ISIS
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3.14159 
Joined: 12 Sep 2009
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Great article, 3. Required reading for anyone casually following this conflict.
Loved this final paragraph in particular:
| Waleed Aly wrote: | | It takes a special kind of ideologically induced amnesia to ignore all this. It's an amnesia that takes centre stage in the American Republican party and the lunatic fringe of our own Coalition. But if Malcolm Turnbull is to be believed, this amnesia is not taking hold of Western leaders more generally. That's because they understand IS isn't a player. It's the Middle East's illegitimate child: a byproduct of the power vacuums of a broken region. It exists because it gets lost amid the much bigger fights going on around it – you know, between armies that actually have planes to shoot down. And you can do what you will to IS. Until those bigger fights are somehow resolved, there will always be a byproduct. |
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All watched over by machines of loving grace
Last edited by David on Sat Nov 28, 2015 9:02 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| Thanks for your support. What do you really want to ask me? |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| David wrote: | Great article, 3. Required reading for anyone casually following this conflict.
Loved this final paragraph in particular:
| Waleed Aly wrote: | | It takes a special kind of ideologically induced amnesia to ignore all this. It's an amnesia that takes centre stage in the American Republican party and the lunatic fringe of our own Coalition. But if Malcolm Turnbull is to be believed, this amnesia is not taking hold of Western leaders more generally. That's because they understand IS isn't a player. It's the Middle East's illegitimate child: a byproduct of the power vacuums of a broken region. It exists because it gets lost amid the much bigger fights going on around it – you know, between armies that actually have planes to shoot down. And you can do what you will to IS. Until those bigger fights are somehow resolved, there will always be a byproduct. |
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It's been established that the West can't 'fix' the middle east though. It may well be broken, possibly beyond repair in general but certainly beyond the west to repair.
However, the illegitimate child can be put down, as can it's as yet unborn siblings in their turn, until the region either does get repaired enough or totally self destructs.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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The Prototype 
Paint my face with a good-for-nothin smile.
Joined: 23 Apr 2003
Location: Hobart, Tasmania
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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It is a good article, from an intelligent and balanced writer. But I think its main premise is wrong.
Calling ISIS a by-product suggests that it cannot be dealt with unless you deal with the overarching cause. That probably sits well with his presumably pacifist readership, but not all by-products are the same, and this one is so extremely toxic that it may have to be sterilised by force eventually.
With the right weight of infantry, I suspect a multinational force would obliterate this half-trained pack of pick-up riding sadists quickly. Arguably it was the withdrawal of US forces that created the space for ISIS, and exterminating it and re-imposing some security may be necessary to remove the threat. We just do not - yet - have the stomach for the cost in blood, treasure and sickening images.
Part of the "by-product" argument, I think, is that destroying ISIS will only bring something worse in its place : An Assad victory ? More radicalisation ? More desperate people ? Well, those who would be radicalised by the destruction of ISIS will probably do so anyway. Assad will hold on, with Russian support. And ISIS is itself a major (though not the only) creator of desperation and displacement. Perhaps another ISIS would rise in the place of a destroyed one, and some Sunni insurgency is probably inevitable in Iraq and Syria, but it does not have to be as toxic as the IS variant. Sometimes the devil you don't know really is a better bet than the devil you do.
I am not yet at the point where I believe that real military action - involving troops at scale - is necessary, but IF we cannot secure our borders and prevent Paris-style assassinations, then it is an option that must be considered. If some of our children must die, I would prefer it be young men with body armour and weapons who might accomplish something, rather than unarmed kids at concerts and diners, whose deaths represent a kind of victory-by-fear for the jihadis.
Waleed Ali is a sincere fellow, but sometimes in this world you encounter real, serious evil that wants to hurt you, and you have to ruthlessly defend yourself against it, rather than just philosophise about it. Not there yet, and we should not rush to it. But we should not tell ourselves that it is out of the question.
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Two more flags before I die! |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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3.14159
Joined: 12 Sep 2009
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| David wrote: | Great article, 3. Required reading for anyone casually following this conflict.
