US Election 2016
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| David wrote: | | Wokko wrote: | | David wrote: | | Do you reckon he has a chance, though? No matter how many states he wins, Clinton seems to get all of the ones with big delegate counts. And her superdelegate lead isn't going anywhere. |
He's no chance without shifting superdelegates, but he's the best option to beat Trump. Trump has already erased Hillary's lead in some important states and the two have shown their vote moves in opposite directions given time to speak to the electorate.
She only needs 17% of remaining delegates, but the longer it goes on the more Trump looks like a winner and she looks like she has to grind it out again an aging socialist. People love a winner. |
Kasich was the only one of the last three Republican candidates tobeat Clinton in most head to head polls, but it didn't help him much in the end. I guess wrapping up the party base really is half the battle.
On a scale of 1 to 10, how disappointed are you going to be if Trump loses?  |
On a scale of 1 to 10 how shattered will you be to have to hand over that $20 when Trump wins?  
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| stui magpie wrote: | [quote="Jezza"]I doubt Sanders will win the nomination in the end!
He's pushed Hillary which has been admirable on his behalf but he isn't winning this [b]without a total collapse from Hillary[/b].[/quote]
What he's doing if nothing else is softening her up for Trump. |
When was this exactly? |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| stui magpie wrote: | | David wrote: | | Wokko wrote: | | David wrote: | | Do you reckon he has a chance, though? No matter how many states he wins, Clinton seems to get all of the ones with big delegate counts. And her superdelegate lead isn't going anywhere. |
He's no chance without shifting superdelegates, but he's the best option to beat Trump. Trump has already erased Hillary's lead in some important states and the two have shown their vote moves in opposite directions given time to speak to the electorate.
She only needs 17% of remaining delegates, but the longer it goes on the more Trump looks like a winner and she looks like she has to grind it out again an aging socialist. People love a winner. |
Kasich was the only one of the last three Republican candidates tobeat Clinton in most head to head polls, but it didn't help him much in the end. I guess wrapping up the party base really is half the battle.
On a scale of 1 to 10, how disappointed are you going to be if Trump loses? |
On a scale of 1 to 10 how shattered will you be to have to hand over that $20 when Trump wins? |
Considerably less upset about the loss of $20 than I would be about the prospect of four years of a Trump presidency. I'd pay considerably more if it meant we could avoid that!
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Pi
Joined: 13 Feb 2006
Location: SA
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look on the bright side if Trump gets elected it might finally prove to Americans and possibly the world that there is no GOD.
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Pi = Infinite = Collingwood = Always
Floreat Pica |
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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If Trump wins, or even if he goes close, the impact on how to run a political campaign will be to turn on it's head much of the collective wisdom.
labor and Shorten are following the Dandrews playbook from the last Vic state election they even have the same slogan. Put Unions (eh, I mean People) First.
Anyway, the key to the playbook seems to be mobilising large numbers on the ground. I saw an article the other day but CBF looking for it to link it.
All the Australian parties and their interest groups, particulalry Labor and the ACTU will spend a metric fuckload of money in coming weeks on media campaigning, which is also the traditional way.
Yet Trump spent a poofteenth of the money that the other republicans spent, individually. It would also be tiny compared to what Billary has spent, whereas the Colonel has more closely followed the Trump playbook than the traditional one.
It will be interesting to see over the Federal Aus election if anyone has been taking lessons from Trump and is allowed to try to implement them.
If so, I reckon first cab off the rank will be the Greens. They'd be more agile than the big two and have less resources so it wouldn't be as difficult to get approval of trying something different. Look for them to really bump their social media coverage and finding ways to get invited onto news and current affairs programs to air their views rather than just the standard canned media shoots and traditional media ads.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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Gees is rape the only sex politicians get?
This is getting ridiculous.
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. Does he really think he is so untouchable?
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Brenny
Joined: 05 Apr 2011
Location: Westpac Centre
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I'll be leaving the USA 1 week before the election.
The group I'm going with are hoping to get to a Trump rally. For no other reason than the lolz.
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Heeeeeeeeeeeeeey, we want some Bayley! |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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5150 
Joined: 31 Aug 2005
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Probably not a typo!
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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We're all probably getting Trump fatigue by now, but this is a pretty good op ed piece:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/25/opinion/trumping-on-eggshells.html
| Quote: | Trumping on eggshells
Frank Bruni
I recently asked a good friend where her boss stood on Donald Trump.
This wasn’t an idle question. Her boss gives big money to Republican candidates. He’s both power broker and weather vane. And she talks politics with him all the time.
