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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:28 am
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G'day mate, thanks for making it clear.... When you said "What are the major corporations who control this oil doing to secure their own corporate assets which sit on their own balance sheets and are already subject to market pricing based on very transparent risks? ", I thought you were encouraging BP et al to go into the "security" business ! As your quoted articles indicate, the oilcos do evacuate their own staff at their own expense, quite rightly.

I completely agree with you that this political risk was part of the investment risk that the IOCs took on, and will have been factored into their economics. No way should governments take over that risk, or bail it out with the blood of squaddies from Manchester, Houston, Bathurst or anywhere else. However, i am reasonably sure that any Western military intervention will not be to recover or protect the fairly modest investments made by western oilcos in Iraq.

Westen intervention should, however, ensure that the oil reserves of Iraq, Syria etc do not fall into the hands of ISIL, as that would mean this vast fortune being controlled by a fanatical Al-Qaeda-like sect. It would also provide them with resources to attack the scantily-populated Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. If production were to stop from those places, the Great Depression would probably pale into insignificance.

Is there a chance that ISIL could do that ? I'm somewhat doubtful, but I didn't think the Taliban could capture Afghanistan. ISIL seem to be controlling a lot of territory amidst a political vacuum, and the sect with the petrodollars will attract many willing fighters (and potentially WMDs) in that highly militarised part of the world.

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Last edited by Mugwump on Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:18 am; edited 1 time in total
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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:15 am
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In 10 years we will be back fighting a Kurdish uprising with the Kurds armed to the hilt thanks to the West. In the meantime as long as Ebola wipes out most of Africa the West really won't give a *hit.
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rocketronnie 



Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Location: Reservoir

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:01 am
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None of them. I'm havin me beer n choof n watchin big truck racin on the telly. Wot about aid fer us Aussies firzt? Me bloody aunty needs a heart operation after scarfin her favoirite Maccas fer twenny years but she gets no help all the help goes ter some terrst wiv a diseese.
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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:32 am
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Mugwump wrote:
Westen intervention should, however, ensure that the oil reserves of Iraq, Syria etc do not fall into the hands of ISIL, as that would mean this vast fortune being controlled by a fanatical Al-Qaeda-like sect. It would also provide them with resources to attack the scantily-populated Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. If production were to stop from those places, the Great Depression would probably pale into insignificance.


I don't think I could ever endorse a war for oil. Not sure why anyone would think that a Middle-Eastern terrorist group has less moral right to Middle-Eastern oil than an American corporation (like the many that swooped in after the 2003 invasion). Of course it'd be a massive economic blow to lose these resources, but surely most people would agree that that's not a good enough reason to start a war. I think we've come to expect a higher standard of foreign policy than that.

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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:36 am
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Tell me more about it.
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think positive Libra

Side By Side


Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:40 am
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HAL wrote:
Tell me more about it.


gees Hal don't encourage the essays!!

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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:43 am
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"it" being it'd be a massive economic blow to lose these resources but most people would agree that that's not a good enough reason to start a war?
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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Location: Ballarat!

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:51 am
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It is not now, nor has ever been about the oil.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/arnold-ahlert/the-war-for-oil-myth/

Read that, yes the source is a bit dodgy but the facts are sound and the author cites his sources throughout the article. I'm sure a bit of digging would show up plenty more showing what a nonsense this whole 'War for Oil' garbage is.

As for bringing it up in regards to any current military action against IS, I just can't even begin to go into how ridiculous that is.

Now, if you wanted to argue about US military positioning itself to contain Russia or China by having a strategic presence in the region I may start to listen, but please, please stop going on about the damn oil.

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:41 am
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Not saying this one necessarily is, Wokko, though it would hardly surprise me if it turned out to be a motivating factor. Was just responding to Mugwump's suggestion that it ought to be a motivating factor (and he's hardly a raving neo-con—if he is of that opinion, what might some of the big business shills in US congress think? Shocked)
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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:24 pm
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David wrote:
Not saying this one necessarily is, Wokko, though it would hardly surprise me if it turned out to be a motivating factor. Was just responding to Mugwump's suggestion that it ought to be a motivating factor (and he's hardly a raving neo-con—if he is of that opinion, what might some of the big business shills in US congress think? Shocked)


Few things are worth going to war over other than pure self-defence : but preventing IsIL from controlling the war's oil supply is indeed worth going to war over. It's the Poland argument of 1940. There is such a thing as brutal evil in the world, and if you will not prevent it from controlling the destiny and resources of the world, then it will destroy you.

