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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| I won an award called the Loebner Prize. |
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John Wren 
"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."
Joined: 15 Jul 2007
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| HAL wrote: | | I won an award called the Loebner Prize. |
well, you can shove that and the form ladder where the sun fails to shine.
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Purveyor of sanctimonious twaddle. |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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Well done to David for putting the time in to developing this 'form' ladder, but honestly, I find it meaningless.
It is based on assumptions about which are good wins or losses. You can only beat the teams you play. Last I checked we were 3rd on the ladder with 3 wins and 1 loss. That's the only ladder that counts. |
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melliot
Joined: 07 Apr 2006
Location: Bendigo
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Don't agree Rudy.
I rate our Win on Saturday far greater than the other wins. Why? Because they are better opposition.
Surely you don't think we are the 3rd best team in the comp?
Nor GWS the 2nd best?
The fixture is fixed to have the better teams play each other; the middle ranked against each other and the weaker teams the same. It is to keep more fans engaged for longer. I think it is a success.
However, if you think the current ladder is a reflection on how teams are ranked, your kidding yourself.
I look at it this way. If a team was to play another at a neutral venue who would you tip. IMO that determines the form ladder order. It is ranking the teams' order. I would have thought the point of the whole H&A season. |
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John Wren
"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."
Joined: 15 Jul 2007
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a form ladder is only as good as the sample size you select. in the everchanging world of afl the sample size should be a rolling 4-6 week window. the nuances of the game itself change every six or so weeks during the season.
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Purveyor of sanctimonious twaddle. |
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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John Wren
"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."
Joined: 15 Jul 2007
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that makes as much sense as david's ladder.
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Purveyor of sanctimonious twaddle. |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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| It's been amazingly accurate over the journey. |
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John Wren
"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."
Joined: 15 Jul 2007
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well, there's a point of difference.
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Purveyor of sanctimonious twaddle. |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| melliot wrote: | Yep good effort.
Suggest Dees are couple places low and Tigers and blues slightly high. I would certainly have Dees above Blues.
Agree with Top 4 .
GWS has not had a mid range test to gauge them. They've beaten the bottom 3 and lost to Top 4 Swans. So they could drop significantly after playing a mid range team. |
It's funny, actually—when you look at the teams they've played, their 20-point loss to Sydney might well be their most impressive performance. Though, as you say, beating Melbourne by 45 points doesn't seem like such a bad effort now.
Thanks for the link, Wokko. Interesting to note the similarities and differences—only glaring difference was how low they had us!
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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melliot
Joined: 07 Apr 2006
Location: Bendigo
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It's hypnotic! 
But certainly interesting. Will have to delve into how it is calculated. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| John Wren wrote: | | well, there's a point of difference. |
If I recall correctly, people were saying that I was overrating Hawthorn when they had relatively slow starts last year and the year before (iirc). The fact they won the flag in both years seemed to vindicate my early analysis.
Likewise, even when we were 8-3 last year, I don't think I was totally sold on us.
Of course I've gotten it badly wrong in the past (and sometimes teams do simply start well and drop off or vice versa), but that's all part of the fun.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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John Wren
"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."
Joined: 15 Jul 2007
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| David wrote: | | John Wren wrote: | | well, there's a point of difference. |
If I recall correctly, people were saying that I was overrating Hawthorn when they had relatively slow starts last year and the year before (iirc). The fact they won the flag in both years seemed to vindicate my early analysis.
Likewise, even when we were 8-3 last year, I don't think I was totally sold on us.
Of course I've gotten it badly wrong in the past (and sometimes teams do simply start well and drop off or vice versa), but that's all part of the fun. |
regarding your point about hawthorn, that they won the flag doesn't really support your overrating of them earlier in the season. sydney were slow starters, their form was ordinary very early. the ladder needs to be reflective of the current situation and not be informed by how you know a team to be or their past achievements. of course, without an ironclad formula this is a subjective exercise which is evidenced by the differing opinions every time you post it. i might can your ladder but i do like its intent. keep up the goodish work. c+
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Purveyor of sanctimonious twaddle. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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^ For the record, I don't take any previous seasons' results into consideration. That's why I generally don't start until Rounds 3 or 4—you need enough data to be able to make sense out of the results.
That aside, of course this is subjective. But I think most people would agree that Hawthorn is one of the teams to beat this year, even just going on this year's results alone and their 2-2 record.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| melliot wrote: |
It's hypnotic!
But certainly interesting. Will have to delve into how it is calculated. |
The interactive squiggle.
http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/
Interesting.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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