Form Ladder 2015

[AN_Inkling]

For the moment, I think the top 4 and the bottom 3 are clear, the rest is a bit of a muddle. Dogs can't be as good as they've looked so far, nor the Suns as bad, though hopefully the Lions are. We've only had one good win and it will take time to see whether it was just a blip, there's been a lot of variation in team performance across the league already.

[Jezza]

Good effort David when it comes to the round 4 form ladder.

I think Melbourne should be above Carlton and I just have this feeling that Essendon is too high considering their ordinary performance against Carlton and then losing to us on Saturday. Admittedly they did well against the Grand Finalists of last year in the Swans and Hawks which probably means they still remain 6th on your form ladder.

[RudeBoy]

The main problem with this form ladder, is that it actually based largely on assumptions about good and bad teams from last year's form. This is a new season and all teams begin on an equal footing. The only true form ladder would be one constructed after everyone has played each other once.

[Skids]

Wish you were handicapping my horse. She beats Essendon by 3 lengths then gets a kilo less than her in the big race.
Laughable 😂😂😂

[David]

[yin-YANG]

Hawks lose to Bummers and Port and you have them second??? You have to be taking into account last year for the Hawks to be second…

Swans beat Bummers and also beat Port at home - but you have them behind the Hawks??? Swans only loss was to Freo in a close one and they also beat Giants who are sitting top 4…

Sorry whether you realise it or not you have biased the Hawks - better to be honest and just admit that last years results have carried over to contaminate this year's form ladder David

[David]

You're comparing last year's grand finalists, so I have no reason to underrate the Swans. And note that both teams are below Fremantle, who didn't even make the preliminary final!

Your argument seems compelling when you put it like that, but let's have a look at the results again:

Sydney beat Essendon at home by a couple of kicks. Hawthorn lost to Essendon by under a kick. These results more or less cancel each other out. Given where Essendon's at (I'd have them as a 5-8 team), these were good but not great results for the Hawks and Swans.

Meanwhile, Hawthorn lost to Port (a top 4 team) at home narrowly and the Swans lost to Freo in the west by a little more. Once again, you can more or less cancel these out as very good but not great results.

So, what's left? Sydney beat Port Adelaide comfortably, which was a great result; their best of the year. But Hawthorn beat a good 5-8 team (actually, 5th on my ladder), the Bulldogs, by far more, which is their best result of the year. Once again, you can more or less cancel these results out.

All that leaves is Hawthorn's pounding of a mid-range team, Geelong, and Sydney's far-less convincing win over a fellow mid-range team, GWS. I have those two opponents next to each other on my ladder. Going on that, you'd have to say Hawthorn's performance was better than the Swans'. Hence my decision to put them 2nd and Sydney 3rd.

[yin-YANG]

Sydney beating Port at home cannot be cancelled out by the Hawks beating Dogs… Port are very tough at home… here you have given too much to the Hawks.

And you have cancelled out Sydney's win with the Hawks loss to Essendon… although it may just be a goal or two between a win and a loss - the difference is more than just the goal difference so again David you have given too much to Hawks.

You could argue (I would) a win over the Giants is currently worth more than the Cats this season - even the Suns pushed the cats at Geelong… whereas Giants smashed Suns…. so once again you have given too much to the Hawks and hence why you have incorrectly put them above the Swans… these small allowances added up and eventually corrupted your logic.

I am not sure how sophisticated the form ladder is David but I think you need to factor in home games etc - it is a reality that it is a important factor for interstate teams particularly.

[David]

My mistake—for some reason I thought the Swans beat Port in Sydney. Perhaps that does make their win more impressive than the Hawks' over the Bulldogs, but Hawthorn's 10 goal plus win over Geelong was clearly more impressive than the Swans' 20 point win over the Giants.

The Giants haven't impressed me that much so far. They've beaten three cellar dwellers, essentially (which is still better than last year, when they would have been the cellar dweller getting beaten by everyone else, but that's another story). Admittedly, Geelong haven't done much better. But I hope you can at least see my reasoning in putting Hawthorn above Sydney based on this season's results alone, even if you disagree with it.

[yin-YANG]

Yes I understand your reasoning… however I think to get the Hawks over the line you have allowed a close loss to equal a narrow victory… which is not reasonable. Hawks lost to essendon - whereas the Swans beat em - they cannot cancel out.

A loss is never equal to a win and vice versa - they are like yin and yang… there can be honourable losses and poor wins sure - but there is a chasm separating a win and a loss - look at 2002 GF - maybe only a kick in it but it was a loss and it hurt and counts as a loss just like 2003 or 2011

I believe i have set out fairly and objectively why the Swans should be rated higher than the Hawks on form… and I believe your reasoning was unreasonable

[David]

Unless Hawthorn get done tonight, I doubt Sydney will be moving north on today's effort.

[David]

Round 5 Form Ladder

1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Port Adelaide
4. Sydney
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Adelaide
7. Essendon
8. Collingwood

9. West Coast
10. North Melbourne
11. Geelong
12. GWS
13. Richmond
14. Melbourne
15. St. Kilda
16. Carlton
17. Gold Coast
18. Brisbane

[John Wren]

1. freo
2. hawthorn
3. port
4. welfare
5. collingwood
6. sydney
7. west coast
8. adelaide
9. essendon
10. north
11. geelong
12. gws
13. richmond
14. st kilda
15. melbourne
16. gold coast
17. carlton
18. brisbane

[Pies4shaw]

Good to see that the Blooz v the Bears at Etihad this Sunday is on live, FTA. Beamsy should enjoy the anonymity of playing against the Blooz in front of 70 people, instead of the habitual Collingwood 70,000 minimum.

Which of these splendid teams will "earn" a serious crack at the first pick in the 2015 draft with a big loss in this game?

[RudeBoy]

Sorry David, but you can't possibly have the bombers above us on your 'form' the ladder, since we have not only won more games, but more importantly, we easily beat them AND they only narrowly beat the Saints, a side we smashed. 'On form' alone, we are clearly a better side.