Snoop's 2015 List management trade and draft thoughts

[Snoop Dog]

Each year around this time I tend to start thinking about what I think the list is looking like. Specifically what are the strengths and what are the deficiencies and how we might resolve that through either Free Agency, Trade or Draft.

Am really excited about this years given the shape of the list, crop of talent and what it might look like in 2017. Also very excited about the fact its clear to me given below the salary cap space I think we might have.

Anyway here is this years version. Lets use it as a discussion piece for the year and welcome everyones views;

Salary Cap

Before we start I think the thing people often forget is trying to get an understanding of where we are at in the salary cap. Obviously its not very visible but I think you can piece enough information together to try and get a view on where the salary cap is in terms of money to spend (or not).

I have a model that I have used to do this which forecasts the next few years, players contract status and suspected earnings etc.

The assumptions were;
- delisted players over next 2 years would be Dwyer, White, Fasolo, Young, Keefe, Thomas
- -over next 3 years major contract upgrades should be forecast for DeGoey, Sidebottom, Scharenberg, Oxley, Moore, Witts and possibly one or two others
- Swan does not retire at the end of 2016 and plays for one more year.
- Cloke next contract is a major reduction (ie circa $450k-500k)
The major findings were;
- Veterans allowance becomes available for a number of players and will assist in retention
- Its likely Collingwood have front ended a number of contracts
- Conceivable there is roughly $1-1.5m of space available from 2016-2018
- The salary cap will tighten up significantly in 2018 and beyond

Current List Player Review

Fasolo – I think his career is at the cross roads. Clearly been told to be more aggressive and impact the game physically more. Signs in VFL promising and he is relatively young but he has enough exposed form to suggest a lot of others will go past him and hence not sure will be around

Dwyer – I love the bloke but I would be staggered if he is there next year. Its quite difficult assessing who the additional 1-2 delistings might be this year and you would have to assume he is likely unless something drastic changes.

Macaffer – I don’t think there is any doubt Buckley wants his ability to shut a player down in the 22. He would also allow Crisp a more offensive role which he is showing is capable of. Still his injuries suggest he is still 50:50 for the best 22.

Grundy – Outstanding prospect and have no doubt will become an elite player for the club. I think he offers a bit more at ground level than Witts and a bit more forward.

Elliott – I think he will be an elite player and is committed to Collingwood’s success. He will be an even more dangerous forward once we get a better structure in their with more quality options. Not convinced will be a midfielder but needs more exposure.

Goldsack – Clearly a really important part of the back half set up and we should stop stuffing him around and leave him there. His toughness, aggression and composure are ideally suited. He is also a good kick and a penetrating kick.

Kennedy – I am a fan of this kid and think he will make it once he is back in the side. Really thought he took a step forward in the NAB Cup and been terrific back in the VFL. For mine he should be groomed as a small forward where he played at Glenelg and dominated with stints in the middle. He is tough, has a defensive side and is a good kick.

Langdon – Buckley wants him in the midfield as a couple of other kids step up in the back half and as Scharenberg comes in. I think he will be an elite player but I worry about his lack of pace in the middle.

White – He is doing ok without setting world on fire. He is on decent coin at Pies and unless something changes over the last year or so of his contract I think he is probably gone. Problem for Collingwood is they don’t have much depth here and frankly I think unless they shift Moore or Reid up there or trade for someone then they may have to keep him.

Pendles – Elite player and Pies want to build another premiership around him. Crucial he stays fit.

Blair – He has come back well this year but he is so limited in the role he can play it is conceivable others will pass him. He really needs to be at his best week in week out and I’m not sure he can do that. 50:50 for me but he is contracted to end of 2016

Scharenberg – Will be an elite player. Saw a lot of him as a junior and seen a bit of him in the VFL. He is a class act who could also push into middle.

Adams – He is coming along really well and will be a part of the next push. Could do with a bit more polish on his outside.

Young – No chance to be at the club next year for mine.

Witts – I think he along with Reid is the most interesting player on the list. One of the big questions for Collingwood is can he and Grundy play in same side? I don’t think they can based on what I have seen to date and hence for mine one has to be traded for a player type we desperately seek (eg key forward, outside mid). He would have great currency as I think he will be very very good but it doesn’t make sense to have one in the VFL if they cant play together.

