Why Nathan Buckley is the right man for the job

[Neil Appleby]

Sure I was very disappointed watching that hopeless performance last night; I've spent the summer watching training sessions and building my hopes! I still don't think Fasolo, Kennedy, Thomas & Dwyer are much chop, but today I have a clearer head and a little more perspective about 2015 and Nathan Buckley's future.

I was at a party on Friday night - it was in a cool St.Kilda cafe overflowing with St.Kilda supporters. They were everywhere and let me know it....I think I had been set up by the birthday girl, but I digress. I managed to find one old Magpie who been around longer than I and he asked me this question:
'In your heart of hearts, do you really think Bucks can coach?' I said it was too early to tell which sent him into hysterics.
He took the road that many in Nick's do, that Bucks has no game plan and that we are going nowhere fast.

I tried to explain my point of view this way. In 2012 Bucks inherited a team that had peaked. Many players were close to the end. They had done what they were paid to do; they won us a premiership and almost two. Those of us who watched us lose the GF's from 1966 onwards know just how amazing 2010 and 2011 were.

But, Bucks knew he needed to recast the team, find a new game plan and plug some list gaps. Injuries killed Buck's first year and have done so ever since. My point, to this charming gentleman, was that we really don't know if Bucks can coach or not. All his plans get killed by season ending injuries to his top players. I couldn't remember the names and years although I did remember Bucks had to cope with 3 or 4 knee recos in his first year and plenty of other distractions as well.

On Saturday I tried to put the Buckley seasons into perspective and here is what I have come up with:

2012
We lost Macaffer and Krakouer to knee injuries in the preseason and then lost Ball and Keeffe to knee recos too. That's 4 knee recos in one year. Not many teams could absorb that and yet we did. Travis Cloke's contract talks distracted everybody and yet Collingwood finished 4th with a 16-6 win-loss ratio. This year was seen by most as a marking time year for Collingwood and most thought it was a pass considering we had a new coach and had suffered serious injuries.

2013
Pre season Chris Tarrant retired, Chris Dawes, Wellingham and Ceglar were traded. Cloke stayed whilst Lynch, Young and Jordan Russell were recruited.

Injuries called again.
-Tooves went down after only 5 games with a knee and his season was finished.
-Beams injured his calf and missed the majority of the year.
-Krakouer was injured and had off field issues. Played only 8 games.
-Dale Thomas had ankle problems all year. 5 games only.
-Didak also struggled with injuries and form playing only 5 games
-Ball and Keeffe came back but played only 13 and 8 games respectively.
-Recruit Young was injured all year and managed only 2 games.
-Jolly too was struggling with injury playing just 9 games.
-Ben Johnson played just 3 games before retiring mid year.

It was clear that a turning point had been reached for some players yet Collingwood finished 6th with 14 wins and 8 losses and lost in a shock to Port Adelaide in the Second Elimination Final.
This year was seen as a fail. Even with injuries and indifferent form by many players we were expected to beat Port. Our implosion and Heath Shaw's in particular meant the pruning shears were going to be used.

2014
-Russell, after only 9 games, was moved on as were Jolly, Didak and Heath Shaw.
-Recruits Sharenberg and Freeman were injured all year and played no games.
-Ben Reid was injured pre season, never recovered and was in and out of the team thereafter.
-The injuries mounted as the year rolled on and by round 22 we resembled a hospital emergency department.

After a promising start with an 8-3 halfway record, injuries AGAIN finished off Buckley's plans. We finished with an 11-11 ratio and failed to play finals finishing 11th. This has to be viewed as a major failure as a year.

I think it's important to stress that with a little luck with injuries, Collingwood would have comfortably made the top 8.

Post season:
-We call a Fan Summit to reassure the brewing rebellion amongst supporters.
-We reluctantly trade Beams and enthusiastically trade Lumumba to Melbourne.
-Nick Maxwell, Luke Ball, Quinten Lynch, and Ben Hudson retire and we cut Mooney, Yagmoor, Hudson, Clarke & Martin.
-We recruit well, snaring Moore, DeGoey, Maynard and Goodyear in the Draft and Manteit and Adams in the Rookie Draft. We bring in recruits Greenwood, Crisp and Varcoe to plug the gaps left by departing players.

Overall, I don't believe we have been able to see whether Buckley has the game plan to take us to success. He certainly has not had any luck with injuries, watching as key personnel have bitten the dust in three successive years.

The 2015 pre-season has seen a very healthy list for a change with short-term injuries being carefully managed. At training the emphasis has been on fitness (endurance and speed), fast movement from the backline in direct drills, mainly through the middle, and long kicking to a one-out forward.

My best case prediction is that we can mark time if our 2-3 season younger players stand up to assist Pendlenbury in the middle. I'm talking Elliott, Kennedy, Thomas, Broomhead, Fasolo and Seedsman. This best case sees us have some luck with injuries (Buckley surely is due), and earlier than anticipated development of DeGoey, Moore and Freeman. This scenario may see us push for 8th spot. Realistically it will probably see us somewhere between 9-12.

