US Election 2016
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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I'm kind of torn on the Hitler analogies. On the one hand, it's totally ridiculous and probably a good example of why Godwin's Law exists (which is to say, once you mention Hitler, all potential for rational argument goes out the window). I do think Trump has fascistic tendencies in a way most American presidents in living memory haven't, and I could almost see him trying to take emergency powers, but I think he'd be more of an incompetent than a truly dangerous dictator.
On the other hand, neo-nazis really do seem to love him.
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Morrigu 
Joined: 11 Aug 2001
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When is it over? When does the exchange rate improve?
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Rundle's close to calling it for Trump. Good lord.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/09/22/donald-trump-could-win-us-election-guy-rundle/
| Quote: | With seven weeks to go until polling day, and a week before the first televised debate, Donald Trump continues to storm ahead in the polls, making up much of the ground he lost in the disastrous week following the Democratic Convention in late July. He has taken some advantage from the trio of attacks terrorist and semi-terrorist over the last few days, and the Democrats stumbling response. But even before they occurred, his numbers were returning to close range.
The 10-point leads that Hillary Clinton enjoyed in key states like Colorado and Virginia have tumbled, and she leads in those states by a mere three to four points. In the core swing states of Ohio, Florida and Iowa, the lead has changed, and Trump is now ahead by one to four points. These are aggregates of polls of course, with no regard to quality. But theyre all going in the same direction back to Trump.
This across-the-board fall is disastrous for the Clinton campaign, because it has given away their key advantage of electoral college politics: confining the Republicans to one or two very unlikely paths to victory: either Florida-Ohio-Pennsylvania, or Florida-Ohio-Iowa-Nevada-New Hampshire-Maine 2nd district.* It only required Colorado and Virginia to be opened back up to suddenly level the playing field.
Having fallen 10 points behind by attacking the bereaved father of a fallen Muslim-American soldier and other stupidities flowing from it, Trump has regained ground by not doing any of these things. Well, not many invited to a black church in Flint, Michigan, he had to be interrupted halfway through a brazenly political speech from the pulpit in that ravaged city. He later claimed the whole thing was a set-up.
But that barely moves the needle on the Trumpometer these days. And it was swamped by Clintons collapse on 9/11, after weeks of speculation about her health, the botched announcement that she had pneumonia, her description of half of Trumps supporters as a basket of deplorables, done while sucking up to a fanbase LGBT audience, her limiting of appearances to being seen getting in and out of limos at the door of mansions where a fundraisers being held, and her seeming determination to use the Hunger Games costumed elite as a reference point for her personal styling.
Worse, the Clinton campaign has allowed Trump to get ahead of them on concrete policy announcements the most recent being a proposal for six weeks state-funded maternity leave, for all American workers (they have none, currently). Whether that is honestly meant or could get through Congress is a question (probably, but with Democratic support at its core). But at least its a proposal, its something and for millions of frazzled two- and three-job American workers, back on the till at the Piggly Wiggly 10 days after giving birth, it would make a real difference in their lives.
The Clinton campaign? They have offered nothing. Nothing. Nothing big, nothing small. Nothing except the chance to vote for Hillary. By this point in 2008, you knew exactly what Obama stood for get a health plan through, put a recovery plan in place, link a green tech program to retraining and good jobs, get out of Iraq, and return to multilateral diplomacy. Since the New Hampshire primary, team Clinton has had no simple, signal proposal about what to do they simply agreed to modified forms of Bernie Sanders proposals. When theyd won the nomination, they stopped talking about them.
The Clinton campaign against Obama in the 2008 primaries was terrible. The Clinton campaign against Trump in 2016 is terrible. Run by the now spookily-hive-minded Bill-Hillary-Chelsea trio, with a few hangers-on, and an outer circle of old pros, team Hillary are now suffering for the arrogance of the Hillarycentric campaign they designed that the very act of voting for her would be an end in itself, a historic moment, etc.
That lazy, assumptive conception has now created a three-week vacuum at the start of the campaign proper. That, in turn, has transformed personal physical illness from a setback to a disaster. Had they had a program with simple slogans 15 minimum (wage), insure 5 million more, a college degree for less than 10 grand the campaign could have rolled on. Instead, Trump has rolled over it.
The middle stretch of independents have never been strongly drawn to Clinton; they gravitated to her when Trump put his instability and petulance on display. Now that he has become minimally presidential, and has concrete proposals, they are gravitating back away from her to him. Team Clinton has been shedding points day by day, due to flaws of content present in the campaign from the start, and now increasingly difficult to fix.