Brown – Building again nicely and would think he is in their long term plans although when he hits FA they will come hard. I think he is a one club player though.

Marsh – He is coming along really well. Hard to see where he fits in though with Moore, Frost, Brown and possibly Reid in the back half.

Varcoe – He has been ok but not great. Jury still out for mine but I think he is a small forward and should play as that crumbing type who can hit the scoreboard for 30 goals a year. He isn’t a wingmen because he just doesn’t win enough footy.

Greenwood – Very good player and is being sorely missed at the clearances. If Buckley could have him back he’d be very pleased. Would let a few others get on the outside a bit more.

Reid – How interesting is this bloke. We have to assume he will get back to playing. So if he does then where does he fit in? Frost and Brown doing well and Moore and Marsh look capable of coming in their as well. Given where they are at forward I think he has to play forward…as much as they don’t want him to. I love him at CHB with his intercept marking and elite kicking but its been made clear coach wont play Frost, Brown and Reid all back so doesn’t leave many options.

Freeman – I think the kid is very good. HE was an elite junior and in the VFL games I have seen he is showing patches of that. He needs a fit body and a consistent run. Give him plenty of time for mine.

Sidebottom – Elite player and going to new levels. Sorely missed on the outside at the moment. Crucial he is retained in FA but again I think he is pretty committed.

Keefe – have to assume is gone

Thomas – have to assume he is gone

Crisp – Time for me to gloat. I am not surprised at all with what we are seeing. Whilst many wanted Aish, Redden, Mayes etc I was just as happy with this kid. He is harder than the above, runs more aggressively and wins more contested footy. His kicking is a bit up and down but he has shown he is capable of a high level. May not be elite but a great working class player.

Williams – Not sold on Marley. His best is good and he is willing to engage physically but there are times against good opposition I think he gets flustered. I don’t see Nick Smith, Dean Rampe and these guys get flustered and think that is his issue.

Armstrong – He will be gone this year

Sinclair – I think we would all love to see Sinclair stay but his body just keeps breaking down. Ramsay might have gone past him. For mine one of Williams or Sinclair are expendable to free up some dollars. Hopefully he gets back in the 2nd half and shows what he is capable of.

Broomhead – Terrific kid who I think will make it because he is just so good around stoppages and a good kick under pressure. Would like to see him spend more time as a HF than he has been though. Last year he was very effective in that role.

Moore – Will be elite. I would love them to push him forward but they seem keen on him as a back.

Ramsay – He is developing and where at start of year I was probably thinking he would finish up that has probably turned around a fair bit. He will stay and he is developing well from game to game.

Cloke – Frankly been a disappointment since his contract saga and will be on less money soon I would think. Also don’t think other clubs will offer a heap for him in FA. Will still be a good player but he needs to fix his kicking pure and simple.

Karnezis – I like PK and there is a role for him but he needs to engage physically a bit more and win contested footy. I think he is best as a medium forward until then but that is a spot where there is a lot of competition.

Toovey – He will be around for the next tilt and assuming we don’t lose him to FA I think is in the best 22. Club cant over pay for him though as we need remember his kicking still lets the side down at times.

DeGoey – No question will be an elite player for mine. Ability to win stoppages is priceless and is a good kick. Can also move forward. Remember Beams and Sidebottom were the same as JDG will be in 2017.

Swan – I think he will play to end of 2017. Physically he can do it but will need to spend more time forward.

Maynard – To early to judge but you would have high hopes given his junior career.

Goodyear – To early to tell but premierships are often built off a year where these picks turn out to be very worthwhile.

Manteit – To early to tell.

Seedsman – Gosh hasn’t he started to deliver. Still needs to do it consistently but he solves a couple of issues in the 22 if he can.

Abbott – To early to tell.

Oxley – Not as surprised by him as was always a good junior, just lacked pace. He has always known how to find it and is a good user. Physically needs to develop a bit but he would be in the mix as a bloke they want to use as a building block.

Gault – I’d like to see him stay as think he is coming along but he just isn’t doing enough to demonstrate he can own a spot. The Witts / Grundy issue has a big impact on him. If they trade one of them he could be the back up. Be handy.

Frost – Another one I like gloating about as picked him out of the VFL in my drafts for years so was rapt to see him at Collingwood. He will be very good if not elite. I think he needs to develop his offensive side more and intercept a bit more, take some marks and then use his pace. You see little bits of it and they are impressive.

