US Election 2016
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| David wrote: | A great analysis of many of the issues discussed in the past few pages of this thread, particularly media coverage:
https://youtu.be/Njl2EC6PXds |
91 seconds and I turned that garbage off... anyone last any longer 
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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| stui magpie wrote: | Interesting article on Business Insider, with a few interesting links.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/i-predicted-exactly-how-trump-would-win-8-months-ago-2016-11
He may have lost the overall popular vote, but just like the Australian system he got the votes where it counted and if you look at the electoral map, he's painted in red across the middle winning by far the majority of states.
Been interesting watching the events of the last few days as well.
The number of people suffering cognitive dissonance at the result is quite stunning.
Some of his first few acts are also interesting.
1. Looking at keeping parts of Obamacare. Not just the fact that he's looking at it but what he says about what parts he think should be kept, at least in principle
2. Not taking the $400k salary that goes with the job.
3. His top priorities of Immigration, health and jobs. Sounds good to me.
4. His responses to the protesters (who seriously need to grow the fk up btw) has been in the main, very good.
I'm not sure what would mess with people's heads more, him being elected in the first place or if he is actually a good POTUS. 
Oh, this is also good, it shows the impact of globalisation on the middle income jobs in the last 16 years.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/a-brutal-chart-from-bridgewater-explains-the-rise-of-trump-2016-11
Not everyone is cut out to be a knowledge worker. |
That's like saying not everyone's cut out for using language. That's what humans do, unless something retards them. Yes, intelligence is a diverse creature; hence, we need to support new means of generating value, not reintroduce failed old means.
Once you've got the terminal illness, complete uncritical positive thinking makes sense. But this is like giving oneself ebola and then whingeing that others are being too negative and weighing on your efforts to stay optimistic, as treatments lay rejected on the table.
Your list simply doesn't make any of the knowns and risks go away. Trump is Abbott, and chaos will follow no matter how much you wish it away. It's a sunk cost now, so best to contain and nudge the mess into a safer orbit.
Unless the US introduces a "national-service-for-meaningful-jobs" program, or a German-style technical apprenticeship scheme, the bulk of jobs which fall into the non-information economy are very low-skilled, low-paid jobs that overseas workers, or local scripts and robots, can do for a fraction of the cost. Even worse, the vast bulk of those jobs have no career path, meaning they lack directionality and deferred-cost rewards. And the higher you push the price up on the ones which can't be moved elsewhere, the faster they will be automated.
There is no over-paying people in a global economy for low-value, poor-performance work without protectionism, and protectionism makes the cost of living and risk of international confrontation go up. If both of those go up, any higher wages are offset by direct costs and the cost of uncertainty, and the world and domestic economy gets poorer.
Trump's "Abbott plan" — deferring new energy technology jobs by pumping out more fossil fuels — is hopelessly temporary, and those jobs will also be low-paid (the unique Australia-China nexus is over), and will vanish with the next commodity cycle.
Fiscal stimulus is, as we know, only as good as its return and depreciation rate. I agree with it completely as a matter of flow management (much like cash flow management) — if you're doing what Germany does with it and providing a pathway to solid jobs, and you're making health and education, and other expensive infrastructure, more efficient. Instead, the Republicans will introduce and reintroduce further fragmentation costs into these, while pushing more working-class kids out of education.
Meanwhile, the clock ticks down as serious solutions, and the need to reconceptualise working life and personal development, and our understanding of the interconnectedness of the world, is shelved indefinitely. Apparently, only some of us are supposed to bear that cost, because "we're suited to earning less while retraining ourselves". I'm happy to do my best, but not enough people are willing to defer rewards, so they need other incentives, and much more encouragement. And that takes us back to the German model, not Trump's faux stimulus.
This whole business is an incredibly foolish and immature reaction to life challenges and world change. So unfathomably irresponsible and religiously uncosted, as with the elections of Bush and Abbott, Bill Clinton abusing interns before them, Brexit, and Boris Johnson being made foreign secretary. The same undisciplined and irresponsible BS.
As much as anyone else, I too would love a party outsider who actually comprehends the domestic and global socioeconomy. And I blame both party cultures for this, and for the failure to grasp the misery of decline in the red suburbs. But, in lieu of the US accepting reality, Clinton would've been more predictable, with a much smaller set of high-risk errors, particularly having been hemmed in by Obama's prior caution. That would've bought time for at least some slightly saner internal adjustment to the relative decline of the US to take place.
