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2015 The final eight

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jackcass Cancer



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo

PostPosted: Thu Jan 08, 2015 8:36 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

think positive wrote:
Defender wrote:
What'sinaname wrote:
Lazza wrote:
Defender wrote:
I'll be disappointed if we miss the 8.


Well I think you should get a few boxes of tissues ready then dude!

We will have a "GOOD" developmental/settling down/transformation year but wont make the eight. I say realistically somewhere between 10 - 12th.
I cant see how you can be disappointed if the club clearly shows that it is heading in the right direction with a young talented team gaining great experience all the time to achieve ultimate success in the future years. PATIENCE is what everyone here needs.

I highly doubt that if some posters here are made of the real stuff inside to be patient though.... Rolling Eyes


Agree with you 100%

Woftam points out some concerning stats that outweigh injuries and point to problems with how we are playing football. I think we have 2 years of learning and mastering a new style of football before we are anywhere near competitive. Another 2-3 years of consolidation / development and then maybe a flag in 2019 or 2020.

I don't think people really appreciate our bad or football game plan is at the moment.


Last years stats actually strengthen my argument IMO as we finished a game outside the 8 in spite of those stats, IMO last year (stats wise) was rock bottom, and we've recruited accordingly with an emphasis on foot skills in particular.


Yup. I'm not sure what surprises me more, you being so positive, or me agreeing with you!

But yes yes bloody YESSSSSS!


Twice in 1 thread for me.... this'll end with a deep seated need for therapy... Shocked
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Lazza 



Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:39 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

woftam wrote:
jackcass wrote:
Defender wrote:
Lazza wrote:
Defender wrote:
I'll be disappointed if we miss the 8.


Well I think you should get a few boxes of tissues ready then dude!

We will have a "GOOD" developmental/settling down/transformation year but wont make the eight. I say realistically somewhere between 10 - 12th.
I cant see how you can be disappointed if the club clearly shows that it is heading in the right direction with a young talented team gaining great experience all the time to achieve ultimate success in the future years. PATIENCE is what everyone here needs.

I highly doubt that if some posters here are made of the real stuff inside to be patient though.... Rolling Eyes


We missed the 8 by a game or so last year, a year where injuries weren't kind, our draw is easier this year.

Why won't we improve this year?

What has changed from last year to now?


Sheeesh Laz, Defender showing you up, and even worse, I agree with him Shocked Embarassed

Yes, I know we've lost Maxwell, Lumumba, Ball, Clarke, Beams, Lynch, Hudson, Mooney and Yagmoor but Beams & H are the only 2 to play the majority of 2014.

To balance that Reid, Freeman, Brown, Karnezis, and Oxley should have a more significant impact in 2015 (yes I know there are ??s about Reid). Then there are the Seedsman, Fasolo, Sinclair, Kennedy, Thomas, Swan and Toovey's who had injury interupted season who should also improve.

Why your pessimism?


Lets use some numbers to determine where we sit in compared to last year.

From last year - the positive stats.

Rank 2nd in league for tackles.
Rank 5th in least opponent hit outs.

The negative stats.

Ranked 12th in kicks per game
Ranked 15th in Handballs Per Game
Ranked 14th in Disposals Per Game
Ranked 14th in Marks Per Game
Ranked 15th in Points Per Game
Ranked 17th in Hitouts Per Game
Ranked 15th in least Opponent Kicks Per Game
Ranked 17th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game
Ranked 17th in least Opponent Disposals Per Game
Ranked 17th in least Opponent Marks Per Game
Ranked 14th in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Diff.
Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Handballs Per Game Diff.
Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Diff.
Ranked 15th in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Diff.
Ranked 12th in Team to Opponent Hitouts Per Game Diff.

This confirms my points last year about allowing too much uncontested footy last year. The ball was in the oppositions hands far too much.



Players we lose

Nick Maxwell - 208 games experience - Former skipper & backline general.
Luke Ball - 223 games experience - Granted probably done & dusted but tough as nails.
Dayne Beams - 110 games experience - Copeland winner & prolific ball winner (GUN)
Heritier Lumuba - 199 games experience - played a vital link up role

No need to mention Lynch, Clark etc because they weren't senior selected players most weeks.