Cox – He is coming along this kid. Saw the VFL game and his tap work is probably the best at the club and he can kick reasonably well. His timing needs work and he needs to develop contested marking but there is more to work with than Shae.



Key Issues

So given all that what are the big issues on the list;

Ball use – To make a serious tilt we need to be better with the ball. Those who cant use it under pressure need to be moved on (maybe bar 1-2). For instance I just don’t think Sinclair, Williams, Toovey and Ramsay can all play back. They are all average kicks at best. To that end you need to weed out the ones who are the worst and replace them with elite kicks.


Moore and Reid – Maxwell has said there is no way club will play 3 tall backs and I cant see it either with Goldsack back there. To that end unless you remove Frost or Brown then Moore and Reid ultimately push forward. I think with Goldsack and Marsh then you have plenty of tall defensive options and certainly one of Reid and Moore could go forward and then go back if there are injuries etc.


Outside polish – Varcoe and Young were recruited for this but it hasn’t worked and club need to bite the bullet and get an elite player in for this role.


Building to 2017

To have a serious tilt to my mind you need the following characteristics;

15 Elite or Very good players
Win contested ball and use it under pressure
Strong spine
Ability to rotate many players through your midfield
3-5 players capable of kicking 40+ goals per year
30 players who are AFL standard and who can step up when required.

I think we will have all of those things and here is why;


2017 Best 22

What does it look like when you think about who will definitely be in that side in 2017 looking through the ‘lens’ of a genuine premiership side which cant threaten.

BACKS

GOLDSACK – BROWN - TOOVEY

HALF BACKS

LANGDON – FROST – SCHARENBERG

CENTRES

SEEDSMAN – PENDLEBURY – SIDEBOTTOM

HALF FORWARDS

SWAN – CLOKE – DEGOEY

FORWARDS

ELLIOTT – REID – MOORE

RUCKS & ROVERS

GRUNDY – GREENWOOD – ADAMS

INTERCHANGE

CRISP – MACAFFER – “VACANT” – “VACANT”

EMERG (8-10 can count on to be AFL standard if required)

WITTS - KENNEDY – BROOMHEAD – OXLEY – RAMSAY

MARSH – VARCOE – BLAIR – KARNEZIS



Needs / Targets

With $1-1.5m and potentially some more if you traded Witts then we have the ability to bring in 2-3 really elite players to fix some problems areas.

For me we need to look at;


Elite HB flankers

I think in many ways this is relatively easy to fix as Matt Suckling is off contract this year and is a FA. $500k would see him done and he would fix one of our biggest issues. Would also allow a Langdon / Scharenberg to potentially push up to the middle.


Outside Polish

Lot of options here but how attainable are they is more the issue;

Dangerfield – perfect for our group but he is off to the Cattery is all the ‘inside talk’ I hear.

Treloar – I cant see GWS letting a player like him go. Made it clear wants to stay and hence they will fix the money to keep him.

Shiels – He would be excellent as well and more likely to head back. I would put a very big offer in for him. Can play outside and kick goals as well. But again he would be silly to leave GWS. Would offer up big dollars to get him if he is available and surely we are better placed than Carlton and Richmond to get him.

Prestia – Some talk he wants home but not my first preference and like them a bit taller than he is.

Aish - I haven't seen enough to think am that keen

Bennell – He may find himself on the outer before long but again he will go to WA. Not sure we would want him given what I have heard.

Hoskin-Elliott - if you believe one at least gets squeezed out at GWS then maybe its Will but I doubt it. He would have to be v highly rated and they would be uber keen to keep him. Still they have such a good list may not be able to keep them all.


Key Position

Given I think Reid and Moore have to go forward I think its probably the least 'need' we have but if they are adamant they want Reid and or Moore back then they have to go after a key tall surely. For mine the options are;

Tom Lynch – For me the one who could always be prised back. Terrific player and led to believe Pies were very keen on him in his draft year. I’d love to see them hunt him. He would be my #1 target.

Charlie Dixon – Perfect for us but can we see him leaving. Not sure and if so Lions will go with a super offer would think.

Lachie Henderson – Talk is Cats are making a big play for him as a key defender and Dangerfield to have another tilt. I like him as a forward option but gee the Collingwood game made me worry about him a bit.