But she has no idea about him and Trump. She hasn’t inquired, because she doesn’t want to know. She’s fond of her boss. She respects him. But what if he’s made peace with a candidate who called for a ban on all Muslims entering the United States, mocked a disabled journalist, belittled John McCain’s experience as a prisoner of war, praised Vladimir Putin’s thuggish leadership style, complimented the Chinese government on its brutal handling of the uprising in Tiananmen Square, made misogynistic remarks galore and boasted during a debate about the size of his penis?
She can’t go there.
I understand.
I have many relatives who loyally vote Republican, regardless of their excitement about the particular nominee. There’s a definite chance that some of them back Trump. So I steer clear of talk about this election, though we’ve spoken plenty — and placidly — about every other election.
One of these relatives routinely pushes back at any Trump-negative columns I write, and I’ve convinced myself that he’s just baiting me and playing devil’s advocate. I’ve never said to him, point blank, “Are you actually voting for Trump?” And I won’t. It’s my goal to get to and through Election Day without learning the truth.
There are various measures of the chilling singularity of Trump’s candidacy, including the last two Republican presidents’ announcement that they won’t be attending their party’s convention, all the prominent G.O.P. donors who have publicly rejected Trump and the stubborn drumbeat among some Republicans for a third-party challenger, if only as a means to assure Hillary Clinton’s victory. These are extraordinary developments. We mustn’t forget that.
But another gauge of this freaky interlude is the number of us who are steadfastly avoiding conversations we’d normally have. We pride ourselves on not letting political arguments disrupt personal relationships. We have friends across the ideological spectrum. We esteem leaders from both parties. We value a healthy give-and-take.
But we can’t fit Trump into that. He’s a disagreement too far, an enthusiasm too bizarre. So we’re treading lightly and maneuvering around him. We’re Trumping on eggshells.
That’s not the same as burying our heads in the sand, and it’s not a squandered opportunity to dissuade someone from Trump. Most Trump supporters aren’t ignorant of the litany I presented above. They’ve decided not to be bothered by it. They’ve crafted a counterargument. I’ve heard it.
At least he’s not Clinton, they say. True. Neither is Kim Kardashian. Shall we elect her? Her husband, Kanye West, has said that he might run in 2020. Let’s accelerate the timetable and speed the couple to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Trump has a furtive decency and unsung sensitive side, or so his boosters claim. They cite his relationship with his grown children. You know who else is an obviously loving and beloved parent? Clinton. You know who had a strained relationship with his kids? Ronald Reagan. If that wasn’t a mark against him, why is the opposite a gold star for Trump?
But Trump will be a competent executive! Let’s assume that’s so. Will he be executing a Muslim ban? In that case, wouldn’t incompetence be preferable?
Enough about the Muslim ban, his accommodators respond: He doesn’t believe in three-quarters of what he puts out there. It’s all theater.
Great! So what does he believe in? Are we supposed to guess and hope for the best? And will his theatrical impulse dissipate when he takes the oath of office? Or will it flare now and again, sending markets into turmoil and ships into battle?
With Clinton, they say, we get the status quo. With Trump we get disruption.
Possibly. But disruption cuts many different ways. And Trump’s particular disruption could leave us in shreds.
To some of us, Trump is a fundamentally unserious person, and thus a dangerous one. To others, he’s a vessel of grievance and protest, and that’s enough. The chasm between those viewpoints isn’t easily bridged. So we take detours around it. They’re as elaborate as cloverleafs.
Friends have asked me about the leanings of other friends, because they shudder to find out for themselves. Relatives have grilled me on other relatives. I’m acquainted with anti-Trump Republicans who have purged the billionaire from their discourse with Trump-acquiescent Republicans, simply so they can press on.
There will be epic ugliness in the foreground of this election. But pockets of silence in the background will be just as unsettling, because they’ll reflect a despair and bafflement beyond words. |
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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I would have laughed a year ago if someone told me that Trump was a serious chance to become president from 2017 onwards, but now it's actually possible 
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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I think this is educational for a lot of us. I think we forgot that we live in a world of Berlusconis, Idi Amins and Abbotts. Why should America be any different, really?
I just can't get on board with leftists like Helen Razer and John Pilger who would rather see the carnage brought on by a Trump presidency than the more or less safe status quo of Clinton. It's just so naive to think that right-wing extremism will bring on the people's revolution they hope for. The world doesn't work like that; after Franco, Mussolini and so on, people were just happy for some moderate social democracy (if you could even call it that) where they could enjoy some basic civil liberties and political dissidents weren't going to get bumped off. I'm not saying Trump's going to become an actual fascist dictator, but it's most definitely going to be a rough and non-cathartic four to eight years if he gets into power. Have we learnt nothing from the last Republican presidency?
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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