US Election 2016
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Wokko wrote: | | David wrote: | | By the way, any mild sympathies I had for Rand Paul are stone dead after his response to the latest Trump brain spasm. I'm hoping Rubio or Bush get the Republican nomination now (Kasich is ok too, but he's no chance). As for Cruz, he would have to be my least favourite candidate after Trump - a thoroughly nasty piece of work. |
..... Unless Trump comes out as a gay communist I'd say he's got it firmly in hand.
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You got the bolded bit right but I suspect we're talking about different things.
A long way to go.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Skids wrote: | | I'm liking Trump more everyday. He says what most people think, yet are to scared to say it for fear of being labled a racist. |
Now that's a surprise. Would never have picked it
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Lazza
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia
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| watt price tully wrote: | | Skids wrote: | | I'm liking Trump more everyday. He says what most people think, yet are to scared to say it for fear of being labled a racist. |
Now that's a surprise. Would never have picked it |
All I can say is to each their own but still unbelievable and scary as hell that even a few fellow human beings admit to having such bloody bigoted views of other human beings 
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Don't confuse your current path with your final destination. Just because it's dark and stormy now doesn't meant that you aren't headed for glorious sunshine! |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Worth noting that the Republican establishment are really turning on Trump now. He's already floating the idea of a breakaway party. All Hillary needs to do is turn up.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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| David wrote: | | Worth noting that the Republican establishment are really turning on Trump now. He's already floating the idea of a breakaway party. All Hillary needs to do is turn up. |
Trump has surged in the polls, he's up 14.8% on his nearest rival.
I don't know why you think Hillary will win, she's never going to be able to motivate the electorate or her 'core' to vote the way Barry O did. Trump will have every conservative out on election day, in fact the thought of Hillary will be enough to shift even the laziest redneck out to a polling station. It'll take Trump running as 3rd party like Dole did to hand the other Clinton his win or a massive self immolation of the republican party to get her over the line.
The establishment will just have to deal with it (or commit mass Suicide by handing the election to Hillary and in perpetuity to the Democrats through self sabotage).
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/10/hold-response-gop-establishment-works-seven-stages-grief-donald-trump/ |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| Every one? |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Looks to me like a Republican civil war. Breitbart and their fellow travellers have gone all in on Trump, and they're going to destroy their party in the process. I guess I should be rubbing my hands with glee at this, but I just feel too aghast at the madness of it all.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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| David wrote: | | Looks to me like a Republican civil war. Breitbart and their fellow travellers have gone all in on Trump, and they're going to destroy their party in the process. I guess I should be rubbing my hands with glee at this, but I just feel too aghast at the madness of it all. |
There's a good article on the odds of each candidate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/12/10/laying_odds_on_the_gop_presidential_race_128994.html
Some good points about why Trump might not win it, and I agree with much of what he said. I actually think Cruz is a bit more of a chance than he does, and Rubio a bit less but it's overall a pretty good analysis.
If Trump is looking 100% like the nominee after the first round of primaries then I'd expect the party to start slowly getting around him. A bit like the Dems with Obama, they didn't want him but they were on a winner, so rode it home. |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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I find the whole thing interesting. I don't believe Trump is an idiot, he's behaving like a negotiator not a politician. The problem is with too many people taking him literally.
Both the statements about letting no Muslims in and deporting all illegal Mexicans are impractical and divisive but in a negotiation they would be called ambit bids or claims.
If you start in the middle ground you have no where to go but the middle ground. Start on the extreme and you have room to move.
There are people who advocate for taking in every refugee that wants to come here which is more ludicrous that Trumps position of taking no Muslims.
A negotiator is comfortable with starting at a point and working down and don't have any issues with that being seen as weakness or backing down. Politicians hate having to do that.
Of course Trump's opponents and plenty of others will take him literally and call him an idiot, a bigot, etc. I think however that only an idiot would take him literally and believe the people with an obvious axe to grind.
The guy is tapping a vein and doing far better than I think even he believed he would. How he changes when it starts getting serious will tell the tale.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| stui magpie wrote: | I find the whole thing interesting. I don't believe Trump is an idiot....,
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I think there's a bit of straw man there Stui.
Who says he's an idiot?
Representing big money to be sure
He's controlling the agenda & doesn't really care what he says. He's a populist.
An idiot, I don't think so.
Dangerous, yep.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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There's a lot of Reagan in the run of Trump, a gleeful conservative optimism running in stark contrast to the statist progressive era of Obama. Like Reagan, trump is an unlikely conservative hero and time will tell if he can reach the lofty heights of Reagan, but seeing the Liberals, Progressives and hand wringing pearl clutchers wet their panties makes the show worth while.  |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Wokko wrote: | | There's a lot of Reagan in the run of Trump, a gleeful conservative optimism running in stark contrast to the statist progressive era of Obama. Like Reagan, trump is an unlikely conservative hero and time will tell if he can reach the lofty heights of Reagan, but seeing the Liberals, Progressives and hand wringing pearl clutchers wet their panties makes the show worth while. |
I think you're a bit skewed on this.
Most are delighting in the republicans internal mayhem. Great stuff.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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I've seen little evidence of Trump not being an idiot, WPT. Have you listened to him talk? Unless it's all an act, he really doesn't come across as the sharpest tool in the shed.
| Wokko wrote: | | There's a lot of Reagan in the run of Trump, a gleeful conservative optimism running in stark contrast to the statist progressive era of Obama. Like Reagan, trump is an unlikely conservative hero and time will tell if he can reach the lofty heights of Reagan, but seeing the Liberals, Progressives and hand wringing pearl clutchers wet their panties makes the show worth while. |
Can you give me, like, five significant reasons why Trump would make a competent president? Policy-wise, personality-wise, anything. Extraordinary claims like "I will make this country great again" surely require some sort of extraordinary supporting evidence.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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| watt price tully wrote: | | Wokko wrote: | | There's a lot of Reagan in the run of Trump, a gleeful conservative optimism running in stark contrast to the statist progressive era of Obama. Like Reagan, trump is an unlikely conservative hero and time will tell if he can reach the lofty heights of Reagan, but seeing the Liberals, Progressives and hand wringing pearl clutchers wet their panties makes the show worth while. |
I think you're a bit skewed on this.
Most are delighting in the republicans internal mayhem. Great stuff. |
I see more fear than delight. The ranting, fuming, hatred towards Trump isn't delight, it's terror. The Republicans aren't imploding, not yet, the establishment don't WANT Trump, but they still want to win. |
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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| Wokko wrote: | | There's a lot of Reagan in the run of Trump, a gleeful conservative optimism running in stark contrast to the statist progressive era of Obama. Like Reagan, trump is an unlikely conservative hero and time will tell if he can reach the lofty heights of Reagan, but seeing the Liberals, Progressives and hand wringing pearl clutchers wet their panties makes the show worth while. |
I can't see that at all, Wokko. Like Reagan, the lemon-suckers of the modern puritan Left portray Trump as unhinged, because he says plain things that vulgar people think. Other than that, though, I can't see anything in common.
Reagan was a hugely skilled politician with years of campaigning and the successful governorship of California on his CV. He was also, indeed, sunny and charming and wired into the American archetype of the nice guy in the flannelette shirt who is always humble and innocently optimistic. Trump is angry, divisive, and self-glorifying. If Trump does win, he represents something much nastier. Interestingly, yesterday's FT had a detailed article on the hollowing out of America's middle class, which is now at its lowest in nearly 100 years. Whenever you dismantle the middle classes, bad things start to happen. Trump is the latest example.
If he wins, then Hillary will bolt in next November.
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Two more flags before I die! |
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