That is 740 games of experience in those 4 players alone.

Players we gain

Levi Greenwood - 74 games - hopefully will be a good pick up
Travis Varcoe -138 games - Perhaps a Lumumba replacement with more pace?
Jack Crisp - 18 games - We aren't sure he will be best 22 yet.

These 3 guys come with similar hype to Young & Jessie White. They haven't exactly killed it thus far.

Da Goey, Moore, Scharenberg, Freeman, Marsh, Maynard, Goodyear, Manteit, Abbott all may have plenty of ability but they have not played a single game of AFL football yet. They will need time to develop. 2015 is not the year they will be peaking that's for sure.

I think our list has lots of promise but I'm not sure we should expect too much in 2015.
I think 2016 or 2017 is when our list will mature a little. I'll of course be watching with great interest but if we play finals in 2015 it will be a tremendous effort from all concerned. Doesn't mean I can't wait for the season to begin. The youth at the club is exciting to watch develop.


Using different words and supporting stats, you said exactly what I said in previous posts. This type of opinion is NOT being negative but being realistic about where Collingwood is as a club compared with 17 other clubs. Their promise and potential is unlimited and it is scary how good this team will be in the future years. However as history shows, teams with an influx of many young players need at least a season to learn, develop and be hardened and confident in the team's game plan and tactical know how. 2015 will be a settling down year to learn and develop as a great team. 2016 onwards will reap the fantastic benefits of this learning and development, leading to sustained success. Cool

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Lazza 



Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:57 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Defender wrote:
think positive wrote:
Defender wrote:
What'sinaname wrote:
Lazza wrote:
Defender wrote:
I'll be disappointed if we miss the 8.


Well I think you should get a few boxes of tissues ready then dude!

We will have a "GOOD" developmental/settling down/transformation year but wont make the eight. I say realistically somewhere between 10 - 12th.
I cant see how you can be disappointed if the club clearly shows that it is heading in the right direction with a young talented team gaining great experience all the time to achieve ultimate success in the future years. PATIENCE is what everyone here needs.

I highly doubt that if some posters here are made of the real stuff inside to be patient though.... Rolling Eyes


Agree with you 100%

Woftam points out some concerning stats that outweigh injuries and point to problems with how we are playing football. I think we have 2 years of learning and mastering a new style of football before we are anywhere near competitive. Another 2-3 years of consolidation / development and then maybe a flag in 2019 or 2020.

I don't think people really appreciate our bad or football game plan is at the moment.


Last years stats actually strengthen my argument IMO as we finished a game outside the 8 in spite of those stats, IMO last year (stats wise) was rock bottom, and we've recruited accordingly with an emphasis on foot skills in particular.


Yup. I'm not sure what surprises me more, you being so positive, or me agreeing with you!

But yes yes bloody YESSSSSS!


I'm just laying the foundation for my launch pad if things go awry, Buckley doesn't get a pass if we miss the 8 IMO.


Well THIS is where I heartily disagree with you. I hope your type of thinking is in the vast minority. Collingwood has done the right thing and introduced players for the future. They havent gone for established or reject players from other clubs to cope with the present.
This reminds me very much of the young Collingwood team in 1988 who built on the back of a very fine under 19 team we had at that time. Once we gave those kids experience on the big stage, whammo, flag in 1990!

It would be just incredibly bloody STUPID to upset the apple cart with getting rid of Bucks if they don't make the finals. They will be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. It will be one of the most silliest and dumbest decisions the club has ever made to appease real dumb fans.
Like I said, we need patience and resilience to await our time with this team. Otherwise it will be back to square one yet again............ Rolling Eyes

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jackcass Cancer



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo

PostPosted: Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:48 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

woftam wrote:
Players we lose

Nick Maxwell - 208 games experience - Former skipper & backline general.
Luke Ball - 223 games experience - Granted probably done & dusted but tough as nails.
Dayne Beams - 110 games experience - Copeland winner & prolific ball winner (GUN)
Heritier Lumuba - 199 games experience - played a vital link up role

No need to mention Lynch, Clark etc because they weren't senior selected players most weeks.