That there has been a great deal of sexism in the attacks on her is undeniable; that illness, appearance play differently for a woman than for a man, equally so. But they only start to really matter when there is nothing else to talk about. That situation has been the product of Team Hillary and no one else. That they (or the wider Democratic Party) ran such a brilliant convention only to succeed it with a such a hobbled campaign is indicative of something they can put on a show, but it doesnt have a script.
Can that be turned around? Of course. Everyone commenting on this unique campaign has been guilty of writing either side off too quickly the juddering falls and rises more or less dictate it. Quite possibly Team Clinton has been engaged on a strategy hold key policy proposals close, release them as the three debates roll out, and thus blindside a non-professional politician like Trump, who has no policy grasp, stored details or really the slightest clue how anything in government works. That may be the case. If it is, its been a hell of a risky strategy. More likely, it has been a chaotic, secretive, personalised campaign with no great vision for reform in a country that desperately needs it, and those original flaws have determined its current form. Clinton will still win it narrowly on current form, but youve got seven weeks to prepare yourself for the idea of a Trump presidency, and best to do so. I sure as hell am. |
I still think Clinton will win (albeit unconvincingly). But I hate the fact it's so close.
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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11% of Americans believe Hillary is honest and trustworthy.
14% believe in Bigfoot.
Trump now $2.40
Hillary out to $1.60
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Lazza
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia
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| David wrote: | | I still think Clinton will win (albeit unconvincingly). But I hate the fact it's so close. |
I'm not too sure at all. Clinton's numbers are dropping like flies on an Aerogard plane. Even under that magic number required of at least 40% support overall.
I give Trump a huge chance of winning this David.
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Don't confuse your current path with your final destination. Just because it's dark and stormy now doesn't meant that you aren't headed for glorious sunshine! |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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Trump will never run.
Trump will never release his financials.
Trump will never breach 15%.
Trump will never win New Hampshire.
Trump will never breach 25%.
Trump will never win South Carolina.
Trump will never breach 35%.
Trump will never breach 50%.
Trump will never reach 1237 delegates.
Trump will never recover after Wisconsin.
Trump will never win unbound delegates...
Hey Donald hand over the delegates.
Trump will never be the nominee.
Trump is predicting the wrong outcome for BREXIT.
Trump will never unify the GOP.
Trump will never beat Hillary in a swing state.
***[YOU ARE HERE]***
Trump will never be President. |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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The debates should be interesting, or at least the media dissection post debate.
Hillary has apparently been in lock down studying and rehearsing, Trump.....not so much.
Pretty sure as usual the confirmation bias will kick in and the media will report what they wanted to see depending on their bias, people will swallow it, tweet about it and claim the win, depending on their bias and the majority of people who actually are eligible to vote will largely ignore it all.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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^ A lot of people claimed that Obama lost the first debate against Romney last time around. No idea how such things are measured, but they're obviously not always decisive in how people end up voting.
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Unless there's an absolute %$^$%^&%% up by Trump he has it in the bag. The bloke who did the math and calculated the winning formula for every presidential election says so.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| Perhaps. Where did there's an absolute %$^$%^&%% up by Trump he get it in the bag? |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| stui magpie wrote: | | Unless there's an absolute %$^$%^&%% up by Trump he has it in the bag. The bloke who did the math and calculated the winning formula for every presidential election says so. |
Didn't this human version of Paul the Octopus say the same thing six months ago? I mean, he might be right, but he also might be like the Eden-Monaro electorate that is, right until he's wrong.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| Oh I get it. Thanks for explaining that. I get it. [quotestui magpie]Unless there's an absolute %$^$%^%% up by Trump he might be right but he might be like the Eden-Monaro electorate that is right until he's wrong. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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| Wokko wrote: | Trump will never run.
Trump will never release his financials.
Trump will never breach 15%.
Trump will never win New Hampshire.
Trump will never breach 25%.
Trump will never win South Carolina.
Trump will never breach 35%.
Trump will never breach 50%.
Trump will never reach 1237 delegates.
Trump will never recover after Wisconsin.
Trump will never win unbound delegates...
Hey Donald hand over the delegates.
Trump will never be the nominee.
Trump is predicting the wrong outcome for BREXIT.
Trump will never unify the GOP.
Trump will never beat Hillary in a swing state.
***[YOU ARE HERE]***
Trump will never be President. |
This sums up Trump's progression in a canter! 
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