Instead, an already bitterly-divided country burdened by the chronic disease of an unsustainable wealth gap is going to flail and thrash like a giant blowfly which has flown through a cloud of Mortein.
Even worse, "knowledge workers" have already done the trades to make money off this and Brexit; two of the easiest fast trades people who actually know how to navigate a trade site could've done. Now comes the treasury yields, if that's your thing.
And so the wealth gap grows.
_________________
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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Morrigu 
Joined: 11 Aug 2001
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| Skids wrote: | | David wrote: | A great analysis of many of the issues discussed in the past few pages of this thread, particularly media coverage:
https://youtu.be/Njl2EC6PXds |
91 seconds and I turned that garbage off... anyone last any longer |
Yep but I'm a female - we always last longer  
_________________
“The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated.” |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| Morrigu wrote: | | Skids wrote: | | David wrote: | A great analysis of many of the issues discussed in the past few pages of this thread, particularly media coverage:
https://youtu.be/Njl2EC6PXds |
91 seconds and I turned that garbage off... anyone last any longer |
Yep but I'm a female - we always last longer |
_________________
Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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think positive 
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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| pietillidie wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | Interesting article on Business Insider, with a few interesting links.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/i-predicted-exactly-how-trump-would-win-8-months-ago-2016-11
He may have lost the overall popular vote, but just like the Australian system he got the votes where it counted and if you look at the electoral map, he's painted in red across the middle winning by far the majority of states.
Been interesting watching the events of the last few days as well.
The number of people suffering cognitive dissonance at the result is quite stunning.
Some of his first few acts are also interesting.
1. Looking at keeping parts of Obamacare. Not just the fact that he's looking at it but what he says about what parts he think should be kept, at least in principle
2. Not taking the $400k salary that goes with the job.
3. His top priorities of Immigration, health and jobs. Sounds good to me.
4. His responses to the protesters (who seriously need to grow the fk up btw) has been in the main, very good.
I'm not sure what would mess with people's heads more, him being elected in the first place or if he is actually a good POTUS.
Oh, this is also good, it shows the impact of globalisation on the middle income jobs in the last 16 years.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/a-brutal-chart-from-bridgewater-explains-the-rise-of-trump-2016-11
Not everyone is cut out to be a knowledge worker. |
That's like saying not everyone's cut out for using language. That's what humans do, unless something retards them. Yes, intelligence is a diverse creature; hence, we need to support new means of generating value, not reintroduce failed old means.
Once you've got the terminal illness, complete uncritical positive thinking makes sense. But this is like giving oneself ebola and then whingeing that others are being too negative and weighing on your efforts to stay optimistic, as treatments lay rejected on the table.
Your list simply doesn't make any of the knowns and risks go away. Trump is Abbott, and chaos will follow no matter how much you wish it away. It's a sunk cost now, so best to contain and nudge the mess into a safer orbit.
Unless the US introduces a "national-service-for-meaningful-jobs" program, or a German-style technical apprenticeship scheme, the bulk of jobs which fall into the non-information economy are very low-skilled, low-paid jobs that overseas workers, or local scripts and robots, can do for a fraction of the cost. Even worse, the vast bulk of those jobs have no career path, meaning they lack directionality and deferred-cost rewards. And the higher you push the price up on the ones which can't be moved elsewhere, the faster they will be automated.
There is no over-paying people in a global economy for low-value, poor-performance work without protectionism, and protectionism makes the cost of living and risk of international confrontation go up. If both of those go up, any higher wages are offset by direct costs and the cost of uncertainty, and the world and domestic economy gets poorer.
Trump's "Abbott plan" — deferring new energy technology jobs by pumping out more fossil fuels — is hopelessly temporary, and those jobs will also be low-paid (the unique Australia-China nexus is over), and will vanish with the next commodity cycle.
Fiscal stimulus is, as we know, only as good as its return and depreciation rate. I agree with it completely as a matter of flow management (much like cash flow management) — if you're doing what Germany does with it and providing a pathway to solid jobs, and you're making health and education, and other expensive infrastructure, more efficient. Instead, the Republicans will introduce and reintroduce further fragmentation costs into these, while pushing more working-class kids out of education.