That is 740 games of experience in those 4 players alone.


That's the salient point, we've lost a lot of experience and we don't know how it will impact or if the kids and new senior players can cover them. In reality though:

Beams - played 19 of a possible 22. Had a really consistent year and the most significant departure. Goal kicking mids don't grow on trees.
Maxwell - played 10 of 22 games. I know he had a significant impact and it's no mystery that most of those 10 games were wins.
Ball - played 17 of 22. Was clearly hampered and certainly struggled to have consistent input.
Lumumba - played 21 of 22. Played a lot of different roles but certainly didn't have the impact that he'd had in 2013.

And then we had players who didn't have the contributions you'd expect and even when they did play often looked hampered:
Reid - 4 - calf
Brown - 3 - shoulder
Seedsman - 9 - hip
Broomhead - 8 - broken arm
Kennedy - 8 - leg surgery
Sinclair - 5 - hamstring
Fasolo - 12 - feet?
Adams - 12 - finger
Thomas - 13 - hamstring ?
Karnezis - 0 - OP
Freeman - 0 - hamstring
Scharenberg - 0 - feet/ACL
Lynch - 0 - broken leg (not a factor going forward but would have been expected to play some senior footy in 2014)

So while I agree that the new recruits (Greenwood, Varcoe, Crisp) don't offset the lost experience, there is a significant potential performance gain from the other guys still on our list.
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Jezza Taurus

2023 PREMIERS!


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:00 am
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Woods wrote:
Thanks for that. Insightful and leaves me with much to ponder.

Cheers Woods! I'm curious as to whether you agree with my predictions or not!

jackcass wrote:
Good summary.

I have doubts about Adelaide and Freo, think they both lack depth. If they can keep their best on the pitch they'll be competitive but I think they'll still struggle to make the 8.

Think the Doggies will start to assert themselves. Lost Griffen and Cooney but I think their kids will start to shine. Not expecting Boyd to have an immediate impact but he'll still take a good opponent.

St Kilda will start to see the benefit of a couple of really good years at the ND & trade tables. May need 1 more development year but could equally start to climb.

Carlton traded very well, it will be interesting to see if it's enough to make them more competitive.

Overall, I think the 2015 season will be a lot closer than any we've seen before. There will be a lot more upsets and teams will lament a missed opportunity here or there costing them finals opportunities.

I have big doubts over Fremantle because of their ageing list but I think with the Crows as they long don't sustain too many injuries I think they will thrive under a new coach who will bring them new ideas and philosophies especially since Phil Walsh has come from a rising club in Port Adelaie.

The Doggies have a lot of good kids coming through but I don't think they're at a stage to impose themselves just yet especially with a new coach at the helm. The losses of Cooney, Griffen and Giansiracusa are massive for their experience and leadership so I expect them to struggle again but there future is brighter than a lot of other sides I can see.

St.Kilda will struggle again and they'll be wooden spooners but their emphasis on drafting young kids is a step in the right direction for them and they'll be hoping to make some progress come the end of the year.

Carlton I don't rate at all but I do acknowledge the fact that they lost some close games hence their supporters think they'll finish higher than expected. They've done reasonably well in trading and drafting but they still haven't completely cut out their deadwood from their list just yet.

It'll be interesting to see if it's a close season or not. I still think the top three in Port Adelaide, Sydney and Hawthorn are the main contenders of the Premiership and a class above everyone else at this stage.

Lazza wrote:
In almost total agreement, however I think the scum will end up higher than 17 unfortunately. Crying or Very sad Richmond will make the 8 in place of Adelaide.

As for Collingwood, I think this will be a settling down and learning year for the younger magpies who will be our stars of the future (2017 onwards). I think Buck's is definitely on the right track and hopefully will keep his job even if the pies realistically dont make the finals but show enough potential to develop into a top team in the following years.

