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Tony Abbott - how long will he last as Prime Minister?

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:25 pm
Post subject: Tony Abbott - how long will he last as Prime Minister?Reply with quote

Now "Honest Mal" is being asked to run for leadership. (OMG, I sure hope he gets the nod)

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mal-brough-urged-to-challenge-tony-abbott-for-leadership-20150131-132rfe.html

Mods, I believe this needs a new thread on its own by circumcising bits of the thread "never seen a government lose it's base so fast" & surgically applying it to this thread, as this is current & needs it's a thread devoted to the fortunes & misfortunes of the Mad Misogynist Miners Monk.

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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 06 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:31 pm
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Interesting question WPT!

My view is Abbott will see out 2015 as a change of leadership right now would be far too quick in my opinion for the Liberals. I think if the polls further deteriorate this year for the Liberals and Abbott then I think Julie Bishop or Malcolm Turnbull will challenge for the leadership early next year heading into the 2016 election.

Abbott has been a train wreck without a doubt and his latest blunder with knighting Prince Phillip is the tip of the iceberg. He hasn't only pissed off your typical Labor and Greens voters which most expected he would anyway but his core supporters in conservatives and libertarians are peeved off with him as well. We haven't seen any cuts in taxation and many of his policies in the budget weren't very aligned with the policy visions that voters on the right envisaged in September 2013 when he was first elected. There are only a handful of policies that generally align with what centre-right voters wanted at the last election.

I do think Abbott will not be contesting the next election but I do stand by the belief that he'll be leading the country at the end of this year but whether other sets of events and circumstances play out remains to be seen which may potentially accelerate his demise as leader of the Liberals and the country.

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Wokko Pisces

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Joined: 04 Oct 2005


PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:42 pm
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I don't think there's anyone, anywhere on the political spectrum from National Socialists, through the centre left and centre right, libertarians, communists, Liberal Democrats, Libertarians, Greens, anyone who are in any way happy with Abbott. It takes something truly special to piss off everyone from your most strident supporters to your most hated enemies.

He wont last out the year.
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Dave The Man Scorpio



Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:58 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Shorter the Better though I doubt a Leadership change would stop a 1-Term in change
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:13 pm
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Damned if you do, damned if you don't

The Libs won't want to be seen to be doing the same thing Labor did and knifing a Prime Minister, if there's going to be a change they prefer to "encourage" the current leader to stand down ala Red Ted in Victoria. to get Turnbull that will have to happen because it seems clear at the moment that Turnbull won't challenge.

Hopefully the centre right elements will be able to gangster slap the far right and religious nutjobs back into submission, scrap some the more ridiculous ideological agendas that have continually blown up in their face and get back to basics and pragmatism. If that happens, Turnbull gets the gig.

Bishop is an interesting option, she won't allow the party to throw her under the bus (Kirner, Gillard) and be an ineffectual glove puppet of a leader, if she's in charge she will be in charge and I'm not sure what or how that may work.

So, having not answered the question in any way, basically I don't know and I don't care how long Bud lasts but I do know that while he's there Shortnen Bill is heading to be the next PM and that's enough to make me want to emigrate.

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:22 pm
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I don't think he'll see out the year. Pencil in a leadership challenge for June/July, if not before.
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swoop42 Virgo

Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?


Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:45 pm
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Mal Brough, really?

That's not only a step backwards it's a step backwards that results in you falling off a cliff naked, sliding down on rocks as sharp as razor blades, all the while using your knob as a hand brake and landing in a pool of dettol.

I'd rather a solvol enema that Turnbull would deliver.

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:22 pm
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I think the idea is that Brough will trigger the spill and then stand back and let the big guns duke it out. I don't think anyone seriously thinks he'd actually get the gig.
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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:11 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Crisis meeting this week. The 13% swing to the ALP can't be ignored.
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Tannin Capricorn

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Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:07 pm
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For the Libs, their best bet is to stick with Abbott for as long as possible - say another full year, and only switch to Turnbull, Morrison, or the Asbestos Witch a few months before the election.

They can't afford to leave it so late that the new leader doesn't have time to regain some popularity with two or three major policy backflips to "prove" that he or she is good for Australia and nothing like Abbott/Hockey - for example, introduce a carbon trading scheme, restore funding to the ABC, and abandon the tertiary education cuts. These will have to be serious, big dollar policy announcements and they will have to be actually implemented - no-one is going to fall for more Liberal feel-good promises after the way that Abbott lied his way into office. This will be hard for them: they have to (a) endure another year under the dysfunctional Abbott-Hockey clowns, and (b) swallow some very large and (to them) nasty-tasting policies, and pretend they like it. Make no mistake, if the new leader doesn't do some serious lurching back towards the centre, he or she will never get traction. If he is content to simply inherit Abbott's hard-right policies, he will inherit Abbott's miserable popularity rating too.

If the Libs switch leaders early, they will be in trouble by the time the election comes around. Abbott is the figurehead and the butt of all the jokes, but the engineroom of public resentment is the government's massive cutbacks and inability to think outside the 1950s framework. The new leader, if they switch now, will surge ahead for a while, but gradually fall back towards disasterville as the impact of the Liberal hard-right policies is felt. They have to hit the election with the new leader looking like a breath of fresh air. If they switch too early, they will give the public too much time to figure out that nothing much has changed and that Mr Morrison / Mr Turnbull / Ms Asbestosis is just Abbott Mark II, withsmaller ears and the same terrible policies.

(Of course they could switch leaders and switch their policy agenda to a mild, sensible centre-right steady-as-she-goes direction, and stay in government forever, but the chances of that happening are between nil and zero.)

For Labor, the best outcome would be for Abbott to stay on and get right royally thumped out of office at the election. Second best would be either a last-minute panic Liberal leadership change, or an early change with plenty of time for the public to realise that the new leader is simply Abbott with smaller ears and the hated Liberal policies haven't changed.

(Sorry for the cross-post, but that was buried in the other thread and fits right in here.)

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:09 pm
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Has Abbott been PM all this time? Here I was thinking he was part of a new, low-budget ABC political satire!

Rupert and a handful of other senile elderly folk still think he's a True Blue Aussie Bloke!

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regan is true fullback 



Joined: 27 Dec 2002
Location: Granville. nsw

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:34 pm
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there's more.

Michael Kroger's habit of parachuting spoilt brats into safe Liberal seats has largely been a failure. OK he lucked out with Costello, but the rest of his Andrew Ridgeleys - Bronnie, Sophie Spoilt Princess and Tony have been a blight on this country.
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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:59 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

David wrote:
I don't think he'll see out the year. Pencil in a leadership challenge for June/July, if not before.


I think after tonight you can take a few months off that.

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Donny Aries

Formerly known as MAGFAN8.


Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia

PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:43 am
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How would the Libs do that, considering the vitriol they hurled at Labor over their leadership changes ?
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Tannin Capricorn

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Joined: 06 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:12 am
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^ Same way they do every other backflip and betrayl.
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