impossible, and can-kicking and what have you. If so, then you should be encouraging a Greek and beyond exit. But you're not; instead, you lunge into a defense of the ECB and Troika on the basis of supply-side economics, or contracts or too-big-to-fail systemic implications.

So, what is it?

The fact is, the Europe has to succeed. And that will take getting a grip on Euroracism, and getting a grip on inflation dogma and paranoia at the same time as bearing with Greece to see through their reforms. It's a two-sided problem and always has been. But the econoracism, and the systemic blackmail are by far the largest components of the problem because they're Euro-wide obstacles.

Your claim that consumption is not real growth is, again, only correct insofar as the timeframe concerned. But you're torn, aren't you: As a good Anglophile, you do so want your rival Europe to fail, but as someone vested in the economics, you do so want it to succeed.

Hence, the conflicted, scattered talking points.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:39 am
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Mugwump wrote:
Ok, I just read your posts again, including the largely irrelevant blog post about the ECB (it's not the ECB that's at issue here, it's the people who are liable for the ECB's liabilities, ie the EU nations and their governments).

i can't see where you've even defined this fantastic coinage of "econoracism", let alone done more than just assert it as a fact.

If there is any racism here, it seems to me to lie in the assertion that i think you are making - namly, that the Greeks could, and should, never have been trusted to meet their commitments and abide by the rules they signed up to. That would have been a remarkable presumption.

Gold! Now you're parroting Republican talking points! Those who talk about cultural difference are in fact the racists! Laughing

Again, do you have anything incisive to contribute, aside from trying to make yourself feel in control by cobbling bits and pieces together?

Five seconds ago you were railing against the French and their 98% debt (the hilariously-discredited Reinhart-Rogoff 90% formula and spreadsheet error come to mind!). Yet, now, you can't countenance the difficulty of the task of a mass entity rooted in massive historical inertia rearranging its institutions and world views in the five minutes granted it by its creditors because it's racist to do so?

Massive entities such as countries and their sociological systems cannot change in five minutes. Fact. Period.

Pointing out the difficulty of such massive change, and the irrationality of expecting such change, as per the idiocy of the negotiations, is not racism, unless you don't understand that term, either. Railing against groups of people for the mass-scope, life predicament they're embedded in, whether be good or bad, and due to whatever reason, and impugning them for it, now that is textbook racism.

You keep tripping over these things because you lack contemporary frameworks for dealing with massive, complex structure such as an EU beyond the narrow things your own culture has taught you. Instead, you want to drag Russian chauvinism into it (not European chauvinism, Russian chauvinism!), and other minor Anglophile obsessions.

And I have defined econoracism. I just explained it; did you miss it again? It's classical populist Euroracism meeting the fundamentalist certainty of ECB inflation dogma. Okay, so again: Visceral Racism + Economic Dogma = econoracism. You not come across in politics before? You've never heard a politician or party proclaim spending associated with X minority must be cut because of Y fundamentalist economic dogma such as godly budget deficits?

Surely, you jest again.

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Last edited by pietillidie on Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:41 am; edited 1 time in total
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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:41 am
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^ on that civil note, there are certainly things i can agree with. I'm an Anglophile, but I've lived on the continent for five years and i do want my friends in Europe to make a success of their project. I just don't think that they can do so with the Euro, and absolutely not if the member countries will not follow the rules.

All that said, we can both bleed for the Greeks. It is a hellish situation, and though we may disagree with where the responsibility lies, it is one of the tragedies of life that good, ordinary decent people must suffer in their millions for bad government. I suppose that is why politics - and arguing about it - really matters.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:49 am
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Mugwump wrote:
^ on that civil note, there are certainly things i can agree with. I'm an Anglophile, but I've lived on the continent for five years and i do want my friends in Europe to make a success of their project. I just don't think that they can do so with the Euro, and absolutely not if the member countries will not follow the rules.

All that said, we can both bleed for the Greeks. It is a hellish situation, and though we may disagree with where the responsibility lies, it is one of the tragedies of life that good, ordinary decent people must suffer in their millions for bad government. I suppose that is why politics - and arguing about it - really matters.

Okay, fine and good with me. A bit of heat in the posts makes it fun; gives it teeth and meaning. Because, as you say, at the end of the day the predicament is a lousy one, and the systemic downsides are massive; agreed in full.

I have never only focused racism, but it's a lurking EU menace, is all, and of course it gets no airplay and is never confronted, despite amplifying so much of the popular and by extension media and elite conversation.

I'm not saying that you're racist; you're not. I'm saying the underlying forces driving these things include that massive European menace, and it has formed an unholy alliance with certain economic dogmas in this instance, as it often does.

Bu yes, indeed the unsustainable budgets have to be reined in, and the productivity held back by musty, in-bred institutions unleashed. On this I think we have complete agreement, my rhetorical insults notwithstanding! Very Happy

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 7:02 am
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^ fair enough, go and have a pint of good English bitter and i'll cruise over the football pages, now that the cotact sport is over 😉
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 7:05 am
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^Okay, enjoy!

I was going to add, we all swap positions, too, depending on who we're talking to and why.

One minute, there I am defending Korea from racist contempt, and the next minute I am heaping scorn upon a similar thing because I think it is a thorn in the flesh of Koreans, and makes the lives of so many of my friends burdensome, say.

It could be the same fact: One moment used by an outsider as a general racist insult, say, framing Koreans as backward; the next moment being used as an example of the kinds of reforms Korea needs to push through; and still in another case it might be used in a moment of quaint affection, or banter.

Or, even more pertinent to this discussion, in conversation with my partner's Greek classmate I might next be rolling my eyes at Greek institutional cronyism! But not as one who has some underlying view of Greek folk being inherently inferior or superior in any way, but rather as one who knows the systems we inherit and are born into can frustrate the life out of us and always need ongoing reform.

This is why relationships and getting to the heart of people always matters, as I'm sure you agree.

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pietillidie 



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:49 pm
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Mercifully, the most "moderate" member of the Troika, the IMF, is pushing for greater debt relief in the deal. This is not surprising due to the US influence on the IMF, with economics in the US actually being much less fanatical at present than in Europe, bending its ear to the likes of Krugman, Bernanke and Yellen (the the latter two the most recent and present Fed Chairpersons, respectively, and not in the Greenspan fruit loop category).

That said, as others have pointed out, the IMF has been in the room the whole time, so who knows what sort of power shenanigans are going on. My pure gut guess is the US has leaned on them as I would've expected given the names above, or this is just part of the game play. Also, Krugman has noted the IMF is quite divided at the moment, IIRC.

No doubt there are plenty of onlookers both wanting to stick the boot into the EU, but also needing systemic stability generally.

The IMF in a late push for sanity in a report issued yesterday wrote:
Greece’s public debt has become highly unsustainable. This is due to the easing of policies during the last year, with the recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment because of the closure of the banking system adding significantly to the adverse dynamics. The financing need through end-2018 is now estimated at Euro 85 billion and debt is expected to peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years, provided that there is an early agreement on a program. Greece’s debt can now only be made sustainable through debt relief measures that go far beyond what Europe has been willing to consider so far.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15186.pdf?hootPostID=2cd94f17236d717acd9949448d794045

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/14/greek-crisis-tsipras-political-backlash-bailout-osborne-uk-live

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