Now this is the REALLY difficult part, asking posters at Nick's to be patient this year!! Shocked Some unrealistic idiot will want the 'pies to win the flag in 2015 and anything less will lead to a revolution.

If this happens, Collingwood will only slide further down the ladder in the famous more haste, less speed manner of speaking. Long term success with almost anything requires time and patience. Planning for instant success will only set you up for years of failure to achieve that success. Rolling Eyes

Yes I agree Lazza!

The problem is that too many people place high expectations on the team but there's no evidence especially from the second half of the year last year that we will play finals football this year but I hope to be proven wrong.

It frustrates me that the same people who place high expectations on the team during the off-season end up being disappointed and lash out in the middle of the year due to these high expectations. That's why I've always taken the mantra of 'expect the worst, hope for the best'. It's not a great mindset admittedly but it does save you from disappointment and in the event you're proven wrong it's pleasant surprise for yourself and many who have the same mindset.

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Hiss Taurus



Joined: 09 Jul 2003
Location: Geelong

PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:35 pm
Post subject: YesReply with quote

1. Port Adelaide
2. Geelong
3. Richmond
4. Freemantle
5. Hawthorn
6. Carlton
7. Sydney
8. West Coast
9. Melbourne
10.North Melbourne
11.GWS
12. Brisbane
13. GCS
14. Bulldogs
15. Collingwood
16. Adelaide

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Mossi Leo



Joined: 20 May 2002
Location: Vittorio Veneto TV Italy

PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:50 pm
Post subject: Re: YesReply with quote

Hiss wrote:
1. Port Adelaide
2. Geelong
3. Richmond
4. Freemantle
5. Hawthorn
6. Carlton
7. Sydney
8. West Coast
9. Melbourne
10.North Melbourne
11.GWS
12. Brisbane
13. GCS
14. Bulldogs
15. Collingwood
16. Adelaide


Hiss you got the C right for two teams but got the rest of the letters wrong! Wink
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Jezza Taurus

2023 PREMIERS!


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:26 am
Post subject: Re: YesReply with quote

Hiss wrote:
1. Port Adelaide
2. Geelong
3. Richmond
4. Freemantle
5. Hawthorn
6. Carlton
7. Sydney
8. West Coast
9. Melbourne
10.North Melbourne
11.GWS
12. Brisbane
13. GCS
14. Bulldogs
15. Collingwood
16. Adelaide


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JC Hartley Cancer

16 premierships now in the history books. Let's be the first club to 17 premierships.


Joined: 22 Dec 2008
Location: South Yarra

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 1:21 pm
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You must be a very clumsy man Hiss. Firstly, you disparage our club and then you don't bother to tell us where the Bombers & Saints finish. Go back to school!
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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:49 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Every year there are two or three big surprises. A club bolts into contention from nowhere (like Port last year) and one or two other well-fancied clubs drop down like stones (last year it was Collingwood and Adelaide).

Every year, most of the pundits pick the same sides that did well last year, and every year they are wrong about one or two of them - but which two? That's always the hard bit. The safe prediction strategy is to stick with last year's form and accept that you'll be caught by the bolter and the big sliders. You hope that no-one will notice 'coz they are all feeling just as bad about their own failures, and everyone conspires to pretend that the bolter and the sliders are huge and extraordinary surprises which would have confounded anyone. This makes us feel better about our mistakes. In reality, there are bolters and sliders every year, and they are always hard to pick. I don't think anyone regularly gets them right and most people don't even try .... but where is the fun in that? Hang on to your technicals, let's have a crack at it.


1). Hawthorn - Good for one last year before age destroys them.
2). Port Adelaide - What Jezza said - a side that is ready to hit its peak.
3). Richmond - Richmond has matured. They are contenders.
4. Fremantle - Will make the finals easily on the back of their geriatric champions .... and then go out in straight sets 'coz they are just too old and the bodies won't stand up to it. Freo are history. They won't make the finals again for years.