Loved this final paragraph in particular:
| Waleed Aly wrote: | | It takes a special kind of ideologically induced amnesia to ignore all this. It's an amnesia that takes centre stage in the American Republican party and the lunatic fringe of our own Coalition. But if Malcolm Turnbull is to be believed, this amnesia is not taking hold of Western leaders more generally. That's because they understand IS isn't a player. It's the Middle East's illegitimate child: a byproduct of the power vacuums of a broken region. It exists because it gets lost amid the much bigger fights going on around it – you know, between armies that actually have planes to shoot down. And you can do what you will to IS. Until those bigger fights are somehow resolved, there will always be a byproduct. |
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I'm glad you liked it, his reference to the "regions almost insatiable appetite for carnage" and the complexities of sorting out the mess go well beyond chanting 3 word slogans and political posturing.
This poll to me at least is an encouraging sign that the public want a negotiated settlement to this ongoing Iliad of woes.
| Quote: | Western populations have tired of war – a fact reflected in an Essential poll this week revealing that even so soon after Paris, fewer than a third of Australians want to see us step up our military involvement. But even more seriously, there's the stench of futility here. That same poll has only 17 per cent of us believing it would even make us safer if we did, and 45 per cent believing the opposite.
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3.14159
Joined: 12 Sep 2009
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| stui magpie wrote: |
However, the illegitimate child can be put down, as can it's as yet unborn siblings in their turn, until the region either does get repaired enough or totally self destructs. |
I'm not having a go (and I know you did mean it literally) but illegitimate children cannot (should not) be "put down" just because of who there parents are/were.
Sunni are the majority in Syria and they have been oppressed for years by the (near) secular Bathist party. In Iraq it was minority Sunni's that oppressed the majority Shites and the Kurds in the north.
If we want a workable solution to the crisis in Syria (and Iraq) we have to offer the Sunnis of Syria a say in their own geo-political future.
Until the dae that all parties sit down around a table the appetite for carnage will continue to blight this world.
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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'My' 0.015% figure only refers to ISIS. There are other nasty militant Islamic forces out there like Boko Haram (who I'm guessing would have been responsible for this tragedy) which would obviously increase that percentage. But when the biggest one right now can only muster 0.015% of the Muslim world, it gives you a sense of the scale we're dealing with here.
(By the way, the upper estimate of Boko Haram's membership is 9000, a mere 0.0006% of the world's Muslim population. Yes, that's the right number of zeros.)
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| David wrote: |
'My' 0.015% figure only refers to ISIS. There are other nasty militant Islamic forces out there like Boko Haram (who I'm guessing would have been responsible for this tragedy) which would obviously increase that percentage. But when the biggest one right now can only muster 0.015% of the Muslim world, it gives you a sense of the scale we're dealing with here.
(By the way, the upper estimate of Boko Haram's membership is 9000, a mere 0.0006% of the world's Muslim population. Yes, that's the right number of zeros.) |
depends on what you read...
Reliable estimates of Boko Haram’s strength do not exist. The group tolerates no independent reporting from the areas it controls, and military accounts are equally inaccurate and unreliable.
Local and international experts put the number at anywhere between 5,000 and 50,000 active fighters.
However many there are, they keep on getting more active...
The devastating toll of terror attacks is laid bare today with a shocking study revealing the number of people slaughtered worldwide has risen by 80 per cent in a year.
A total of 32,658 people were killed by terrorists around the world in 2014 - an 80 per cent increase on the previous year, according to the Global Terrorism Index.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3322308/Number-people-killed-terrorists-worldwide-soars-80-just-year.html
2015 = ??? how big an increase, maybe the 0.015% have reached their maximum... me thinks not.
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Don't count the days, make the days count.
Last edited by Skids on Sun Nov 29, 2015 1:35 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| 3.14159 wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: |
However, the illegitimate child can be put down, as can it's as yet unborn siblings in their turn, until the region either does get repaired enough or totally self destructs. |
I'm not having a go (and I know you did mean it literally) but illegitimate children cannot (should not) be "put down" just because of who there parents are/were.
