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David 
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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<Skids' indispensable compendium of Muslim atrocities has been moved here:
http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=76944
Please use that thread for any further updates and cutting remarks about Islam being "the religion of peace". This thread is reserved for discussion about ISIS and related issues.
Cheers,
David for BBMods>
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"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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A very interesting article below about the future of the Assad regime and questions as to whether the regime is on the brink of collapsing as a rebel coalition led by Al-Nusra Front and other groups have seized territory off government forces in recent weeks.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-assad-regime-is-in-huge-trouble-2015-4
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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Can't wait to see the back of that Putin-backed mass murderer, but I wonder what this will mean for the fight against ISIS. Any thoughts, Jezza?
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"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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swoop42 
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
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Assad is bad but just wait for Syria under the control of ISIS.
You only have to look at Libya to see how things can get even worse with the removal of a despot.
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He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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Assad is the lesser of three evils. Your choices are stable despotism under Assad, chaotic tribalism under the rebels or murderous, brutal theocracy under ISIS.
The west will aim for chaotic tribalism (see Libya), but will probably end up with either a Sunni theocracy or total shit fight including Iraqi Shiites and Iran, Kurds and Western bombing.
Hope for Assad's forces to regain the initiative because a defeat for them is the worst option by a mile. |
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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No question that an ISIS-led theocracy would be brutal, but Assad has already slaughtered 100,000, and will happily turn the guns on his country's civilians again if anyone dares to criticise or protest against his nepotocracy. How much more brutal can you get than that?
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/100000-civilians-killed-assad-forces-2011-report-590203858
I'm all for stability above 'moral' victoriesit's pretty clear that Iraq would be better off now with Saddam Hussein still in chargebut, a Taliban-style ISIS dictatorship would also eventually maintain stability in its own murderous way. I don't blame international leaders for seeking a third alternative.
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"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
Last edited by David on Thu May 07, 2015 4:10 am; edited 2 times in total |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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^Yes, but Assad shaves and wears suits; he must be the good one, surely?
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In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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^Ignoring the source, sadly, any sane person would assume that kind of thing outright. This is one reason why the complete silence on matters of domestic securityspending and quality control for startersbaffles me.
Even worse, the hysteria and overseas interference is presumably only heightening the local security risk.
What if this lack of maturity and discipline has started a no-win nutter cycle, trapping the rest of us in an ever-increasing game of both cost and risk? When the dynamics of a small planet and billions of people are in play, the old framing of conflict won't do; how "right" you think you are is playground stuff.
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In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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| David wrote: | | Can't wait to see the back of that Putin-backed mass murderer, but I wonder what this will mean for the fight against ISIS. Any thoughts, Jezza? |
If Assad's forces were to collapse and he was get to overthrown, the power struggle would become one of an inter-rebel conflict between the so-called moderate rebel coalition such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against ISIS vying for power. Of course we have the Kurds up in the North attempting to protect its land as we saw with Kobane for example as well.
Also another question to ponder is where does the Al-Nusra Front sit in the context of this war. They're not exactly allies with ISIS after internal struggles that can be explained through the ISIS-Al-Qaeda schism last year but they're not allies with the moderate rebels either despite being in a coalition to take over territory currently held by Assad's forces due to the common goal to overthrow Assad obviously.
Assad is a nasty individual who's committed atrocious acts against his own citizens and removing him from power would be liberating for the Syrian people who have been brutalised by him and have had their human rights and freedoms trampled on by him but I understand the sentiments shared from those who are concerned about what will happen to Syria if he's overthrown. Will Syria become another Libya or are we already there as we speak?
The problem with the Syrian Civil War which has spilled over into Iraq is the fact that we have three or four different coalitions fighting against one another so Assad's potential toppling wouldn't end the war necessarily. It would be concerning if he was overthrown because I'd argue that the emergence of ISIS has actually diminished the power base that the 'moderate-rebels' were establishing throughout 2011 to 2013 and it's only Assad who has benefited indirectly from ISIS' emergence last year so if he was to be removed from the equation Syria's future would look very bleak one would suspect.
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| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 |
Last edited by Jezza on Fri May 08, 2015 2:57 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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Part of the rich tapestry along the Israel - Syrian border: Hezbollah, Druze, Al Nusra, Free Syria fighters, Assad Forces, amongst others...
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4654057,00.html
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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In response to threats, Victoria Police has changed it's operating procedures. The big one is no officer will work alone and that should never have happened in the first place. Other measures are announced in the news. This is a direct response to these nuffies who wanted to kill a Police Officer on ANZAC day.
The flow on effect will affect services and I have been advised (approached) that the Government and Police will go back to appointing Civilians for certain roles as in administration and non enforcement roles. So just like the AFL has gone back to Reserves, Vic Pol is going back to Civilians in their ranks. |
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