Tony Abbott - how long will he last as Prime Minister?

[Donny]

Oh, yes. I stand corrected, Tannin.

[David]

[Culprit]

The Born To Rule Party are lost in their own ideology and self importance. They are the do as I say not as I do Party. I listened to Michael Kroger this morning and he put the Queensland loss down to State issues and that the ALP left had all these lobby groups which the the LNP don't have. Ah yes but the Liberals just have the rich and powerful Then went on to say how Big Ears was such a great bloke. They are out of touch with the people on the street. The Knighthood fiasco merely woke apathetic Australians up.

You cannot keep targeting the poor to reduce debt whilst the rich just keep enjoying their perks. Rich Bean Counters running the country like a business is the LNP way which offers no balance. The Country is divided and the Born To Rule Party just don't realise there are more poor people than there are rich.

I am loving their denials and I hope it keeps up.

[regan is true fullback]

[Lazza]

[regan is true fullback]

Meanwhile in a little Collingwood website far far away, robust discussion occurs. we seem to have given up on Darcy Moore's injuries, Travis's goalkicking, Buckley's coaching and anything else Collingwood, but are just sitting around talking politics, leftie and rightie.

Whether Malcolm becomes the West Wing type pm of our dreams, or whether the Floog does a Bjelke-Peterson and succeeds, in spite of being the most detested man in Australia. Or whether Bill Shorten overcomes his difficulties to be a worthy successor to Chifley and Gough or whether he just becomes another Cocky Calwell, kept around by the conservatives because he's harmless, who knows.

But one thing we must say: " What a big week it's been in politics!" and congratulations for keeping it civil. Magpie supporters may not have all their teeth, but they do have common sense.

[Tannin]

[1061]

One of the Perth backbenchers has come out and said Abbott should step aside.

[Wokko]

[Tannin]

^ The way Tone's going, a joint Wokko-Tannin ticket would trounce Tone.

[sixpoints]

[David]

That's surprising, I have to say. I would have thought the politically smart thing to do would be to wait for this week to blow over and see if Tony's standing in the polls improves.

The only explanation I can think of is that a) they've been reading too many op-ed pieces and have bought into the media hysteria; or b) they have good reason to believe things aren't going to get better. Or perhaps c) these are just MPs who Abbott has screwed over at one point and they're now looking for revenge (obviously the case with Entsch, not sure about the others).

[David]

A quick check confirms my suspicions: these calls are mostly coming from the same people who've publicly opposed Abbott's leadership since late 2013 (some of you might remember Dennis Jensen from this: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-dennis-jensen-hits-out-at-coalition-for-dumping-science-portfolio-20130917-2tw9y.html).

And yep, predictably, Ian MacDonald is getting in on the action as well:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/rebel-mps-challenge-prime-minister-tony-abbott-to-leadership-vote/story-fni0fiyv-1227207065680

The public dissent has to start from somewhere, perhaps, but I suspect news media outlets are making a little more of this story than they should right now. But it wouldn't be like them to try to create a leadership spill out of nothing, would it?

[Tannin]

Bending over too hard trying to be contrary as usual, David.

All of those things you say are doubtless true, but as so often when you go on one of your little orgies of contraryness, you leave stuff out. In this case, you've left out two very important influences:

1: The number of Liberals who are really, really, really pissed off with the iron rule of the unelected Peta Credlin. It is well known that Credlin is the ultimate control freak. She decides what you can say, what you can do, and even who you can employ in your own office. Credlin is Abbott's creature, through and through. Or possibly Abbott is Credlin's creature - it doesn't matter either way 'coz the effect is the same. Many, possibly most Liberal MPs are furious about the way Abbott and Credlin have contrived to impose a harsh bureaucratic discipline on even the most minor aspects of the way they live and do their jobs - furious enough to want to change Abbott for another leader, any other leader.

2: The number of Liberals who are really, really afraid. They can see the polls, they talk to people, they know they are going to get wiped out at the next election under Abbott, their fear is palpable. They have endured the harsh, restrictive and intrusive Credlin discipline. They hate it even more than a Labor man would (Liberal Party members are normally less subject to party discipline than the ALP members), but they put up with it for a long time because they were promised it would get them into office. Now they are in office and not enjoying it and worse, they know they are going to be not just out of office but out of work completely in not much more than a year's time. They are shitting themselves with fear.

The main reason Abbott is still PM is that the party can't decide between Bishop and Turnbull. They can't stand Turnbull, most of them regard Turnbul as a pinko-leftist heretic and they didn't like the way he ran his office when he was leader last time. On the other hand, Bishop isn't anywhere near as likely to pull off the miracle of an election victory. The less bright amongst them look at Bishop's polling and say "she's popular, she can win", the smarter and more fearful ones know that she's never successfully managed a domestic portfolio (Foreign Affairs is easy; it's remote from the massive public pressures of Treasury or Health or Education and largely pressure-free), and she won't be able to sell the toxic brew of massive cutbacks and lies about tax increases which is pretty much all of the Liberal Government policy any more than Abbott could sell it.

They are between a rock and a hard place and they don't know what to do.

[think positive]

Wow, didn't see this coming. Gotta be good news!

(I haven't wathced the news or read a paper in weeks! So no, I didn't see it coming!)