Meanwhile, the clock ticks down as serious solutions, and the need to reconceptualise working life and personal development, and our understanding of the interconnectedness of the world, is shelved indefinitely. Apparently, only some of us are supposed to bear that cost, because "we're suited to earning less while retraining ourselves". I'm happy to do my best, but not enough people are willing to defer rewards, so they need other incentives, and much more encouragement. And that takes us back to the German model, not Trump's faux stimulus.
This whole business is an incredibly foolish and immature reaction to life challenges and world change. So unfathomably irresponsible and religiously uncosted, as with the elections of Bush and Abbott, Bill Clinton abusing interns before them, Brexit, and Boris Johnson being made foreign secretary. The same undisciplined and irresponsible BS.
As much as anyone else, I too would love a party outsider who actually comprehends the domestic and global socioeconomy. And I blame both party cultures for this, and for the failure to grasp the misery of decline in the red suburbs. But, in lieu of the US accepting reality, Clinton would've been more predictable, with a much smaller set of high-risk errors, particularly having been hemmed in by Obama's prior caution. That would've bought time for at least some slightly saner internal adjustment to the relative decline of the US to take place.
Instead, an already bitterly-divided country burdened by the chronic disease of an unsustainable wealth gap is going to flail and thrash like a giant blowfly which has flown through a cloud of Mortein.
Even worse, "knowledge workers" have already done the trades to make money off this and Brexit; two of the easiest fast trades people who actually know how to navigate a trade site could've done. Now comes the treasury yields, if that's your thing.
And so the wealth gap grows. |
That's s more like it!
Can I get the short version??!!
_________________
You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| How much is that? |
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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Pi 
Joined: 13 Feb 2006
Location: SA
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A great and reasoned conversation by two great minds. (trigger warning for virtue signaling SJW's and those with masters degrees in interpretive victimology )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9l4Ig8201k
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Pi = Infinite = Collingwood = Always
Floreat Pica |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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^ Forgot to put a similar trigger warning on the John Oliver video I put up above. Sorry Skids!
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Morrigu
Joined: 11 Aug 2001
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Sorry but
ARE YOU SUFFERING FROM TRUMP ACCEPTANCE RESISTANCE DISORDER (TARD)?
Trump Acceptance Resistance Disorder is a pattern of pathologically dissociative and psychotic behavior, first observed in the late hours of November 8th 2016, and increasing in severity with passing time.
Sufferers of Trump Acceptance Resistance Disorder often exhibit pronounced cognitive dissonance, sudden bouts of rage, uncontrollable crying, suicidal ideation, and extreme sadness.
SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS: People with Trump Acceptance Resistance Disorder are characterized by a persistent unwillingness to accept that Donald Trump is going to Make America Great Again.
Individual sufferers often display signs of paranoia and delusion; in acute cases psychotic episodes have been observed.
Trump Acceptance Resistance Disorder is different from being upset about the results of the 2016 presidential election; People with TARD are unwilling or unable to accept reality, despite irrefutable evidence.
According to the DSM-V, individuals with TARD exhibit most or all of the following symptoms:
- Telling others they are moving to Canada
- Fixated on fantasies about the Electoral College
- Protesting an election no credible source contests the outcome of
- Exclamations that “Someone” should do “Something”
- Acute change in demeanor from pompous and arrogant to fearful and combative
- Claim that anyone who disagrees with them is some combination of Racist, Sexist, Bigoted, Homophobic, and actually some sort of Hitler persona
http://www.disclose.tv/news/are_you_suffering_from_trump_acceptance_resistance_disorder_tard/136500?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=fb_organic
_________________
“The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated.” |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| think positive wrote: |
Can I get the short version??!! |
The short version is that globalisation means the loss of middle income jobs to countries with lower labour costs is inevitable and that people/countries need to plan ahead to create new sustainable jobs.
basically it's a "No shit Sherlock" focusing on what should be happening, but isn't. I put that part in my post to emphasise why so many people are pissed off in the midwest. It's not as simple as telling people to get higher education when you have college graduates working in fast food franchises cos they can't get jobs they're qualified for.
It's not just globalisation but technology.
Detroit nearly closed down a while back, now they're making more cars than ever with a fraction of the labour because they re-tooled their factories with more robotics.
Builders don't make house frames on site anymore, it all comes pre cut and partly assembled and they just need to stand it up and nail it together. Same as cabinet makers and joinery. No one makes kitchens, they come in flat pack and get assembled on site.
