ISIS
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pietillidie
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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And that, of course, was the goal all along. What they needed was a jolly good war and a bit of a national security panic at home, and they accomplished both.
This is no conspiracy theory; as the cartoon suggests, it's just basic politics. Worrying that more people can't see that.
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watt price tully 
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Exactamundo
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Jezza 
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http://english.alara...air-strike.html
The caliph of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi is reportedly said to be "critically wounded" by air-strikes on the weekend. Other senior IS members have also been reportedly injured or killed as a result of these air-strikes.
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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http://pando.com/2014/11/10/the-war-nerd-farewell-islamic-state-we-hardly-knew-ye/
| Quote: | So the dream that powered Islamic State to its ephemeral victories last summer was the same one that will bring it down. You get that in war. That Hitler guy, for onehad a great plan up through 1940, but the same amphetamine-fueled can-do spirit that got him his free tour of Paris brought him up against Stalingrad a little while later. One reason great leaders are so rare is that they have to pivot, at exactly the right moment, from wild-eyed gambler to cunning, cautious miser. Not many can manage that, and theres absolutely no sign that the men who run Islamic State have that kind of discipline. Theyre going to keep pushing their luck, and theyre already losing.
Its possible, of course, that if Al Baghdadi is deadwhich I doubthell be replaced by a cautious, disciplined guy. In which case, this will be a disastrous assassination. But most likely, hes alive, and hasnt learned a thing. In fact, thats the advantage of having a religious imperative backing your overconfidence: He cant even allow himself to doubt or hedge his bets. His divine backer demands that he over-extend his reach. And its not hard to see how that will come out.
Islamic State will fall, but that wont really end anything, because like the LTTE, the militia is one of a long series that have been set up by the ethnic group. Tamils in Sri Lanka are still around, even though the LTTE is dead-dead-deadsky, and the Sunni Arabs of Syria/Iraq arent going to go away, or turn all Bahai-nice, just because IS overreaches and falls.
But no matter who died or didnt die in that airstrike, weve seen the high-water mark of Islamic State. |
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think positive
Side By Side
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Well that's good news
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swoop42 
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
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There is a program on SBS tonight at 9:50 titled "The rise of ISIS" for those interested.
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think positive
Side By Side
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is it like the rise of the machines??
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Jezza
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| David wrote: | http://pando.com/2014/11/10/the-war-nerd-farewell-islamic-state-we-hardly-knew-ye/
| Quote: | So the dream that powered Islamic State to its ephemeral victories last summer was the same one that will bring it down. You get that in war. That Hitler guy, for onehad a great plan up through 1940, but the same amphetamine-fueled can-do spirit that got him his free tour of Paris brought him up against Stalingrad a little while later. One reason great leaders are so rare is that they have to pivot, at exactly the right moment, from wild-eyed gambler to cunning, cautious miser. Not many can manage that, and theres absolutely no sign that the men who run Islamic State have that kind of discipline. Theyre going to keep pushing their luck, and theyre already losing.
Its possible, of course, that if Al Baghdadi is deadwhich I doubthell be replaced by a cautious, disciplined guy. In which case, this will be a disastrous assassination. But most likely, hes alive, and hasnt learned a thing. In fact, thats the advantage of having a religious imperative backing your overconfidence: He cant even allow himself to doubt or hedge his bets. His divine backer demands that he over-extend his reach. And its not hard to see how that will come out.
Islamic State will fall, but that wont really end anything, because like the LTTE, the militia is one of a long series that have been set up by the ethnic group. Tamils in Sri Lanka are still around, even though the LTTE is dead-dead-deadsky, and the Sunni Arabs of Syria/Iraq arent going to go away, or turn all Bahai-nice, just because IS overreaches and falls.
But no matter who died or didnt die in that airstrike, weve seen the high-water mark of Islamic State. |
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Thanks for linking the article David. A few points I'd like to make from the article:
| Quote: | | Suddenly, Islamic State just cant fall fast enough. All summer, the press has been saying IS will soon be accepting the keys to every city on earth, an unstoppable jihadi juggernaut. |
By the mainstream media, there has been this consenus that ISIS is an 'unstoppable jihadi juggernaut'. I can't disagree with that statement the author is making but its progress in June in seizing land was quite remarkable and very surprising but since then they've made little progress beyond pro-Sunni areas, I do think the group is overhyped by mainstream media around the world.
| Quote: | | ISIS thrives in poor, Sunni Arab areasBut after months of steady expansion, the Islamic State has taken most of these areas in Iraq while failing to seize areas with non-Sunni populations. |
Absolutely spot on and yes it is true that ISIS thrived and was able to gain territory in Sunni Arab areas and some Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish towns. One thing that the author of this article could have also noted was that ISIS' ability to capture Iraqi cities like Mosul, Tikrit and Samara wouldn't have been possible without the assistance of other smaller Sunni militia groups like the 1920 Revolution Brigade and Jaish al-Mujahideen.
| Quote: | | But he created the first really effective Sunni-Arab militia to operate across the Iraq/Syria border, eliminated hundreds of competing Sunni militias, and scared the Iraqi Army out of the western desert. So either he, or some nameless cadre working with him, had serious organisational talent. |
It's difficult to determine why ISIS was successful in terms of its leadership capabilities but it's fair to say it's a mixture of things.
