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Dave The Man 
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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Looks like America is Headed for Civil War
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Pi 
Joined: 13 Feb 2006
Location: SA
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this guys rant is a good laugh, (yes i know hes a fictional character but there is some truth in his satirical performance.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| David wrote: | | Fair enough. I haven't watched a lot of either, but both those shows seem to be long on opinion and short on evidence. I'd be careful in giving them too much credit: cases where someone's gut feeling ends up being a better predictor than established research may justifiably call research methods into question, but it doesn't necessarily make their presumptions preferable as a rule. |
You described CNN and most of the mainstream US media.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Jezza wrote: | | David wrote: | What alternative media are you referring to here, exactly? Breitbart? The National Enquirer? Infowars?!  Please be more specific. |
The Rubin Report (my favourite online show) and The Young Turks (even though they're pro-Democrat) to name a few examples.
They were more accurate in predicting the outcome of the election than the majority of mainstream media outlets who were tipping a landslide Clinton victory, whereas most of alternative media I saw including the shows I mentioned were of the view it would be a close election.
Breitbart is amongst that list as well, but they're not the only notable source of alternative media. |
Most of the competent pollsters were, by election eve, identifying a 2% lead to Clinton, with the gap closing. A 2% lead only requires 1% of the lead to change its collective mind in order to be a dead even. The big change seems to have happened about a week out when the FBI pulled its stunt and a larger lead to Clinton started narrowing rapidly. Far be it from me to suggest that the two things are linked, save in a merely chronological sense.
Michael Moore, who is, of course, a filmmaker and not a pollster, seems to have picked the outcome and the States that were going to determine it, quite correctly and well in advance, without any real statistical analysis of the data. It doesn't make him Nostradamus, either - it just means the statistical modelling that was done was poor. There seems to have been an assumption that women would turn out for Clinton, without any reference to the fact that black women had turned out in high numbers to vote for Obama. One might reasonably have wondered whether they would stick with the white girl to the same extent. The numbers show that Clinton got about 1.5 million less black female votes than Obama did. Given that she also got about 1.5 million less white male votes and that keeping either vote would have got her over the line, there's an interesting question to be asked about why the media is focussing on an alleged poor-white-trash backlash, when there are other factors at play. Next time around, you can be reasonably confident that the applicable algorithms will reflect that race trumps gender for black women - at least until that particular algorithm ceases to be a reliable predictor of actual voting habits. |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| stui magpie wrote: | | David wrote: | | Fair enough. I haven't watched a lot of either, but both those shows seem to be long on opinion and short on evidence. I'd be careful in giving them too much credit: cases where someone's gut feeling ends up being a better predictor than established research may justifiably call research methods into question, but it doesn't necessarily make their presumptions preferable as a rule. |
You described CNN and most of the mainstream US media. |
No argument here. CNN is rubbish, and their brainless news model probably played no small part in the dumbing down of policy debate during the election. Jon Stewart's always summed them up well:
https://youtu.be/K_qJiReI8hU
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Tannin 
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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Polling works remarkably well in Australia. But many other countries have non-compulsory voting, and that makes polling practically impossible.
If you ask someone how they are going to vote, mostly you'll get a sensible answer, and they tend not to change their minds at the last moment. A few do, but by the time you balance out the ones who change from A to B with the ones who change from B to A, chances are you'll get a good result 95 times out of 100.
But when you ask someone IF they are going to vote, that's a much more problematic task. There are so many, many things which can change on the day: the weather (too cold, too hot, snowing, lovely day let's go to the beach); family events (someone drops in, you have a few beers, woops! the polls have closed; a child is sick; forgot to get the groceries; need to go and pick up junior from the friend's house where he slept over); work events (had to stay back and do overtime); just didn't get around to it; queue was too long; rang for a taxi but it didn't turn up - there are a MILLION reasons why people don't vote when they said they would.
I reckon it's a bloody miracle that they ever get voluntary-vote elections right.
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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Note to Australia: FFS, listen to Paul Keating and start distancing from the US. The risk of returning to the bad old days of hoisting internal dysfunction on Asia and Latin America has just gone through the roof, the former obviously being of biggest concern to Oz. The last thing Australia needs is a repeat of a Howard doing US public relations, helping it wreck the joint.
There's stacks of pressure on Oz/NZ in your region, and Germany in this region, to play balancing roles (with France in the balance depending on how lunatic right it goes).
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In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| Who was that? |
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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swoop42 
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
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Makes sense.
Trump is from Uranus after all. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Interesting article on Business Insider, with a few interesting links.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/i-predicted-exactly-how-trump-would-win-8-months-ago-2016-11
He may have lost the overall popular vote, but just like the Australian system he got the votes where it counted and if you look at the electoral map, he's painted in red across the middle winning by far the majority of states.
Been interesting watching the events of the last few days as well.
The number of people suffering cognitive dissonance at the result is quite stunning.
Some of his first few acts are also interesting.
1. Looking at keeping parts of Obamacare. Not just the fact that he's looking at it but what he says about what parts he think should be kept, at least in principle
2. Not taking the $400k salary that goes with the job.
3. His top priorities of Immigration, health and jobs. Sounds good to me.
4. His responses to the protesters (who seriously need to grow the fk up btw) has been in the main, very good.
I'm not sure what would mess with people's heads more, him being elected in the first place or if he is actually a good POTUS.
Oh, this is also good, it shows the impact of globalisation on the middle income jobs in the last 16 years.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/a-brutal-chart-from-bridgewater-explains-the-rise-of-trump-2016-11
Not everyone is cut out to be a knowledge worker.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Morrigu
Joined: 11 Aug 2001
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Today I've read and heard a few people who work in the media ( journalists apparently  ) sprouting that Trump has already said that he will " immediately deport 2 - 3 million immigrants"
Ah no - what he said was " illegal immigrants with a criminal record" - big big difference you muppets!!
At least try to be honest in your reporting rather than pushing your own agenda IF that is remotely possible 
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“The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated.†|
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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^
Yup.
I'm watching the 60 minutes interview atm on 10.
People will see what they want, I think he explains himself well.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Morrigu
Joined: 11 Aug 2001
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^ yeah me too
And she is not the bimbo they have tried to make her out to be either
Don't get me wrong I'm not a fan only because I don't like his climate change perspective as I think it will further harm the animals of this planet and I detest his scum bag trophy hunter sons! They are the only things important to me.
BUT the hysterical rantings of the opposed especially the media who are so so out of touch when he hasn't even taken office yet are giving me the shits  And trying to blame him for the " fear" please save me - like it has never existed in septic land before
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“The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated.†|
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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A great analysis of many of the issues discussed in the past few pages of this thread, particularly media coverage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4HNJpM4TEM
(Edit: previous link taken down, as this one probably will be too.)
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All watched over by machines of loving grace
Last edited by David on Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:58 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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