Sunni are the majority in Syria and they have been oppressed for years by the (near) secular Bathist party. In Iraq it was minority Sunni's that oppressed the majority Shites and the Kurds in the north.
If we want a workable solution to the crisis in Syria (and Iraq) we have to offer the Sunnis of Syria a say in their own geo-political future.
Until the dae that all parties sit down around a table the appetite for carnage will continue to blight this world.
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Fair points, I was using the term "illegitimate child" as a direct reference to Aly's description of ISIS as the illegitimate child of the middle east.
My stance wasn't about who the child's parents were, purely on the child (ISIS) itself and the reference to as yet unborn siblings to the other terrorist groups that will no doubt spawn in the region if ISIS is destroyed and stability isn't regained.
To get stability, at least from an absolute layman's perspective, there somehow needs to be a space for each of the differing groups. Sunni's, Shiites, Kurds, bathists etc. They all seem to want to have control of their own destiny and none like having any of the others in control.
So, like children (while the metaphor is on) if they can't play nice with others maybe they just need to be separated.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| Skids wrote: | | David wrote: |
'My' 0.015% figure only refers to ISIS. There are other nasty militant Islamic forces out there like Boko Haram (who I'm guessing would have been responsible for this tragedy) which would obviously increase that percentage. But when the biggest one right now can only muster 0.015% of the Muslim world, it gives you a sense of the scale we're dealing with here.
(By the way, the upper estimate of Boko Haram's membership is 9000, a mere 0.0006% of the world's Muslim population. Yes, that's the right number of zeros.) |
depends on what you read...
Reliable estimates of Boko Haram’s strength do not exist. The group tolerates no independent reporting from the areas it controls, and military accounts are equally inaccurate and unreliable.
Local and international experts put the number at anywhere between 5,000 and 50,000 active fighters.
However many there are, they keep on getting more active...
The devastating toll of terror attacks is laid bare today with a shocking study revealing the number of people slaughtered worldwide has risen by 80 per cent in a year.
A total of 32,658 people were killed by terrorists around the world in 2014 - an 80 per cent increase on the previous year, according to the Global Terrorism Index.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3322308/Number-people-killed-terrorists-worldwide-soars-80-just-year.html
2015 = ??? how big an increase, maybe the 0.015% have reached their maximum... me thinks not. |
I got my statistic from Wikipedia – the estimate there was 500 – 9000. Probably a more reliable source than the Daily Mail, dare I say, but even if they're right (and we go with that maximum figure), we're still talking about only a fifth of the maximum ISIS membership – a grand total of 0.003% of the overall Muslim population.
I was having a look at the US State Department's list of Islamic terrorist organisations today, and of the 20 or so there I think it's safe to say the majority of them have less than 10,000 members. The only really big ones apart from Boko Haram (if that high number is to be believed) are ISIS (257,900) and Al-Qaeda, including all their regional affiliates (27,315). If you add them all up together, I'm not sure we'd even get to 0.04% of the Muslim population, or 1 in 2500. To put that into perspective, if you're a Muslim parent, it's more likely your child will be a hermaphrodite than a terrorist.
http://www.isna.org/faq/frequency
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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^ i think the absolute proportion of Muslim extremists is beside the point. Clearly the great majority of Muslims in the West are not. But surveys of Muslims settled in the West show that a substantial minority believe that blasphemy is grounds for violent retribution, and that provides the bed upon which extremism sleeps.
Secondly, Jihadism is a virus within Islam. Most mosquitoes do not carry malaria - but when you cannot test for the virus directly, you have to control the vector in your environment.
Thirdly, Muslims even in the West have the natural and universal tendency to relate to other nations along lines of religion, values and heritage. That means they relate more strongly to other Muslim countries than to our traditional allies. That means that significant Muslim immigration will hinder the defence of our values. It is not extremism - but it does advance The interests of Islam more than those of secular liberalism.
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Two more flags before I die! |
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Tannin 
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
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