5). Gold Coast - Provided they can recover from their own stupidity in sacking a very good coach on the cusp of success, GC will be a major power.
6). Collingwood - This young side will click one day, when it finally learns how to send the pill into the forward line, and when it does, it will be unstoppable. This year or next year? When will we finally get it? I'm punting sooner rather than later. This will be the last great year for Swan and maybe Cloke, and the first great year for Witts, Broomhead, Adams, Williams, and Elliott. I like that combination. We could go places.
7). North Melbourne - Will make the eight and might even win a final. Hard to see them going past that level though.
8). Geelong - When the end comes, it comes fast. Geelong won't be the power side they have been but will still knock over enough easy-beats to make the finals. Just.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9). Adelaide - Adelaide is the new Ninthmond.
10). GWS - Be afraid. Be very afraid. But not yet.
11). Brisbane - On the way up, unfortunately.
12). Sydney - Smashed by their Grand Final humiliation, Sydney will struggle for mojo all year.
13). Essendon - They can't keep running forever on fumes and self-delusion. Like West Coast, they'll have a few great wins .... and a lot of disappointments.
14). West Coast - What Jezza said. They haven't got the midfield to amount to much.

15). Melbourne - Who cares?
16. St.Kilda - Will improve. Can't get any worse!
17). Carlton - A team on the way up. On current indications, they could be ready to challenge for the final eight as early as 2042.
18). Footscray - Massive upheavals in the post-season there revealed a deeply unhappy club. Will they improve now that they have lanced the boil? Or get even worse? I'm betting worse.

Preliminary finals to be played between Hawthorn, Port, Richmond, and Collingwood. Hawthorn v either Port or Richmond in the Grand Final, Hawthorn to win.

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:58 pm
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I can't see us in the 8 this year. Next year I think will will be in a (much) better position. Assuming all things being equal, I reckon 2015 we will be 10th. Would love to be proved wrong.

It's stating the obvious however, call me captain:

Assuming a reasonable run with injuries (I know - a huge assumption):

It's the 2 R's for me ( & Not Rocket Ronnie)

1. Reid &
2. Rucks

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Lazza 



Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:15 pm
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Jezza wrote:
Yes I agree Lazza!


The problem is that too many people place high expectations on the team but there's no evidence especially from the second half of the year last year that we will play finals football this year but I hope to be proven wrong.

It frustrates me that the same people who place high expectations on the team during the off-season end up being disappointed and lash out in the middle of the year due to these high expectations. That's why I've always taken the mantra of 'expect the worst, hope for the best'. It's not a great mindset admittedly but it does save you from disappointment and in the event you're proven wrong it's pleasant surprise for yourself and many who have the same mindset.[/quote]

I keep on repeating it, unrealistic expectations ONLY set you up for failure. All fans are unrealistic and biased towards their own team but in my experience, Collingwood fans are the worst. What gets me is that when these unrealistic expectations are NOT realised, these fools ask for the coach/Prez/CEO/runner/boot studder to be sacked!! They want others sacked because THEY were wrong!! FFS, cant they admit that it might have had something to do with their wishful thinking rather than eliminate a team progressing towards ultimate success at the pace they can? Grrr..........!! Any wonder others laugh at some Magpie fans and their stupidity!!! We deserve this ridicule sometimes for being so naive.

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didick 

didick


Joined: 17 Jun 2009
Location: Brisbane

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:41 pm
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1. Port Adelaide
2. Sydney
3. Fremantle
4. Hawthorn
5. North Melbourne
6. Essendon
7. Collingwood
8. Richmond
9. Adelaide
10. West Coast
11. Geelong
12. Gold Coast
13. Brisbane
14. Carlton
15. GWS
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Melbourne
18. St Kilda (yay)

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:52 pm
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Lazza, how many games has Buckley won this year? None. Zip. Nada. Zero. Zilch. He clearly has to go.
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jackcass Cancer



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:48 pm
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Tannin wrote:
Lazza, how many games has Buckley won this year? None. Zip. Nada. Zero. Zilch. He clearly has to go.


Laughing Laughing Embarassed
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