I agree that we have no right to go to war to control the world's oil supply. That is imperialism and it's wrong. We do not control the world's oil supply today, as OPEC and various oil shocks since 1973 demonstrate, but we should prevent a Hitleresque force with a taste for decapitation and crucifixion from doing so.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:52 pm
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Mugwump wrote:
David wrote:
Not saying this one necessarily is, Wokko, though it would hardly surprise me if it turned out to be a motivating factor. Was just responding to Mugwump's suggestion that it ought to be a motivating factor (and he's hardly a raving neo-con—if he is of that opinion, what might some of the big business shills in US congress think? Shocked)


Few things are worth going to war over other than pure self-defence : but preventing IsIL from controlling the war's oil supply is indeed worth going to war over. It's the Poland argument of 1940. There is such a thing as brutal evil in the world, and if you will not prevent it from controlling the destiny and resources of the world, then it will destroy you.

I agree that we have no right to go to war to control the world's oil supply. That is imperialism and it's wrong. We do not control the world's oil supply today, as OPEC and various oil shocks since 1973 demonstrate, but we should prevent a Hitleresque force with a taste for decapitation and crucifixion from doing so.

Ok, I'm calling Godwin's law on you, Mugwump Wink

ISIS has gone from an unverified collective of unverified size, composition, alliance and reach, with the notable high-tech skills of posting macabre videos on YouTube like a psychopath in a basement somewhere, to the Pre-WW2 war machine of Germany!

The only argument this resembles in the slightest is the grossly misleading and ultimately destructive Saddam Hussein arguments of 2002, except Saddam was far more powerful than ISIS. It's a clutching at straws; a concession there is no serious argument!

Sober up, good man!

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:08 pm
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Wokko wrote:
It is not now, nor has ever been about the oil.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/arnold-ahlert/the-war-for-oil-myth/

Read that, yes the source is a bit dodgy but the facts are sound and the author cites his sources throughout the article. I'm sure a bit of digging would show up plenty more showing what a nonsense this whole 'War for Oil' garbage is.

As for bringing it up in regards to any current military action against IS, I just can't even begin to go into how ridiculous that is.

Now, if you wanted to argue about US military positioning itself to contain Russia or China by having a strategic presence in the region I may start to listen, but please, please stop going on about the damn oil.

Oh dear, Wokko. The facts could be 100% sound and it wouldn't matter because they're irrelevant.

It's not a national war over oil and never was; that's the dumbest straw man attempt I've seen thus far. The author is responding to pimply teenage YouTube arguments, not serious discussion.

It's about private capital using the state as best it can to protect and/or enlarge its assets. Any "Libertarian" worth her salt who is not trying to win a teenage argument against "Liberals" would be comfortable with that.

Sometimes, capital has opposing sides; sometimes, elections intervene; sometimes, the state runs out of money; sometimes, other powers intervene. Oh so much reality crowding in on that straw man!

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:55 pm
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pietillidie wrote:
Mugwump wrote:
David wrote:
Not saying this one necessarily is, Wokko, though it would hardly surprise me if it turned out to be a motivating factor. Was just responding to Mugwump's suggestion that it ought to be a motivating factor (and he's hardly a raving neo-con—if he is of that opinion, what might some of the big business shills in US congress think? Shocked)


Few things are worth going to war over other than pure self-defence : but preventing IsIL from controlling the war's oil supply is indeed worth going to war over. It's the Poland argument of 1940. There is such a thing as brutal evil in the world, and if you will not prevent it from controlling the destiny and resources of the world, then it will destroy you.