Firstly, people in Sunni Arab areas especially in Iraq were disillusioned of the Iraqi leadership of Nouri al-Maliki who's obviously a Shia politician who's given greater benefits towards his own people but effectively alienated the Sunni populations of Iraq hence the protests we saw from Sunni Arabs in Iraq in 2012-2013.
Another reason may be the leadership at the top might be grossly underestimated and has been huge in ISIS' initial success and most likely effective propaganda techniques have galvanised fighters and united the group at certain stages. However, I believe that sectarianism has been the major catalyst for ISIS' success in seizing territory in parts of Syria and Iraq and controlling the borders between those two countries.
| Quote: | | Even without nonstop decimation via air attack, a universal caliphate is a doomed, dumb idea. |
Some would argue that establishing a caliphate was the beginning of ISIS downfall in terms of seizing further territory and in the process it gained international attention from everyone and put them in the spotlight. Apart from the region itself, the group had been going under the radar internationally speaking.
It could also be argued that by actually having to maintain government institutions in the cities it captured, not just fight its way around the country that the group's purpose and aim has deviated away from it's original premise of just fighting other groups and governments rather than actually setting up institutions to support people in the regions its captured. There's been stories by people in Mosul (the second largest city) in Iraq that many citizens are unhappy with the living conditions under IS control and that life isn't much better for them compared to the life they had under al-Maliki.
The other potential downfall of ISIS may be the rising disillusionment of Sunni Muslims living in these regions but I'm sure that with effective propaganda techniques and ISIS ability to instil fear by committing atrocious acts of violence, this has resulted those to be too afraid to rise up and voice discontent in these regions against ISIS.
| Quote: | | Its possible, of course, that if Al Baghdadi is deadwhich I doubthell be replaced by a cautious, disciplined guy. |
Assuming Al-Baghdadi is dead, I'm certain that the group has a replacement in mind unless they were too stupid to work out that the death of their leader could possibly occur especially in a region where war is on the forefront of everything.
Possible candidates of replacing Al-Baghdadi assuming he's dead include Omar Al-Shishani (a prominent Chechen fighter from Georgia), Shakir Wahiyib (who's the leader of the Anbar province in Iraq that ISIS has seized) and possibly Abu Mohammad al-Adnani. At the moment it's pure speculation and Al-Baghdadi may be alive and well.
| Quote: | | Islamic State will fall |
I don't think ISIS will simply fall and completely disintegrate. It could easily comeback under a different name and merge with other militia groups assuming this did occur and at the present time it's arguably the richest terrorist group in the world making much of its money from extortion, religious taxes, robbing local banks and using the black market to sell off gas and oil resources in the area. The US and its allies can easily halt the group's advances around the region but to say the group will disappear completely or just be disintegrated is wishful thinking.
ISIS may very well fall but if the problems of sectarian tension isn't addressed, a repeat of future wars in Iraq will simply be inevitable unfortunately. In regards to Syria, that's a more complex issue and that requires a separate discussion all together as that involves multiple parties vying for or retaining power within the country. Even though this link is short and brief it does outline some interesting points about why the process of ISIS falling isn't as simple as it's made out to be.
http://www.vox.com/cards/isis-myths-iraq/us-obama-ISIS
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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^Jezza, as an aside, can I query you on something?
Not to break your balls (if I may use what is no doubt one of Tannin's favourite Americanisms), I can remember people like the late Christopher Hitchens talking with similar detail about goings on in that part of the world. However, after three minutes of digging around it soon became apparent that he and all the people he got his information from, and all the people in his circles, and all the people wearing glasses pretending to be smart, were using either information direct from the halls of the US Government Creative PR Department, or the old "no one can check if we're wrong, so all we need to do is say this with confidence and repeat it enough times and it will become 'true enough'" approach to international journalism.
And you can always find that out easy enough because there never is any hard evidence, just a first mention somewhere or a secret source, like an alien sighting or a contact with the dead.
Where does this information come from, and can you confirm how factual you think it is? 80%? 30%? Anywhere from 10%-60%?
To take one example I know absolutely nothing about, why do you "doubt" Al Baghdadi is dead? Is that like doubting Elvis is dead? Or do you mean someone else wrote that they doubt he is dead? And when you say you "doubt" it, what sort of degree of "doubt" do you have? Is it the same as saying you're 50% sure he's alive?
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Jezza
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| pietillidie wrote: | ^Jezza, as an aside, can I query you on something?
Not to break your balls (if I may use what is no doubt one of Tannin's favourite Americanisms), I can remember people like the late Christopher Hitchens talking with similar detail about goings on in that part of the world. However, after three minutes of digging around it soon became apparent that he and all the people he got his information from, and all the people in his circles, and all the people wearing glasses pretending to be smart, were using either information direct from the halls of the US Government Creative PR Department, or the old "no one can check if we're wrong, so all we need to do is say this with confidence and repeat it enough times and it will become 'true enough'" approach to international journalism.
