We're (still) in the FOUR.

35forever · Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:22 pm

I mean are we the fourth best side?
Given that we've beaten the teams currently sitting 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, and 18, and lost to Richmond for the first time in years, as well as Adelaide, one has to doubt whether we'll be anywhere near 4th a few games after the bye. Especially when theres just 2 games between 3rd and 12th! Not much margin for error.
To be considered a real show at the 2015 title, we would definitely have to beat one of Hawthorn or Freo, as well as GWS AND Port, and maybe West Coast.
We could make the finals even if we lose the biggest games, we only need 5 more wins, but these days you make the four or forget it, and we must at least beat a top four side! And not JUST Sydney! My worry is that 4 or 5 sides in a row have strung 5 odd goals unanswered against us, because we can suddenly become unable to score for a quarter. So how many of the upcoming 4 will we realistically win?

I don't want your heart, mine says we can win the rest and finish top two, but

35forever · Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:23 pm

And I DONT mean the bye, very little chance of that!

Raw Hammer · Joined: 11 Sep 2008 Location: The Gutter

We haven;t played Haw, Syd, Frem, Port ... so already we are no better than 5th. We've lost to Adelaide, so no better than 6th, we lost to Geelong and Richmond, so no better than 8th. Until we show we can compete with teh top sides, we're still an 8-12 team. With a full team, we might be a top 6 chance at best due to our draw.

KYPREO · Joined: 22 Mar 2005 Location: Melbourne

I don't think any of us are under any illusions as to where Collingwood sits, but for all the skepticism that we have only beaten the bottom 7 sides, there is nothing directed towards Hawthorn who are actually in the exact same position, if not worse. Their 6 wins have come against bottom 8 sides and they lost to Essendon, which is sitting in 13th.

I look forward to seeing how we respond to the challenges the next month brings.

Lazza · Joined: 04 Feb 2003 Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

John Wren · Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:49 pm

where's the yes or no options? is this a government sponsored poll or something?

5150 · Joined: 31 Aug 2005

mosig · Joined: 24 May 2011

Doesn't really matter... it is such a long draw, it always ends up pretty bang on in the end.

Neil Appleby · Joined: 11 Feb 1998 Location: Melbourne

We are not a top 4 proposition yet by any stretch of the imagination. We are somewhere between 12 and 8th and perhaps 9th or 10th if things go OK from here on.

Doesn't matter though. I think the club might have thought 8th would be a realistic target during the preseason if all went to plan. They wouldn't have factored in Moore, Sharenberg or Reid, so these boys haven't factored in internal thinking.

Levi Greenwood and Freeman would have been factored in; they have been midfield losses along with a 6 weeks absence for Sidebottom.

The second half of the year brings a tougher draw, but also some serious possible improvement if Sharenberg, Freeman, Reid can push for selection. Reid especially, takes us from middle ladder to legit top 8 consideration IMO.

I expect to win this weekend and then lose 3 of the next 4. I think the Club would be thinking similarly. The big picture is that this year is a development year when we put games into the next group of stars. 2016 and beyond look pretty good.

Dave The Man · Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:21 pm

I think we can beat GWS and Port

John Wren · Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:24 pm

Tannin · Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:27 pm

I have predicted a 5-8 finish for us all year long and I see absolutely no reason to change my mind. We are an outside chance to finish 4th, and an outside chance to miss the finals completely, but the smart money always has been on 5th-8th and it still is.

Cuthbert Collingwood · Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:31 pm

^ nah the smart money was on all of those commentators that said we'd be on the lower reaches of the ladder

Tannin · Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:00 pm

^ That was the dumb money. The smart money was on a more realistic outcome.

Face it, last year we under-performed, partly through injury, partly through inexperience. This year it was always reasonable to expect an improvement from the youngsters (hard to guess which ones, of course, but it was virtually certain that a half-dozen of them would come on nicely) and a better team performance overall.

As things have turned out, we have gone pretty much as expected, with some unexpected bonuses and some disappointments.

On the worse-than-expected side, Sidebottom has done very little (because of injury) and Greenwood nothing; Reid ditto though no-one would have counted on him anyway. Broomhead has disappointed, ditto Witts (both inj at times), ditto Keeffe (susp), ditto Freeman. (Others have disappointed also, but these are the unexpected ones - Blind Freddy expected (for example) White to do nothing much and Young to do less, and Blind Freddy was right.)

On the better-than-expected side, we have had the emergence of Crisp, Blair's improvement, and a remarkably solid backline emerging from the chaos. Oh, and biggest surprise of all, the return of Swan, who is suddenly as good as ever and making last year look more and more like a blip rather than a terminal decline.

On balance, we are tracking as expected.