I agree that we have no right to go to war to control the world's oil supply. That is imperialism and it's wrong. We do not control the world's oil supply today, as OPEC and various oil shocks since 1973 demonstrate, but we should prevent a Hitleresque force with a taste for decapitation and crucifixion from doing so.

Ok, I'm calling Godwin's law on you, Mugwump Wink

ISIS has gone from an unverified collective of unverified size, composition, alliance and reach, with the notable high-tech skills of posting macabre videos on YouTube like a psychopath in a basement somewhere, to the Pre-WW2 war machine of Germany!

The only argument this resembles in the slightest is the grossly misleading and ultimately destructive Saddam Hussein arguments of 2002, except Saddam was far more powerful than ISIS. It's a clutching at straws; a concession there is no serious argument!

Sober up, good man!


Laughing Yes, I might be overreaching a bit - and the nazi analogy can oversimplify ... let's say instead that they are not unlike a kind of excursionary Pol Pot, which is perhaps more apt.

I think they're a bit more of a threat than you do - they tap into sectarian hatreds and they are having clear military successes, albeit against weak opposition. But yes, we need to advance with caution. Still, if they do threaten world oil supplies - and I'd not put it past them in such a disoriented and disturbed part of the world - I'd throw everything at them (if the Isaraelis have not already by then)...

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Tannin 

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Ballarat

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:03 pm
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Oil is vastly over-rated as a key factor in this era. People still pushing the oil-as-motivation line are just showing how hopelessly out of touch they are. Oil used to be a crucial, arguably the crucial factor in geopolitics and especially so in the Middle-east, and remained so until quite recently. But no longer.

The United States no longer depends on Middle-eastern oil to survive. Because of the unconventional oil and gas revolution, the US is now self-sufficient in petroleum and even exporting it. Even Europe doesn't need it as absolutely and desperately as it did a decade or three back: North Sea oil has been a factor, and while Europe still imports a lot, it has broadened its petroleum supply to tap into other sources as well, notably Russia. Oil remains important, but in the context of this conflict, its primary importance is as a source of income for the IS madmen. Turkey really, really needs to get its act together and close that border to cut off the exports.

(PS. I haven't read Wokko's link yet.)

(PPS. OK, now I have read it. It's a load of bile-fed drivel, and out of date anyway.)

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:31 pm
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Tannin wrote:
Oil is vastly over-rated as a key factor in this era. People still pushing the oil-as-motivation line are just showing how hopelessly out of touch they are. Oil used to be a crucial, arguably the crucial factor in geopolitics and especially so in the Middle-east, and remained so until quite recently. But no longer.

The United States no longer depends on Middle-eastern oil to survive. Because of the unconventional oil and gas revolution, the US is now self-sufficient in petroleum and even exporting it. Even Europe doesn't need it as absolutely and desperately as it did a decade or three back: North Sea oil has been a factor, and while Europe still imports a lot, it has broadened its petroleum supply to tap into other sources as well, notably Russia. Oil remains important, but in the context of this conflict, its primary importance is as a source of income for the IS madmen. Turkey really, really needs to get its act together and close that border to cut off the exports.

(PS. I haven't read Wokko's link yet.)

(PPS. OK, now I have read it. It's a load of bile-fed drivel, and out of date anyway.)


You make perfectly good points, but crude, and natural gas, account for ca 50% of world energy demand. Even the US would crumble economically if oil prices spiked dramatically again, if only because of the effect it'd have on its trading partners amid the fragility of the post-idiot-Bush US economy.

Much of what happened in 2008 can be attributed to the $147/bbl spike in 2007 (as the 1991-93 recession related to the spike of 1990, the post-1998 boom to $10/bbl oil, etc). I don't think any other product has oil's volatility, or its ability to cause such ramifying economic damage - as shown by the fact that the rise of US shale has barely eased the price of oil below $100/bbl. That price stickiness is a result of the increasing cost of extraction from new sources, which makes the low-cost MidEast more critical, not less.

All of that is partly why I woudl support the human race weaning ourselves off the stuff as fast as we can. Unfortunately, that's a large role for political leadership, of a kind that has mysteriously vanished from the earth when it is perhaps most needed.

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