And you can always find that out easy enough because there never is any hard evidence, just a first mention somewhere or a secret source, like an alien sighting or a contact with the dead.
Where does this information come from, and can you confirm how factual you think it is? 80%? 30%? Anywhere from 10%-60%?
To take one example I know absolutely nothing about, why do you "doubt" Al Baghdadi is dead? Is that like doubting Elvis is dead? Or do you mean someone else wrote that they doubt he is dead? And when you say you "doubt" it, what sort of degree of "doubt" do you have? Is it the same as saying you're 50% sure he's alive? |
No worries about this query PTID.
In regards to the information, I can't say with certainty that it is 100% accurate and I don't proclaim to be an expert on this issue but I'd like to think that I'm well-informed enough to provide an opinion on these matters due to a good amount research on this topic I'm interested in learning more about. I've used a vast array of sources to compile such a response that I demonstrated earlier.
Sources include news sources (Western and Arab news sources), UN Human Rights Reports which have documented the lifestyles that are existent in IS controlled regions and how human rights abuses have been extensive, books on the history of Syria and Iraq to gain greater knowledge on the backgrounds of these two countries, peer-reviewed journal articles on the region (unfortunately there haven't been too many articles on ISIS since this is a relatively new issue and problem for the region) and alleged ISIS manifestos that are documented online (this is the most uncertain type of source and it's hard to determine whether it's valid or not).
Secondly, in regards to your question about Al-Baghdadi it is the author of this article that David has linked that has 'doubts' about whether Al-Baghdadi is actually dead, so I don't want to be misquoted as saying that I'm the one with 'doubt'. In my personal opinion I'm not so sure whether he is dead or alive at the present time. Numerous sources suggest he's been 'wounded' but how true that is remains to be seen in the near future and hence I don't have too much to say on this specific matter until more of it is spoken about and confirmed one way or another.
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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^You're always a great sport, Jezza. I was pushing you on this because you'll get more important people than me question you on the precise details before too long. You've probably noticed I'm a hugely skeptical about what passes as "knowledge" these days.
That's not having a dig at you specifically, because I know you're diligent; I just I worry some of the teachers around rising thinkers like you and David are sloppy, and if you take on their standards you'll end up better at media and internet chess than serious analysis.
Keep kicking goals with your study and please don't take my questions the wrong way; you're an impressively sincere and smart young man.
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Jezza
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Cheers PTID! I definitely didn't take your questions the wrong way at all! 
| swoop42 wrote: | | There is a program on SBS tonight at 9:50 titled "The rise of ISIS" for those interested. |
Thanks for the notice on Sunday Swoop. I ended up watching it last night online and it was an interesting documentary with generally accurate information and recounts. From what I could gather from it, these were the key points that were made:
1). Former Iraq leader, Nouri Al-Maliki (Shia politician) was a massive reason for the 'rise of ISIS' as his policies and treatment of Sunnis alienated them in the community and some of these Sunnis took up arms with dangerous terrorist groups like ISIS.
2). This is probably the most contestable point of the whole documentary but it is suggested that ISIS wouldn't have thrived in these areas without the Syrian Civil War breaking out. It's hard to determine how true this is but it does ponder some more questions about how much the Syrian Civil War contributed to this rise.
3). ISIS is the first terrorist group to actually establish a caliphate and to seize territory to set up institutions for the people living in these areas controlled by the group.
4). Sectarianism is a massive issue for both Syria and Iraq, but especially in Iraq and ISIS have been able to thrive in conditions where sectarian tensions are prevalent.
Overall, it was an interesting documentary and it mainly highlighted the ways ISIS started to grow and become a bigger presence in the region. There was very little discussed on the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the history of Syria and Iraq prior to 2003 which I think is vital to understand the objectives of what ISIS want to achieve and why Iraq is the way it is today.
The documentary mainly outlines the events from when the US completely withdrew its ground forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 to the present day.
Here's a link of the documentary and for those who want to watch, I should warn you that there is some graphic footage.
http://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/351554115825/The-Rise-Of-Isis
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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Um, hang on, ISIS has established a 'caliphate'?
As the saying doesn't go, two swallows don't make a summer!
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Tannin 
Can't remember
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| Jezza wrote: | | 3). ISIS is the first terrorist group to actually establish a caliphate and to seize territory to set up institutions for the people living in these areas controlled by the group. |
Provided we interpret "caliphate" to mean something like "self-governing state under a ruler", this would have to be one of the most absurd claims I've seen in quite a while. Did they provide any justification for this amazing claim? It would be time-consuming but not at all difficult to come up with dozens of counter-examples from history, probably many hundreds of them. Is there something special about the rise of ISIS that they haven't mentioned? Or are they just terminally ignorant about history? Or, perhaps, they actually mean "first in the Middle-east since some arbitrary (and very recent) date" or they are ruling out all the many, many other examples of the same thing through some other technicality. Failing some as-yet-unprovided explanation, that claim is and can only be major-league horseshit.
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