Shane Kersten – He is a traditional FF and wont get that spot unless Hawkins leaves which wont happen. I would look closely at him. Very good lead up player and in a forward half with Reid and Cloke would be handy.

James Stewart – Not sure GWS can fit all those kids in a forward line and given they are all good enough a Stewart could be levered out. Whether he would want to come to Collingwood a different issue.

John Patton – Be very surprised if he leaves. Seemingly keen to repay club and fair enough to.


How do we pay for it

I think we have significant cap space and with potentially Witts or Grundy as trade bait then we along with the picks have the currency. In saying that be very unlikely you could bring in 3 elite players in 2 years. If anyone one can then Eddie and Balmey probably can along with Derek.

Draft

Happy to take questions as pretty familiar with the draftees this year but think you are best to wait for the Champs to see who starts to stand out. I have a number of names I think will emerge from nowhere post Champs and hence would think Rd 1 selections will be valuable. IF we were to have another top 10 pick I think you can feel confident there are plenty of good options but I would say my early read is that the quality isn't that high and certainly the depth isn't. I would think if you want a Shiel etc then your Rd 1 pick is off the table.

Summary

I am really confident in the core group we have, the trajectory they show and have faith we can add to that list with a couple of well placed additions. Get excited Pie fans because I certainly am.

[Dave The Man]

I say the 2 most Likely we could get from the Key Postion would be Kersten and Stewart as they are not 1st Choice for there Club’s best 22. Though I would love to get Lynch or Dixon from the Suns.

From the Outside Polish Aish is the only 1 I can see us getting.

IF We trade Witts or Grundy. I think it would be a Massive Mistake and we need to get another Ruckman because we be will light on there and Trading Grundy would be a Massive Mistake we would Regret

I also would not mind at all signing Suckling as he would massively improve our Rebounding

[Dave The Man]

[Raw Hammer]

"For instance I just don’t think Sinclair, Williams, Toovey and Ramsay can all play back. They are all average kicks at best. To that end you need to weed out the ones who are the worst and replace them with elite kicks."

You lumped Ramsay into your “They are all average kicks at best.” comment. being at the Carlton game live from the top deck, and watching Ramsay spear 45m+ passes to Cloke lace out on the tits time and time again from HBF/Wing … the kid is a better than average kick, that’s for sure!

[swoop42]

If the club aren't intending on turning Moore into a forward then one has to ask them why the hell not.

I'll be staggered if we don't.

A young player with his elite capabilities and pedigree seems a perfect candidate to become a star key forward of the future which we require.

As for Witts why would we entertain trading him at the end of the year?

At the very least we need back up for Grundy and Cox isn't that at present and might never be.

Grundy is 21, Witts 22 and in reality have yet to play much football together.

As they both develop as individual players it's not so far fetched to believe they will also improve as a pairing.

[Lazza]

Its not their development or improvement as a pairing that we are worried about swoop42, it is whether they can both play in the same side.

[RudeBoy]

Sensational analysis Swoop.

FWIW, I think the only threat to Witts remaining a Pie is the possible improvement from Cox. All sides need 2 quality ruckmen on their list, if only as back up for an injury, and currently Grundy and Witts fit the bill. However, if Cox begins to take a few marks in the VFL and starts to position himself better around the ground, he could well emerge as our insurance against a Grundy injury. As much as I don't like thinking about getting rid of young players, having Witts as potential trade bait could help us snag a potential star key forward.

[Snoop Dog]

[Snoop Dog]

[Snoop Dog]

[RudeBoy]

Pardon me, I meant 'Snoop', Snoop.

Though I hate to admit it, I suspect you may be right about Witts. Also, if we end up with both Reid and Moore up forward, there's definitely no room for Witts as well. Ditto for White.

[swoop42]

Hawthorn have generally played two ruck men have they not?

For me it's pretty simple if one or both of Grundy and Witts can become a better forward performer they can play together.

At present neither have shown no where near enough consistency in that role.

When Witts was in the ruck against Geelong did Grundy rest forward often or on the bench?

I don't recall Grundy being involved in many f50 contests.

[swoop42]

[Deja Vu]

Is it too early to trade Witts though? I think if he continues to develop we may get more for him later - everyone wants ready made ruckmen and he's not there yet.

Could be used in a trade to get one of the talented kids out of GWS?

[Deja Vu]

Great analysis by the way Snoop.