The worst case scenario would see more of the Buckley Injury Curse and a fall down the ladder as young players are forced to step up before they are ready. If this were coupled with no obvious improvement in skill levels and/or no apparent winning game plan, then I concede Buckley will be under pressure; not just Buckley, but also Bill Davoren, who surely cannot survive another bad year of injuries.

I'm not sure whether Pert would be under pressure or not really; he has steered the club to year-on-year profits and record-breaking membership numbers. Eddie is President for as long as he wishes I reckon, but he may be more inclined to step aside at the end of 2015. By mid-year, the final piece of Ed's long term repositioning of the Club will be completed, when the new Social Club Complex is unveiled. If the club has another year of failure, I suspect Ed may move aside in the interests of a 'new broom' mentality.

The slide down the ladder notwithstanding, I think Bucks will prove this year that he is the man to take us forward to the next premiership window. Fingers crossed with injuries.

Nathan Buckley, coach:

Games: 70
Wins: 42
Losses: 28
Win/Loss Ratio: 60%

Finals: 4
Wins: 1
Losses: 3
Ratio: 25%

[thompsoc]

I don't see a game plan that is even remotely what is
needed for footy in 2015.
In fact besides bombing long to Cloke I don't know what is the plan?
A number of premiership players left and Bucks was at
least partially responsible.
We have a side that simply can't kick and we keep recruiting
players that still can't kick see Adams.
Bucks has never beaten Hawthorn and won't in
the forseeable future.
We seem to be a team of midgets with a few
big players thrown in.
We were monstered last night by a very young team.
And most of all he keeps picking Blair!!!
Give me a break please.

[Dave The Man]

Good Read and IF Bucks does Fail then be more then Just Bucks under Pressure. The Whole Footy Department would be.

[Dave The Man]

So Bucks is still in Re-Bulding Faze and he should given more time to see his plan to the End?

[Piesnchess]

Congrats Neil, one of the BEST, most coincise, logical, commonsense threads ever seen on Nicks. Very well said, well thought out, and I totally agree with you. To quote ol Mick, "the earth is slow, but the Ox is patient", that's the key, we just have to be patient, and let these kids, footy babies, develop and mature, and get vital game time into them. Its not rocket science. !

[Dave The Man]

[Piesnchess]

[Dave The Man]

[swoop42]

We were the youngest premiership team in 32 years.

That is only possible by yes you guessed it having a side stuffed with young talent.

10 to 12 players at least were yet to reach there peak.

Every side losses and gains players each and every year.

We are no different from the Hawthorn and Geelongs of this world in this respect yet they remain strong.

There was no reason to expect such a drastic fall down the ladder and no excuse should it continue.

We have had the same opportunity to refresh the list via the draft and trade for recycled talent that should have kept us super competitive as aging players retired and the young talent peaked and flourished.

We have failed miserably in getting the right experienced players on to our list and it's obvious that Buckley in part at least has been a reason for some premiership players becoming increasingly unhappy in there work place and wishing to depart.

I'm sorry but I'm tired of the excuses.

The list Buckley took over in 2012 was sound and strong.

Outside of Joyce and Scott I can't think of any other coach in modern times who has had the opportunity to take over such a well performed side.

Nearly all first time coaches have to settle for a side struggling in the bottom eight often teams who are in struggle street off field as well.

Entering his 4th season it's time for the coach to deliver and get us heading clearly in the right direction with a much better brand of football on display with a competitive attitude to match.

I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation.

[The_Staunton]

OK, take this in the spirit of reasoned debate, for am I the opposite. I absolutely find no evidence in my heart of hearts than Nathan Buckley can effectively coach the side. And I don't entirely blame him for being so poor lately, but he has to carry the can for a lot of issues.

I don't see what Buckleys "game plan" actually is. As far as I can see, we're in an era of "basketball" - the game is played in spurts and fits, but a lot of the game is played in a lull, waiting for the opposition to turn the ball over. Our continued poor skills (and recruiting poor kicks like Adams and Crisp) just kills us. Even when the opposition turns the ball over, we don't have the structures in place to move the ball directly down the ground. One of three things happens - we turn it over ourselves, we kick it to an 8 on 1 Cloke, or we hang on to because after a and b we're terrified to make a mistake.

We've lost to Hawthorn now 7 times in a row based on this exact game. We've never changed game plan, style, come up with an idea to combat this. It's still long bombs to Cloke, Hawthorn lock it in our 50, then kill us once they win a hard ball in transition. Or we just turn it over and save time. And this is regardless of if its most of 2012 Premiership heroes or a young side. Season 4 and no wonder the Dogs last night found it easy to beat us - you set up a plan like Hawthorn, and it will work. Either as a coach surely he emulates Hawthorn and we move the ball better and stop recruiting bad kicks, or we find a way to beat that style. No evidence at all we're doing either (instead recruiting another bad kick in Crisp).