We're behind the trend in the US but the same thing is happening here and the solution isn't just to create more office jobs and skill people up. Everyone may theoretically be capable of being taught to be a knowledge worker but that doesn't take into account personality, preference and job satisfaction.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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It's not "no shit" at all. Consider your comments about the auto industry and use of the term "office jobs" just now; your past support for increasing the burden of education costs on young people; your past opposition to spending on HQ Australian tech infrastructure; your support of Abbott's backward populism; among other things. For whatever reason, you're a progress cock blocker from way back (despite being a great bloke and way smarter than the average bear, but that's a different topic).
Obama rightly saved Detroit not through old-school protectionism, but through technology. The US has a massive domestic auto market and tech industry, which is a huge natural advantage and presented a perfect reset and recovery opportunity, particularly thanks to pioneering commercial work by the likes of Tesla, and the race within tech to own the car as a platform.
Basically, cars are nothing but tech platforms! Those who don't understand that reality, and its implications, and its rate of change, will end up inadvertently asking governments to resuscitate pre-Hawke-Keating ALP industrial policy!
There is no great new cache of tens of thousands of low-skilled, low-value, solid-paying jobs in Detroit that will be there in five years. Even the "stuff" of cars will be printed on-site shortly; the whole thing is moments away from being software and robots — or, to use your 1970s terminology — "office jobs". The whole industry has converted to technology since being bailed out; that was the goal of the bailout beyond its immediate push back against the effects of the GFC.
And Australia has no advantage in either high-tech manufacturing or information technology to even be considered "behind" the US in the context of this discussion. That's the equivalent of saying, "Australia is behind China in semiconductor manufacturing". The two just aren't considered peers in that area.
Australia does continue to have a huge opportunity in farming and agriculture, and the engineering associated therewith, but not in the sense of high-tech manufacturing, which once again will be almost entirely software and robots in the blink of an eye. (Australia's ag opportunity is in biotech — or, to use your terminology again — "office jobs". The jobs your man Tony Abbott de-funded when he hacked into the CSIRO's budget).
Five minutes ago, Trump voters opposed everything Obama did like crazed fanatics, including his appointment of a "car czar", and bailout of Detroit.
In the blink of an eye, the same folk have gone from Randian Libertarians who railed against affirmative action, to 1980s BLF industrial protectionists! From free this and that to rabid supporters of affirmative action a breath later! Bah!
TP, not to leave you in despair, when you think over careers for your kids and such, areas like the following are the percentage plays:
(a) Tasks that are hard to automate, from complex human services (health; the professions; management; etc.), to creative work (marketing/PR; design; high-end trades work involving sophisticated design; etc.)
(b) Data crunching; analytics; GIS; anything which uses data engineering; etc.
(c) Core science and automation skills (the demand sciences; Stui's "office-job" engineering careers; software; networks; integration; anything related thereto; etc.)
Of course, then there's the whole different discussion of what we should be able to do, and what we should do in the robot era. Who knows? In five minutes Trump voters will hold David's view on the topic — but only if it meets their two main criteria: (a) it benefits them directly, visibly, in hand, right now; and (b) it punishes some out-group or poor sod with a haircut they've taken exception to!
_________________
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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^ Not sure how accurate it is to say Obama saved Detroit considering Michigan just voted for Trump (against nearly all predictions). Not a resounding vote of confidence in the way things are going there right now?
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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| David wrote: | | ^ Not sure how accurate it is to say Obama saved Detroit considering Michigan just voted for Trump (against nearly all predictions). Not a resounding vote of confidence in the way things are going there right now? |
Axel saved Detroit
_________________
You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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| David wrote: | | ^ Not sure how accurate it is to say Obama saved Detroit considering Michigan just voted for Trump (against nearly all predictions). Not a resounding vote of confidence in the way things are going there right now? |
Well, stop measuring the shadows seven years later and go and find out the facts directly!
Of course he saved Detroit; Chrysler and GM were on the edge of folding! I was bed-ridden for a month at the time and watched it unfold on Bloomberg!
But, as explained to Stui, he couldn't save auto jobs from automation; doing that would never ever have gotten them back in the game. On the contrary, turning Detroit into an auto tech centre saved them but also hastened job automation, going back to my original dispute with Stui.
Of course, bumbling Trump supporters were against the Detroit bailout because Obama did it. If Trump suggested today, they'd be fist pumping, even if it cost a gazillion and sent the auto industry broke again.
_________________
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm
Last edited by pietillidie on Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:46 am; edited 2 times in total |
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