To me, coaching is about finding ways - finding a way to move the forward line around to make it easy to score for example. We make it look so complicated just to kick a goal. That's without getting onto what the plan is supposed to be at kick outs, defending kick outs, centre clearances...you get the idea.

I'm sorry, I just don't see what the "Buckley style" is supposed to be. Not a clue. To me, the style seems to be

1. High draft picks!
2. ?
3. Profit!

[MatthewBoydFanClub]

I don't know whether Buckley is the right person to coach Collingwood, but I do agree with you that we will know one way or another by the end of the season.
A few points of agreement and and a few points of difference here.
I felt MM was cooked at the end of the 2011 season and the club was right to make the transition to Buckley (MM has shown nothing so far at Carlton). We were beaten by a harder more physical group of midfielders in the Geelong side in the 2011 GF and we are progressing in that department in our recruitment of harder more physical players in the midfield. Buckley was given plenty of time to be groomed as MM's successor.
We have suffered from an inordinate amount of bad luck under Buckley which mitigates the circumstances of our fall down the ladder. We have also let good senior players go to improve our draft position in recruiting the players who will take us to the next premiership.
Now some misgivings about Buckley's performance as a coach. He persisted in playing Dawes as a second tall/relieving ruck despite all evidence that it wasn't going to work. When he realised Dawes's shortcomings in the ruck, he let him go to Melbourne.
He recruited Lynch not as a third tall forward but as a second tall forward relieving ruckman to do the job that Dawes couldn't do. When that didn't work, the club recruited White to do the same thing that Dawes and Lynch couldn't do. I mention this, because my fear is that Buckley doesn't learn from his mistakes and that is fatal for a coach.
I could mention a few other things I don't like about Buckley's coaching as well such as playing Shaw out of the goal square against Monfries in the Port Adelaide elimination game and playing Keeffe as a forward in the same game.
I had hopes for Buckley in NAB1 against Hawthorn where we seemed to have the right forward structures with Gault playing the game in forward line and relieving Grundy in the ruck and I liked him playing DeGoey in the centre midfield. I particularly liked Buckley experimenting with DeGoey as a run with role against Judd in NAB2. However, in NAB3, all that appeared to change with Buckley reverting to the same old familiar old hand roles which failed to work last year and failed to work last night. To me it was inevitable that Bontompelli was going to take us apart last night, just as he took us apart in the Footscray game last year.
So in summary, I'm just not sure that Buckley is going to make it as a coach, but we need to judge him not on his performance in the first couple of games of the season, but by seasons end.

[Dave The Man]

[swoop42]

Yep most of our goals are scrapped together with precious few from precise forward entries and clean ball movement from defence to attack.

That indicates very little in the way of a good game plan to me.

Sides continue to clear our forward 50 with ease after a kick out yet we struggle to clear our defensive one in the same circumstance.

How often how you seen us go coast to coast compared to the opposition?

That indicates very little in the way of a good game plan to me.

These are basic fundamentals of our game yet after 2 years and 3 games very little seems to have improved in these areas.

[Piesnchess]

^ Not really, Jolly was stuffed in 2012, Didak was past it, as was Krak, if they were still good, how come nobody picked them up in the draft ??. Shaw was, and is, a loose cannon, Daisy chased the dollars, with his dodgy ankles, 2012 was the end of an era, bucks had little option but to rebuild the side, even guys like Johnno and Maxy were gone beyond recall. As for the cats and hawks both still rely on a heavily,and rapidly ageing list, the cats stiil rely on stevie J, bartel, lonergan, sellwood, Hawkins, Kelly, etc for their wins, as do the hawks with Mitchell, rioli, hodge, roughead, lake, hale, take them out of the hawks, and itd be very thin on the ground. It will end for those ageing teams, and I put the swans and dockers in that category too. The 2010-11 team was never going to be a dynasty, as we had major playmakers like Didak and Jolly, at the end of the road. Throw in catastrophic injuries, 4 knee recos in one season, Reid, McCaffer etc and no wonder we went down. We have to rebuild from the ground floor up, its the only way to go now, play the kids and get games into them. !

[AN_Inkling]

I mostly agree with the OP, but not with the thread title. The best Buckley has achieved for a season so far is a par effort, with at least 3 of his 4 seasons being a disappointment. How much of a pass we give him for injuries is debatable, but I don't see how there can be any certainty that he is the right man to take us forward. Due to external circumstances we should give him more time to prove himself, but not forever.

And I think it's important to point out that much of the upheaval we have suffered through in these past three years has been due to the handover. Sure, we would have had issues had we not made the mistake of an unconventional coaching change, but I don't think the damage to team culture would have been anything like as great. This is not Buckley's fault, but there is an argument to be made that his handling of the situation has only exacerbated the problem.